Discussion

julio 2017-07-13 20:39:57 UTC #201

OK... I did the homework (somebody has to...). There was ONE report I could find that referenced the Phils having a "standing offer" for Neshek. That report was from June 24th, by Jim Salisbury - who reported he heard this from "a source."

Here's a link to Salisbury's report from June 24th:

Now, Salisbury is among the best of the Philadelphia writers who cover the Phillies, so I think we can assume he didn't report this without hearing it from somebody he considers credible.

That said, this is a single mention by Salisbury, just under three weeks ago, of something he heard from "a source." I found no confirmation reported by anybody, or any reference from Salisbury that he'd had any confirmation from any second source.

Keep in mind that we don't know who Salisbury's source was - and whether that source was passing on "real" information, or perhaps something else entirely that the Phils' front office might have wanted "out there." We simply do not know. And we have no idea whether that "standing offer," if real, is attractive - it could be a bag of used baseballs, for all we know.

There's also the fact that this report was three weeks ago. Even if it was real at the time, it might well no longer be on the table. If some other club did make an offer (low-ball or other), that club could very well have found an alternative relief solution in the intervening three weeks. We do not know.

So, it's not uninteresting... but I would certainly not go so far as to write, "We know they have a standing offer for Neshek."

Other recent comments about Neshek I found:

Nick Cafardo did recently mention Neshek in an article on trade possibilities, but didn't mention any standing or outstanding offer. He wrote:

Neshek, an NL All-Star, has been scouted by a number of teams, including the Royals, Red Sox, and Yankees. The sidearming 36-year-old has been effective against both lefties (.188) and righties (.233) this season.

Ken Rosenthal tweeted about Neshek (and the Nationals) on June 22nd:

So there's clearly some level of interest - although that's not exactly news at this point. But again, has anybody made a serious offer. Maybe, based on Salisbury's June 24th bit. But we really don't know - and I suspect that's the way the Phillies brain trust wants it. They don't negotiate in public.

zambonir 2017-07-13 20:51:16 UTC #202

Yup it is more likely than not that while the Salisbury report is not exactly untrue, it's also something the Phillies wanted out there as a message to other clubs. (And, it goes without saying, it's not an offer they wanted to take. Not three weeks ago and not today.)

andyb 2017-07-13 20:57:40 UTC #203

I am guessing there is a "standing offer" for everybody. We probably offered our 30th best prospect to the Marlins for Stanton as long as they picked up $280 million of salary or something like that. Much more importantly it has been acknowledged that multiple teams are interested in Neshek and by an objective analysis he is one of the better relief arms on the market. They probably have 5-10 offers for him. A good GM needs to find the best match in terms of dollars and prospects and make it happen. It is relatively easy to do that when you have a player other teams want.

zambonir 2017-07-13 20:59:32 UTC #204

While I share your irritation w/ CD's aversion to links I am pretty sure the Salisbury piece was posted here, or at least referenced in a non-cryptic way, at the time. In fact I think I posted something sarcastically about how after Neshek is traded we'll be able to complain about how they should have taken the earlier offer, even though we will never know what it was.

I think Gelb has also written about this in a way that didn't necessarily make me think he had his own source, but that he at least believed the Salisbury report was credible, and wasn't just parroting a secondhand rumor.

zambonir 2017-07-13 21:03:24 UTC #205

Rosenthal wrote that Stanton would clear August trade waivers, meaning no team would be willing to risk the Marlins not pulling him back. He may be wrong about the latter part, because as much as the Marlins may want to shed all that payroll they also need talent and it would be a PR disaster.

But, either way - if he's not traded before August, he will go on revocable waivers, 'cause nearly everyone does. Would you claim him? Worst-case, he's yours, and it costs nothing but cash.. Best-case, you make a deal. Medium-case, they pull him back and no deal is reached.

andyb 2017-07-13 21:11:08 UTC #206

The Marlins would not let him go for nothing though. They would pull him back no matter what because they have franchise credibility issues and as you say it would be a PR disaster. So while it might make financial sense to let him go, the Marlins would not do that.

Plus there is value in Stanton as a player (even if only a 2-3 WAR player) that they will not let go uncompensated. That is valuable in a pennant race. Because of the money there is less incentive to claim him. And every incentive for him to pass through waivers. Since he would almost certainly be pulled back though, in essence you can't get him for nothing.

Slinging_Southpaw 2017-07-13 21:29:12 UTC #207

Numbers spiked while playing in Colorado.

zambonir 2017-07-13 21:57:24 UTC #208

But the answer then, given how high the Phillies' claim position will be, is that they absolutely should claim Stanton. It's zero-risk if you are sure he gets pulled back.The only problem is you can't really do the kind of deal the Phillies would want to do in August.

allentown 2017-07-13 22:20:59 UTC #209

But then they deal with us or nobody. If we are at all interested, then getting him for $$ only, just paying the remainder of his contract is cheap. If the Marlins are eager to shed those future $, then we give them Joseph and a couple of mid-level prospects and they take it or leave it.,

zambonir 2017-07-13 22:40:57 UTC #210

For sure. But they can also walk away and go into the off-season. Only question there would be if the Phillies would be able to pick up where they left off, or if the Marlins would be like, "you had your chance."

