2017 Trade Deadline Rumors/Speculation/Discussion

[Austinfan]

It merely means that they can take one bench spot reserved for a backup 1B/OF type.
As far as development, if Alfaro isn't ready, and this is a .500 team next year, are you going to rush him out there?
Right now, unless Rupp keeps up this hitting streak or Knapp continues his upward trajectory, we don't have a #1 C.
But Alfaro is clearly #3 until he improves both defensively and at the plate - in the show, performance, not tools, matters.

Think of Alfaro as our own "Rule 5" player next year.
And they may want to watch the progress of Grullon at Reading next year, if his bat improves, his defense makes him the heir apparent.

[andyb]

Rupp is on one of his hot streaks. Great for him. But we know him well enough that there is likely a 6-40 stretch with 18 Ks in his future. That does not mean he is not a legitimate major league catcher even if he is more of a backup than a starter.

That has value. His value may never be higher than it is today in the middle of a hot streak. As Branch Rickey said, trade a player a year too soon rather than a year too late. Buy low, sell high. Trade him now. Start Knapp for a month with Logan Moore backing him up and let Alfaro share the job in September to see what we have got.

Next year the odds are about 50% that Alfaro is our starter (even if Rupp were around). Knapp is a perfectly acceptable bridge. 2018 looks to be another rebuilding year. At some point you need to see if the future kids are actually the future.

[Austinfan]

Actually, we really don't know anything about the players on this team.
Stairs has made a substantial improvement in player performance, and while it's taken a while for some players, the team is a much better hitting team than it was last year or this spring. And since the veterans have flopped or been injured, that improvement is primarily the "kids." How much can they improve? Has Franco turned it around? Are Altherr and Williams for real? Stay tuned!

Rupp now has a full season worth of ABs (587) over the last two seasons:
.247/.310/.447/.757
If he doesn't improve at all, that's still pretty solid for a starting catcher. He's a 2.4 WAR (BR) player over that stretch.

We have no clue whether Alfaro can hit ML pitching, he has a .660 OPS in AAA ball at age 24. He has a fundamental flaw in plate discipline, and hasn't shown the ability/willingness to adjust that Williams did this year.

Knapp is an even tougher call, he's putting up similar numbers in Philly so far as he did in Lehigh last year at age 24 (.720 OPS but .124 ISO).
What makes him weird is he hit for power in Lakewood, not in Clearwater, power in Reading, not in Lehigh or Philly.
As as switchhitter, he has extra value as a backup catcher, and he can play multiple positions.

Grullon is the hardest to project, hasn't hit much but was under age at every stop, Lakewood at 19, repeated at 20, Clearwater at 21, now he's in Reading.
He's probably the best defensive catcher at any level right now (arm is rated at 80), so the question is the hit tool, but he's young enough to spend 2-3 years learning how to hit.

[andyb]

Sidebar - what actual evidence is there that Stairs has achieved "substantial improvement in player performance"? Not sure there is much. There have been as many players who have regressed some (Franco, Hernandez, Herrera) as have improved. It is kind of an urban legend that Stairs has made any difference at all and certainly one where it will take much more data to know definitively.

And Rupp should be traded because he is not getting any better and not seen as that good defensively. Buy low, sell high. Simple economics 101.

[nycphils]

He's probably the best defensive catcher at any level right now (arm is rated at 80), so the question is the hit tool, but he's young enough to spend 2-3 years learning how to hit.

Not accurate according to at least this BP report this week:

Phillies also promoted C Deivi Grullon from High-A to Double-A. Grullon, 21 years old, has a plus arm, both accurate and strong, and is a solid defender, though can get very lazy with balls in the dirt and showing poor technique. There is leverage to his power game, but his weight pulls him out of really driving into pitches. Furthermore, he pulls everything, with a 49.1 percent pull rate, and swings very often, walking in 4.2 percent of his High-A plate appearances. These numbers don’t portend well to providing a good bat. He is at least a back-up catcher, should he improve his receiving skills.

