General Discussion

bigegypt0417 2017-07-29 21:25:52 UTC #1424

AF has some bizarro thoughts on things.

Austinfan 2017-07-29 21:35:57 UTC #1425

You miss the point, if there isn't an uber talent, odds are the guy you're left with will be as good as the guy you take.
It's a crapshoot.
And you may not end up with extra money, it's harder to negotiate with less money to play with relative to a couple years ago.

How's Gowdy looking these days?
Just sayin' the draft isn't exactly a sure thing in most cases, so worrying where you finish is a bit overrated.

For the Flyers to move from #13 to #2 was a big thing.
For the Sixers to move up to #3 b/c of the swap was a big thing, allowed them to trade up to #1.
Whether the Phillies pick 1, 2, or 3, if there is no "Harper" this year, will probably have a minimal impact.
There's a good chance they'd end up with the same player at lower cost (if there is no clear candidate for #1, the guy they like has a good chance of dropping).

allentown 2017-07-29 21:54:18 UTC #1426

No, we understand what you're saying. We disagree with it. As the Phillies showed with signing Moniak, just because you draft the guy you like from the 1.1 position, doesn't mean you have to give him $ near the value of the 1.1 slot. Yes, we understand that the savings aren't as great as they could be under the old slots, but there can still be savings.

Yes Gowdy's injury has been extremely disappointing. Any pitcher is a health risk. The last chapter of the Gowdy story hasn't been written yet. I remember how much time Hamels missed in the minors. Just looked it up: didn't pitch at all his draft year -- not that unusual back then, pitched 100 innings year 2, 16 IP year 3, 35 IP year 4, took off in year 5 with 160 IP and made it all the way to Philly, never looking back or pitching less than 183 IP per season after that, although this season likely breaks the string.

We'll see what the final chapter is on Moniak, Gowdy, and Stobbe. Whatever the ending, each of them was a good bet and I can't fault the strategy on that draft. All three of these guys have a lot of talent. Not every talented draftee is going to make it.

julio 2017-07-30 01:20:00 UTC #1427

Zolecki on the impact of yesterday's trades:

LoneStarPhan 2017-07-30 01:34:58 UTC #1428

I absolutely would like to have the #1 pick; if not, then as high as possible. But I always want to see the Phillies win and I really do hope they play much better baseball in August and September. It will be what it will be in the draft next June.

bkox 2017-07-30 01:40:06 UTC #1429

Beato comes out of the game injured.. so we will probably see someone different.

allentown 2017-07-30 01:42:24 UTC #1430

What's the deal with Kim? He only 29, quite good last year, so-so this April, bad after that.

LoneStarPhan 2017-07-30 01:49:11 UTC #1431

I was surprised how good his season was last year with an OPS over .800, but looks pretty weak this season. Regardless, he will be a free agent after this season and I don't see him having a future with the team. Taking Kim back in the deal was like giving the O's more money in the deal, plus he probably gets some pinch hitting at bats over the remainder of the season.

andyb 2017-07-30 01:52:25 UTC #1432

I think last season was small sample size luck for Kim. Scouts doubted he was good enough and he was awful in spring training. Then he got hot but was probably lucky. This year is more like what the scouts projected.

BtownFan 2017-07-30 12:25:39 UTC #1433

A couple of recent thoughts written here and spoken by Mike Schmidt the other day had me wondering about the change over time in the age structure of minor league teams. Here people were discussing the impact of the tightness of the 40-man rosters on the declining use of the Rule V draft. Schmidtty mentioned during a game about how AA used to be the level at which a young ballplayer really proved himself, which was my view of things as a kid watching him, Bowa, and Doyle play at Reading. My takeway from Schmidt's point was that all of the enthusiasm of competition and comradery through the joint rise through an organization existed at AA while at AAA that was severely diminished by the existence of tired, desperate AAAA players and other veterans who are trying to climb back up into the show one last time (or the first time). Anyway, he was making the point that this had transformed somewhat, and that AAA now was a legitimate training ground focused on younger players. So I did a search and found this piece Minor League levels and their respective average ages, which is not exactly the freshest stuff. I also looked at the Ironpigs roster and spied a handful of guys over 29 (plus Stassi) who seem to be "wasting" slots there.

Has anyone here has run across anything that would confirm or deny the idea that the age structure of ball players at AAA has declined over time, especially since, say, 2012??

Austinfan 2017-07-30 13:08:58 UTC #1434

The one mistake in the article is the elite prospect age path - it's a LA age path. HS players tend to start in rookie at 18, jump to A ball at 19, then progress level by level.

College juniors come in to the minors usually at 21, and often start in high rookie to get acclimated their college year (and for many college pitchers, to basically get a feel for MiLB ball, b/c they may have been overused). 22 in A ball (even if they start in A after college, they'll go to A+ the next year), 23 in AA, 24 in AAA/ML.

