General Discussion

allentown 2017-07-30 21:09:34 UTC #1444

Crawford with another HR today.

tom81 2017-07-30 21:23:17 UTC #1445

This sounds like a nice problem to have, lots of good players.

EDmuch 2017-07-30 21:35:25 UTC #1446

Setting aside bias in either direction, the Galvis-Crawford and Herendez-Kingery battles could be very, very interesting.

Austinfan 2017-07-31 00:44:10 UTC #1447

Meanwhile Rupp and Knapp are neck and neck, Herrera has his stroke back.
Williams is starting to be exposed, but I want to see what Stairs can do with him.
Franco is really the one guy struggling, but he's been making steady progress since May, BB% up, OPS up, ISO up, and his K% is low for a guy with his power.
So given he doesn't turn 25 until the end of August, way too early to give up on him.
Joseph is a decent hitter, but his defense is so bad he needs to be a very good hitter.

phillychuck 2017-07-31 03:06:24 UTC #1448

Williams' last 4 games:

2/5
1/4
0/5
0/4

When a guy goes 0/9 he's most likely not being exposed, he's going through the usual ups and downs of a baseball season. Sometime you get the bear, sometimes (mostly) the bear gets you. You walk back to the dugout and try again.

Willie Mays had an 0/32 start to his career, and had a slump 3 years later where he was 0/29. He wasn't being exposed, he was in a bad run of luck. I can't conclude Williams is "beginning to be exposed" after an 0/9 over 2 games. Let's not jump to conclusions with a sample size of less than 10 ABs. Or, honestly, less than about 300.

bigegypt0417 2017-07-31 03:15:19 UTC #1449

AF loves to point out when a player fits his narrative even when it SSS. calling 9 at bats "exposed " is silly.

Austinfan 2017-07-31 03:40:36 UTC #1450

I watch the games and its obvious how pitchers are trying to get him out.
Williams is too aggressive, chases too many pitches out of the K-zone early in counts, digs himself into holes.
Teams are noticing that and try to get him to chase.
This was his problem in AAA ball, it'll be his problem in the Show.
They worked on that in AAA ball, one reason he improved this year, and I'm sure Stairs is pointing that out, and will try to get his swing to be a little quicker and to get him to wait on pitches and try to recognize what the pitcher is throwing and to not take the bait.

That's been his tendency his whole professional career, and his eventual success will depend on him learning to lay off pitches out of the K-zone.
It's one thing to be fooled and miss on a pitch, quite another to dig your own hole by chasing outside and high fastballs that you have almost no chance of hitting.
And it's why I've taken his quick start with a grain or two of salt.

You can see his raw skills, but hitting in the majors is not just about eye to hand coordination and bat speed, it's also about knowing how to work an AB.

phillychuck 2017-07-31 03:47:42 UTC #1451

We all watch the games AF. You can't determine anything on 9 ABs.

I call shenanigans.

It may turn out that Williams was playing over his head initially and he does trend down from here. But predicting that now is extrapolating from very sparse evidence.

Austinfan 2017-07-31 03:54:01 UTC #1452

It's not just 9 ABs, he's been hitting like this since he came up, pitchers were throwing strikes early and he hit them, now they're throwing more off the plate and try to get him to chase. At times he "gets it", at times he doesn't. Until he lays off bad pitches, the book on him will be to nibble and get him to chase.

He's not the only hitter, Joseph is learning not to chase low sliders, as is Franco, that's the pitch they jump on.
Herrera was selective for a couple months last year, since then he's pretty much a free swinger - but when he's hot it doesn't matter, he can look like crap for two pitches then hit a 400 ft line drive - but most hitters can't emulate him and have success.

Just watch Altherr work an AB v Williams and it's pretty obvious.

Of course, against Dickey, most power hitters are dead meat, guys like Hernandez and Galvis have a better shot with a short stroke, just trying to make contact, because you have to wait for the knuckle ball to decide where it wants to go (and so does the catcher!).

nycphils 2017-07-31 05:18:42 UTC #1453

Well, this is true, but not based on anything youve seen in the majors, let alone in the last nine ABs. It is based on the 800+ ABs he had at AAA. Actually, his work in the majors has been encouraging - that he has 5 BBs already is good based on his recent historical track record (e.g. 19 BBs in 527 ABs in 2016 at LHV).

Lucky_Beagle 2017-07-31 12:15:29 UTC #1454

Speaking of Williams I couldn't believe I heard them say on the tv yesterday he had 32 at bats when he had an 0-2 count in 90 at bats. Does this mean he is being too aggressive swinging at pitches that were balls, does it mean he is taking too many good pitches, or does it mean he isn't putting into play balls he is swinging at?

Austinfan 2017-07-31 12:28:23 UTC #1455

All of the above. Mostly too aggressive and swinging at pitches where it's hard to make good contact, Williams doesn't take a lot of strikes early in counts (Altherr does), which he should learn to do, especially the first time he sees a pitcher (so you can see his release point and motion and have a better chance of picking up the pitch out of his hand).

With less than two strikes, young hitters have to learn you don't want to swing at a pitch that's not in your "kill zone." Even if you hit it, you're likely to make an out (poor contact, low exit velocity). BABIP tends to reflect, speed, exit velocity and luck, over larger samples the luck fltters out.