[Austinfan]

Franco didn't regress, go check his second half numbers last year, pitchers had figured him out. Stairs is trying to teach him how to hit, how to work a count, take outside pitches to RF, there are signs of progress, but it's obvious he's a slow learner (just watch him, he'll have a week where he applies what he's learned, then pulls a HR and goes back to being pull happy and opening up).
Hernandez didn't regress, he just got injured, looks the same as last year.
Herrera is uncoachable. And hard to say he's regressed, he's just himself, awful two months, great three months, go figure.

The team went from the bottom to close to the top in pitches seen per AB, and they've improved in every offensive area.

[Austinfan]

Basically, that says he's 21 with great tools, but gets sloppy at times defensively (though note "he's a solid defender").
Alfaro has a similar defensive profile at 24. Big arm, sloppy defensive mechanics.

My problem with Alfaro is he shouldn't be developing right now if he's a top prospect, at this point he should be developed and forcing his way to the majors.
If all he's going to be is a .660 ML hitter, we'd better keep Rupp.

[bigegypt0417]

Basically, that says he's 21 with great tools, but gets sloppy at times defensively (though note "he's a solid defender").
Alfaro has a similar defensive profile at 24. Big arm, sloppy defensive mechanics.

My problem with Alfaro is he shouldn't be developing right now if he's a top prospect, at this point he should be developed and forcing his way to the majors.
If all he's going to be is a .660 ML hitter, we'd better keep Rupp.

why does he have to be a top prospect?

keep Rupp?

what is your fascination with mediocre major leaguers?

[Austinfan]

Mediocre ML leaguers are better than prospects who RIGHT NOW project to below replacement players.
There is simply no evidence that Alfaro is ready for prime time.
.750 ML OPS >> .660 AAA OPS

[allentown]

Mediocre ML leaguers are better than prospects who RIGHT NOW project to below replacement players.
There is simply no evidence that Alfaro is ready for prime time.
.750 ML OPS >> .660 AAA OPS

Given the state of the Phillies, both this year and likely next, the RIGHT NOW is not the significant time to base decisions upon. The time of interest is the next time we have a team good enough to contend for the playoffs, not merely good enough to contend for .500.

To me, that means we are in a period of testing out our high ceiling prospects and moving on from the guys who aren't all that young and who have shown that their ceiling is average. If we were ready to contend for the playoffs next year, my answer would be different, but we can afford and should want to get the hard knocks MLB adjustment period over for as many of our young guys as possible. I think I've seen enough of Rupp, Joseph, and Galvis to know that they are not the future for the Phillies. If the goal was to avoid any possible weak links on a contending 2018/2019 Phillies, it would be a different story. Alfaro is out of options and has a couple of loud tools. Crawford and Hoskins seem ready. Kingery is close to ready. We have 2nd-tier prospects to protect on the 40-man. It is time to move on from Joseph, Rupp, and either Galvis or Hernandez.

[andyb]

Franco didn't regress, go check his second half numbers last year, pitchers had figured him out. Stairs is trying to teach him how to hit, how to work a count, take outside pitches to RF, there are signs of progress, but it's obvious he's a slow learner (just watch him, he'll have a week where he applies what he's learned, then pulls a HR and goes back to being pull happy and opening up).
Hernandez didn't regress, he just got injured, looks the same as last year.
Herrera is uncoachable. And hard to say he's regressed, he's just himself, awful two months, great three months, go figure.

The team went from the bottom to close to the top in pitches seen per AB, and they've improved in every offensive area

Franco has not gotten any better certainly.

Nothing you posted changes the central fact that there is ZERO evidence that Stairs has had a positive OR a negative effect as batting coach. Getting hitters to work counts and swing at strikes is not exactly novel instruction and what Stairs is doing is likely very similar to past hitting coaches. He is not any radical guru with a track record of success. He is just another coach with an unproven record of getting through to 24 year olds. All your cherry-picked stats miss the big picture that nothing much has changed.

[Austinfan]

Believe whatever you want, I'll stick to my observations.