Also, hopefully Joseph won't be on the Phillies in August.

Obviously this is just a rumor anyway but the Phillies don't want Stanton for his own sake, they want to use him to leverage Yelich, or, failing that, to leverage something else. But the Marlins wouldn't be able to provide "something else" in an August deal (they obviously aren't going to be moving tons of prospects, and anyone on the 40 has to go on waivers). It would have to be July or off-season.

andyb 2017-07-13 23:17:29 UTC #211

But if they think he will pass through waivers why risk getting him? If you really want to deal for him you might need time to put together a complicated deal without the waiver deadline looming.

I don't think they really want Stanton. Nice to have him. But he is not the path to instant respectability.

allentown 2017-07-13 23:46:02 UTC #212

Absolutely correct. It comes down to how determined they are to avoid his August and September salary and to go into the off-season knowing he's been traded and having the open budget and roster spot.

zambonir 2017-07-14 00:46:00 UTC #213

I agree they don't want him, and certainly not at 100% salary. That is just a very looong contract, they have money in their pocket and could handle the back-end financially, but not necessarily in terms of overall salary/luxury tax, especialy as he declines.

Also, tbh, I can't imagine a place I'd want to play less than Philadelphia if I were him (except New York or Boston of course). Can you imagine WIP if he put up another couple of .815 OPS seasons, which he surely will, while making that $?

Here's CSN Philly.

Would something like Franco, Velasquez, another pitcher and two outfielders from the Herrera-Nick Williams-Dylan Cozens-Roman Quinn group get it done?

tom81 2017-07-14 02:01:04 UTC #214

That's a huge overpay for the Phillies IMO. A straight up trade of Stanton, taking all of his salary, for one of Williams, Cozens or Quinn I think is fair. The rest of the package for Yelich is way too much.

andyb 2017-07-14 02:15:54 UTC #215

I guess fundamentally I don't care about Stanton because the contract is so big and he is not Bryce Harper quality. And we basically just drafted Yelich types 2 times in a row in the first round. I am all for rearranging the decks if we have duplication, but if I invest lots of money I really want to get a #1 starter first. I might even want a 3B second which is what makes Machado attractive. Spending money needs to be strategic unless someone like Stanton is literally given away for no prospects.

Austinfan 2017-07-14 02:21:13 UTC #216

Oh my God, we agree!

I think we need to grow the #1 (and Nola is on his way), but we can certainly use a solid #2 or so in his prime.
3B and C are our biggest holes, though I'm not ready to give up on Franco or Knapp/Alfaro, but if you could package them in a deal for a clear upgrade . . .

But this team is too far away right now to overpay for a "name."

andyb 2017-07-14 02:36:36 UTC #217

Nola is not a number one. Not even close. That should be our priority. We should be fine at catcher.

zambonir 2017-07-14 03:01:56 UTC #218

I think the general consensus is nobody (in MLB) wants to give up much of anything for Stanton.

I'm not so sure that Franco, Velasquez and a pitcher would be an overpay for Yelich if he was putting up his 2016 numbers, but he doesn't exactly seem to be what the Phillies need either. I believe you would include Herrera in a trade for him though, which resolves that (until the draft picks, as Andy mentioned, are ready).

Austinfan 2017-07-14 03:28:56 UTC #219

Nola when he is on is a #1, problem like most young pitchers has been injuries and consistency.

This year, despite his injury, he's 14th in FIP among SPs, and 27th in ERA
Over the last two years, among all pitchers who've thrown 180+ innings, Nola is 10th in FIP.
He's a work in progress, but to deny he has #1 potential is simply wrong.
To actually reach that potential, he has to be healthy and more consistent, but that applies to any prospect you might trade for, or Kilome and Sanchez.
But Nola has actually pitched at a high level in the majors.

He now consistently throws in the 92-93 range, with a plus curve and changeup when they're on, but both are works in progress.
Hamels at 24 had a ERA/FIP of 3.09/3.72, at 25, 4.32/3.72, he didn't peak until 26-31.
Nola just turned 24 in June.

nycphils 2017-07-14 03:46:28 UTC #220

Some people are just unable to call someone an Ace unless they possess a 96+MPH fastball. No question he's a #1 caliber if he keeps up his level of performance from June on. Will he? We shall see.

A 2020 rotation of Nola, Sixto and 3 of Kilome, Seranthony, Medina, Pivetta, JoJo and next year's #1 (Singer)? Would look pretty nice.