This is why this team is frustrating to watch right now (and probably drives Stairs crazy at times). Young hitters want to hit, and have to learn to "work" an AB to get a pitch they can handle. Watching Herrera trying to hit a low slider is cringe worthy - he often decides to hit when the ball is leaving the pitcher's hand before he has a chance to recognize the pitch. This is why Stairs is reworking swings and trying to get hitters to keep their hands back, buy that extra tenth of a second to recognize the spin on a pitch.

A good way to see the difference is to watch the Phillies hitters and contrast them with good hitters on other teams, and how they handle ABs. Phllips for example, is a great technical hitter, tries to pound the ball with less than two strikes, then protects the plate and fouls off pitches he can't handle until he can make good contract or draw a walk. The Nats do a great job of laying off close balls, forcing pitchers to throw it in the K-zone. Getting ahead in the count gives a hitter a huge edge.

The Philiies have one of the highest rates of pitches per PA, evidence that Stairs is having an impact. I think it's just a matter of time, kids who've swung their way up the organizational ladder aren't going to become polished ML hitters overnight. But it's a matter of percentages, reduce the percentage of bad pitches you swing at, increase the percentage of PAs where you "barrel" at least one pitch, and you'll be a better hitter. You're still going to get fooled or be beat by strikes you can't handle, but you won't be beating yourself.

BtownFan 2017-07-31 12:38:16 UTC #1456

allentown:

Has anyone here has run across anything that would confirm or deny the idea that the age structure of ball players at AAA has declined over time, especially since, say, 2012??

The Phillies AAA team has tended to be loaded with older AAAA players and not lot of prospects. The past two years the age of Allentown players has been much lower and a lot of serious prospects have been on the squad both seasons. The Braves top prospect, Acuna, just made it to AAA at age 19. In each of the last 4 years, the Phillies have brought in older vets, roughly after the All-Star break in both Allentown and Reading as injuries and promotions take a toll on the rosters, beyond what promotions from CLW can fix. I think the opening day rosters are the truest indicator of age at level. Our teams have had very low average ages compared to the norm in each of the past two seasons.

AF is right about the difference in age progression for LA, H.S., and college signees. As the percentage of LA signings and H.S. draftees in an organization rises, the average age of minor leaguers in that system is going to go down. An organization drafting largely college kids is going to be older. The Phillies have danced back and forth between H.S. centric and college centric drafts. We now have the college-heavy 2014 and 2017 drafts on the farm, with the exception of Nola.

This is all interesting, but I was hoping to find AAA- and AA-wde trends, not just those for the Phils. The HS and college signee diff in trajectories is obvious, but does not tell me what is going on across all minor league divisions.

phillychuck 2017-07-31 13:22:13 UTC #1457

Interesting how we've acquired significant talent in the last few decades in Philly:

Jayson Werth--rescued from the scrap heap after injuries derailed him -- 32.1 MLB WAR (f-WAR) since acquired and counting
Shane Victorino--rule 5 pick, we lucked out when the Dodgers mis-evaluated him and didn't want him back -- 31.2 MLB WAR
Bobby Abreu -- traded for an over-valued Kevin Stocker -- 58.6 MLB WAR

Current version is rule 5 pick Odubel Herrera who projects to somewhere between 30 and 40 MLB WAR by the time he's in his mid-30s. It's important that management learns to deal with him effectively so we don't give away a lot of that value.

Interesting that we've never done the "low-profile" acquisition with a significant pitching talent, at least since 2000. Maybe that tells you how a team should focus its rule 5 picks.

Squire 2017-07-31 13:35:31 UTC #1458

Just a random unconnected comment from me that I still believe in Vincent Velasquez as a starter and don't want to see him converted to a reliever.

Austinfan 2017-07-31 13:44:25 UTC #1459

The flip side is that these players were available (as well as Inciarte on Atlanta, who we took in 2012 and then lost).

It shows that viable players aren't always 1st rd picks or top prospects, that it's important to identify those second tier prospects with the potential to step up their game, and not just focus on the consensus picks.

On the other hand, the few successes in the Rule 5 draft stand out but obscure that maybe half the players picked get returned to their original teams, and most of the rest never make it.

Austinfan 2017-07-31 13:45:34 UTC #1460

I think they'll give Velasquez and Pivetta every chance to succeed as starters before they consider moving them to the pen (which would probably only occur if they both struggle and a bunch of other pitching prospects come up and outplay them).

nycphils 2017-07-31 13:57:43 UTC #1461

I think Velasquez as a starter an open question, which means you are right for now at least. I was at the game yesterday right behind the plate about 10 rows up - he wasn't throwing as hard as usual. He sat at 91 mph and only hit 94 or 95 a handful of times in the game. His curve had a nice sharp break on occasion, but it was still very inconsistent (was effective to RH batters when it was sharp) and he didn't use his change up much.

I think the jury is still out on his optimal ultimate landing spot.

andyb 2017-07-31 14:11:13 UTC #1462

And the narrative also that Stairs can somehow fix anybody and is a miracle teacher. I have nothing against Stairs but there really is not enough evidence to suggest whether he is good or bad at his job. Like any young player Williams will need to learn to swing at strikes and work counts in his favor. He may never draw a huge number of walks but there are also many paths to being a good hitter. Hopefully Stairs is good enough to adapt what he teaches to different hitters and different skillsets.

andyb 2017-07-31 14:14:53 UTC #1463

Throwing less hard might give him a little more command. Or of course he was pitching against a mediocre team that was not having a good day.

I let VV start the rest of the year and then re-evaluate over the winter.