I see a team that may have turned the corner, if the young pitching improves, they could be over .500 next year.
I wouldn't make any hasty decisions if I were Klentak until I see how the season plays out.
At some point you stop trading real players for prospects, and start building a team incrementally, that is, you're good enough to be competitive, so you gradually improve, add assets without hurting your current chances of winning and see how things develop.
Too early for big moves, but they may be past worshiping at the alter of My Lady of the Perpetual Rebuild

[allentown]

but they may be past worshiping at the alter of My Lady of the Perpetual Rebuild

You're the one who talks about a 5-year rebuilding project and says we've only been rebuilding for less than two years and that the clock didn't really start until Klentak was hired and that year one was merely a transition year of assessment. I'm the one who complains that the original 2019, moved to 2020, date for contention, first mentioned by Gillick, is now no longer mentioned and calls for a fierce sense of urgency in making the rebuild as quick as possible (by which the trade for more international allocation is a very positive sign of both urgency and organizational change). But... if this is, in fact, 5-year rebuild, then Joseph, Galvis, Rupp, Hernandez are not starters on our next post-season team. Have you just switched over to my side on appropriate rebuild timing?.

Btw, I don't think a team should ever stop trading 'real players' for prospects. Average or slightly less than average players are fairly fungible and a team should always be looking to upgrade from that level. There is especially reason to do so before those marginal players become expensive and/or enter the age-fall-off phase of their careers. A team always needs renewal with rookies, lest it go stale and/or age out. That was the problem with the golden age Phillies: everyone got old, expensive, and faded at the same time and there were no rising above average players to replace them and the farm was weak, because we both failed to trade aging players for youth when we should have and were so over-faced by the challenge of rebuilding the farm with end of first round or comp-round picks that we became outrageous gamblers with our primo picks -- the few remaining to us.

[Austinfan]

The international allocation have little to do with THIS rebuild, 16 year old LA players won't arrive until say 2022-2023?
Even next summer's amateur draft won't arrive until 2021-2022 at the earliest, unless there's an exceptional college pitcher available.
The players that will make us competitive in the next couple years are ALREADY on the roster.

Next year will be the third season, at that point you've stripped the organization of veteran assets and you're developing players.
Rupp will be 31, Galvis and Hernandez 30 in 2020, that's certainly young enough to be the veteran foundation that's gradually pushed aside as the next wave "hit's the beach."
Doesn't mean you don't trade them, but there's no urgency, at some point you want to build a solid winning team and then add talent.
Young players aren't served by losing year after year, and having no older players in the clubhouse to set the tone.

From this point forward, the success of the team will primarily be driven by the development of the starting pitchers, and I doubt you're gonna get a #1 for Rupp, Galvis or Hernandez, or even a #2. So trading them is not going to have a big impact, trading them for second tier prospects in A ball won't even be noticeable for four years.

If Kingery finishes hot, or starts next season hot, and looks ready, that's when you move Hernandez.
When Crawford looks like he's finally figured it out, that's when you move Galvis.
With Alfaro, I'd just trade him in a package, go with Rupp and Knapp, and look to add a top catching prospect - I think Alfaro isn't ready, shouldn't be starting with a young pitching staff, and may never hit ML pitching.

[zambonir]

And Rupp should be traded because he is not getting any better and not seen as that good defensively. Buy low, sell high. Simple economics 101.

You're only selling high if there's a market for him. There isn't. Contending teams aren't looking to pick up a defensively suspect offensively streaky back-up catcher for six weeks. There are five better catching options out there.

He's (marginally) more valuable on the off-season market because you can also trade him for a greater variety of returns.

I also think the Phillies value Rupp, Joseph and Galvis a lot more than everyone's favorite 41st player in the minor leagues. There really isn't a rush to move them if the return is terrible. They can't keep all of them on the 40 (given Alfaro, Hoskins and Crawford all need to be on it too) but I don't think it is the thing Klentak is worried about this weekend. Galvis and Rupp will probably be Phillies on Rule V day if there's not enough time to do the right deal before then (but the truth is there's plenty of time).

[andyb]

Teams are looking for controllable assets more and more at the deadline so I would not totally dismiss it. What guys like Rupp and Galvis offer lower payroll teams is potentially a player that will help now that can stay on their roster and contribute in the future at a lower cost than free agents.