AAA teams fill out their bullpens and maybe the back of the rotation with AAAA types, and some of their bench spots, plus any spot where there isn't a top prospect. Guys like C Ramos (33), Venditte (32), Beato (31) are buffer arms that can be called up if needed. Murray (27) and Mariot (28) are former prospects who couldn't stick in the majors. Leiter is a year or two away from joining them. Moore (28), Florimon (30), H Gomez (28), M Williams (28), are "hamburger helper", guys who man the bench. H Martinez (27) is moving from prospect to HH.

You see a lot of these guys in AAA b/c they allow you to not rush guys who aren't ready, but also provide a "reserve army of the undertalented" who can fill in at the ML level as "below replacement" replacement players for short periods. AAAA players who are replacement level or a little above don't last in AAA ball, as injuries and player movement open up opportunities.

At Reading, there are few of these guys, mostly emergency fill-ins. What you'll have are older, marginal prospect guys whose upside may eventually be AAAA players - Flores (25), Stankiewicz (24), Tomscha (26), Rickles (27).

allentown 2017-07-30 14:35:39 UTC #1435

The Phillies AAA team has tended to be loaded with older AAAA players and not lot of prospects. The past two years the age of Allentown players has been much lower and a lot of serious prospects have been on the squad both seasons. The Braves top prospect, Acuna, just made it to AAA at age 19. In each of the last 4 years, the Phillies have brought in older vets, roughly after the All-Star break in both Allentown and Reading as injuries and promotions take a toll on the rosters, beyond what promotions from CLW can fix. I think the opening day rosters are the truest indicator of age at level. Our teams have had very low average ages compared to the norm in each of the past two seasons.

AF is right about the difference in age progression for LA, H.S., and college signees. As the percentage of LA signings and H.S. draftees in an organization rises, the average age of minor leaguers in that system is going to go down. An organization drafting largely college kids is going to be older. The Phillies have danced back and forth between H.S. centric and college centric drafts. We now have the college-heavy 2014 and 2017 drafts on the farm, with the exception of Nola.

California_Dreamin 2017-07-30 17:26:50 UTC #1436

White Sox trade Melky Cabrera to KC today. I will be stunned if they don't finish with the worst record in baseball, absolutely stunned. Phils actually could fall to 4th if they keep playing well. The Reds have packed it in and the Giants look terrible right now.

Philsmania 2017-07-30 17:42:57 UTC #1437

The 1-1 is nice but a team of young Phillies playing well over the last two months of the season and building confidence as MLers would not be a bad thing.

Yes, the White Sox and, to a lesser extent, Reds have gone into tank mode. The Phillies seem to be going in the other direction.

Having said all that, don't forget how 2015's 99 loss team enjoyed a 16-5 spurt around this time.

bkox 2017-07-30 18:16:32 UTC #1438

According to Baseball Reference, which lists the average age for every league, the average age of the International League this season is 26.6. Its been as high as 27.5 in recent years. It hasnt been below 26 since 1990 and it last fell below 25 in 1983. It was around 25.2 for most of the 70s

I didnt go through the entire last 40 years of the Eastern Division.. But when Schmidt played in Reading in 1971, the average age was 23.2. This years its 24.3. In 1980 it was 22.5

flyers19rw 2017-07-30 18:43:03 UTC #1439

It probably won't happen but with the O's looking like they're going to be doing a rebuild and Showalter having only one year left on his contract, I wonder if he would ask to be released from it this winter? If that were to occur, would the Phillies be interested in hiring him and would he want to work for the Phils?

zambonir 2017-07-30 19:15:05 UTC #1440

I posted a story about this in the non-Phils thread. It sounds like he and Duquette are a package deal, but if the GM is going into next season w/o an extension that pretty much seals the manager's fate too, so he could definitely become available.

But as I also posted in another thread, suddenly it doesn't look like Pete is going anywhere either (assuming August and September go the way July has). Of course if you really want Showalter that's okay. And if Klentak really wants Showalter and he gets let go, maybe he'd make a move. But I don't think they'd actively be looking to hire (or give up something for) an employed manager. Whether it means something that MacPhail hired Showallter in Baltimore, I guess time will tell. Just as likely it is Wathan or a young outside candidate.

Philsmania 2017-07-30 19:16:27 UTC #1441

I wouldn't necessarily count on it. I read somewhere that MacPhail and Showalter didn't have the best of relationships. However, it's also possible that Showalter is an irascible sort who frequently clashes with his bosses. I could go either way in predictng whether or not he ensure up here.

zambonir 2017-07-30 19:40:00 UTC #1442

When MacPhail retired Showalter almost became President and GM of the Orioles. He would bring a very different power dynamic, would probably want to be involved in front office decisions, might not even be willing to report directly to a young GM.

I think it's true that Showalter is irascible (he and Duquette have had their ups and downs too). He's also decidedly old-school. As is Pete. That's not necessarily a bad approach, to have a new-school GM and an old-school manager bringing both things to the table, but I still gotta think the Phillies are more likely to look for their own Maddon or AJ Hinch. Or Wathan is that guy.

flyers19rw 2017-07-30 21:07:03 UTC #1443

It's games like today's that make me wonder if Crawford will ever replace Galvis based on production alone. Freddy's plays in the field are GG measure. With the improvement that he has shown at the plate, he's close to AS level.