There used to be a firm dividing line between deadline and offseason deals. That line is much blurrier today than it was 5-10 years ago. The Hamels deal was one flavor of this (both Hamels and Diekman were controllable).

This does not mean Rupp has great value. But he belongs in the majors, is playing well now, and is cheap. Not sure we get more from him in the offseason than we do now. It has to be the right fit of course, but that is the GM's job to find a team where it is the right fit.

[allentown]

The international allocation have little to do with THIS rebuild, 16 year old LA players won't arrive until say 2022-2023?
Even next summer's amateur draft won't arrive until 2021-2022 at the earliest, unless there's an exceptional college pitcher available.

Since we won't have primo draft position much longer and our payroll will rise as we begin to contend and reach post-season, I see both this year's international class and next summers Rule 4 draft as key to the rebuild. To me, a proper rebuild establishes the base for a long run of contending teams, not just a pop-up WS. So yes, I want a contending team by 2019, but I also want a continuing rich flow of young talent from the farm through the 2020s. The golden age faltered, because we didn't have that flow of young talent and had to resort to expensive, older FA. A team cannot sustain that approach for long.

[allentown]

I doubt you're gonna get a #1 for Rupp, Galvis or Hernandez, or even a #2. So trading them is not going to have a big impact, trading them for second tier prospects in A ball won't even be noticeable for four years.

For my taste, you are just too fixated upon the necessity to move the needle substantially with one trade or do nothing. Of course you won't get a #1/2 pitcher for any of these guys, unless the team you are trading with totally messes up and fails to recognize a #1/2 talent among their young talent, as we did with Ferguson Jenkins many years back. Yes, an A-league pitcher will take several years to arrive, but the ceiling is higher, giving a small chance you help a young pitcher improve and end up with a #1/2. Actually, I'd be happy to get a #3/4 future starter from a trade of one of these guys. A guy from A-league won't need to be on the 40-man.

You may not be impressed by the 40th man on a roster, but prospects not thought of as primo often move up drastically in a couple year span. It is still hard to tell how good guys like Tocci, Tromp, Pullin, Tirado, Grullon will be in a couple years. I remember how much the stock in Howard and Ruiz rose in the two seasons after they played in CLW and how much Altherr's stock has risen in the past 2 years. Odubel Herrera was a guy who just missed the 40-man cut.

The Gillick maxim to keep constantly improving the 25-man roster by little increments is also applicable to the 40-man roster and to the teams stock of the guys who are not quite old enough or good enough to be on the 40-man. A trade of a middle (baseball)-aged vet for a guy who will be a #3/4 starter in 3 or 4 years may not yank the arrow ahead substantially on the rebuild, but it is worth doing. It is the steady accumulation of improvements like this which produce a sustained contender.

[Austinfan]

That FO went to the opposite extreme, no spending, bad scouting, trading prospects, signing mediocre middle relief pitchers and sacrificing top draft picks.

Of course you want to add assets, but there's no urgency to make deals just to make deals.
Klentak just showed he knows how to wheel and deal, 6 prospects plus $1+M in international allocations for three veterans that would be gone.
For the right offer, I'd trade anyone on this team or farm system other than Nola.
But the idea we have to trade starting players on a team that turned it around for second tier prospects is a bit of a stretch.
At this point, we should be looking for upgrades, not bodies.

[zambonir]

Teams are looking for controllable assets more and more at the deadline so I would not totally dismiss it. What guys like Rupp and Galvis offer lower payroll teams is potentially a player that will help now that can stay on their roster and contribute in the future at a lower cost than free agents.

True, but those deals still tend to be for better players. I just don't think Rupp and Joseph have much value and I don't think the Phillies want to trade Galvis. That doesn't mean Klentak hasn't solicited or fielded offers for all of them (and we know he has for Joseph), just don't know that they are there.

Plus they've already told Alfaro he's not coming to the big leagues this year (at least not until the LV season is over). Of course I would not let that stop me from trading Rupp, you can always do the same thing they did last year with Ruiz.