General Discussion

David_Criss 2017-07-28 17:34:21 UTC #1384

flyers19rw 2017-07-28 17:55:30 UTC #1385

FWIW, last night I ran into a friend of mine who used to work for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. He's a big Pirate fan but out of the blue he asked me what was up with the Phillies moving to acquire Stanton? It was an interesting comment. We've kicked around the subject on this site but the concept must be out there if it is known in Western PA.

allentown 2017-07-28 19:54:39 UTC #1386

Maybe I'm just missing a lot of the chatter, but it seems that there are fewer rumors going around this trade deadline season. I think that causes even tenuous rumors to circulate to every baseball city, not just those that the rumors pertain to.

Philsmania 2017-07-28 21:25:47 UTC #1387

A big part of it is this writer from NJ.com who is convinced that the Phillies are getting Stanton.

zambonir 2017-07-28 21:41:57 UTC #1388

The Stanton rumor started with a national columnist who's on national television, of course everybody knows about it. What's hilarious is Rosenthal (and nearly everyone since) flat-out said it won't happen, just that it would make sense. Whatever fire there was to that smoke was about Yelich.

And that NJ.com story is just a link to Jon Heyman.

Now that doesn't mean it might not happen in the future, but right now the Phillies are not going to acquire 100% of Stanton's contract and the Marlins aren't prepared to do anything other than that (probably mostly because the old owners aren't in a position to make that deal anyway).

flyers19rw 2017-07-28 21:48:32 UTC #1389

When the Phillies were in Miami, there was smoke going on about a Stanton/Yelich combo coming to Philly. Also a Gordon/Yelich proposal floated around. The main aspect of these deals was Miami needing to shed salary and the Phillies being able to take it on. That part of these proposed trades made sense. I don't recall who what the Phillies were send to Miami.

Austinfan 2017-07-28 22:51:13 UTC #1390

The Phillies have an OF of Williams - Herrera - Altherr, with Cozens, Ortiz, Moniak and Haseley on the way.
But some things to consider
1) He has a sizeable career Home/Road split - .939 OPS v .869
2) He struggles to stay healthy - since his rookie year has averaged 121 games a year.over a six year period.
At his peak right now, and a 6 WAR player if he could play 160 games a year.
And he's making adjustments:

But he's had a string of injuries, and at some point it's a trend, not a coincidence:

2012: missed less than a month due to arthroscopic knee surgery on his right knee.
2013: missed a little over a month with a strained right hamstring.
2014: missed last few weeks of season after getting hit in the face with a pitch. No DL stint due to expanded rosters.
2015: missed the rest of the season beginning in late June after a fractured bone in his hand due to a hard swing.
2016: missed the rest of the season beginning in mid-August due to a left groin strain.

If his contract ran through say age 32, you'd shrug your shoulders, but it runs through age 37 at $30M with a $10M buyout.
Since Phillies won't be contending fora couple more years, they'd find him valuable from age 30 in 2020 to when?
So what would you trade for him to get an offensive upgrade/defensive downgrade (compared to say Altherr) and exposure to a huge financial risk when this team will need to resign it's core players.

zambonir 2017-07-28 23:02:28 UTC #1391

You don't trade for him without a sweetener of another player. And you don't give anything up for him unless the Marlins are sending about $100 million. But if both of those things happen you are probably including one or even two of the names you mention in the deal.

flyers19rw 2017-07-28 23:17:04 UTC #1392

The "sweetener" in the proposal was Yelich, who the Phillies covet.
As many have mentioned here, the greatest asset that the Phillies have is money. Why not pick up Stanton if you get Yelich along with him? Williams/Herrera/Altherr might be a good OF; Yelich/Herrera/Stanton would be a great OF now. Some might say that the Phils should hold on to their money and go for Harper, Machado or Trout but getting any of those players on the open market might be difficult. As for Stanton's injury history, a good part of that revolved around being beaned. Not his fault. His leg problems are currently under control.
Guys like Stanton are game changers that usually don't become available. If he's available and the Phillies pass on him, it will be a shame. He's one of the best five position players in the game. He'd put butts in seats which TPTB and Comcast would love. Get him.

zambonir 2017-07-29 00:48:11 UTC #1393

Yes, Yelich plus financial relief you gotta consider it. Stanton alone w/ no financial relief, I don't give up much of anything.

I don't think he's anywhere near one of the five best position players in the game. One of the 10 best hitters, sure.

bkox 2017-07-29 02:05:50 UTC #1394

Another reason not to get Stanton:

Squire 2017-07-29 15:57:24 UTC #1395

Feeling like we aren't going to finish with the worst record in baseball. We've got an actual outfield now.

andyb 2017-07-29 16:01:43 UTC #1396

Not sure even Stanton would be enough to push the Phillies $20 million over the luxury tax line in 6 or 7 years. We have to remember that the young core that is just starting to play will not get expensive for 5-7 more years. We really have room for a couple of Stanton-like contracts as the penalties won't kick in till the $250 million level a few years from now.

Small bonus - assuming the Dodgers are going to violate this year, our 2nd round pick should move up 1 spot! Competitive balance round is 6 picks and I don't think the comp picks change the order so the Dodgers likely pick of 29th or 30th will go back 10 spots and the top pick in the 2nd round was 37th last year.

EDmuch 2017-07-29 16:40:57 UTC #1397

I just would not want to give up much of the home grown talent we have been developing to get Stanton when our home grown outfield is looking pretty good. by the way, if the trade was made, look for an outfield of Staton. Altherr and Yelich, not Herrera.

nycphils 2017-07-29 16:49:38 UTC #1398

Is this a complaint?

Austinfan 2017-07-29 16:50:19 UTC #1399

The problem with Stanton is durability, if healthy he's a 6 WAR player, but he's never healthy. Averages about 120 games a year.

The second question, is how good will he be in 2020 and beyond, if he's only a 4 WAR player, is he even an upgrade over Williams and Altherr, who should be superior defensively. How well will he age?

As far as Yelich, can we say "grossly overrated?" He hit the majors at 21, but didn't have a good season until 24, and he's fallen back a bit this year. He's a corner OF who's out of place in CF. So I'm not sure he's much of an upgrade over Altherr, if at all. He's a good player, but not a great player.

allentown 2017-07-29 16:56:36 UTC #1400

I agree. Williams, Altherr, Herrera are a pretty good OF, although it will take more time to truly assess Williams, who took a ton of lumps in AAA. Altherr is up to .930 OPS now and plays good D on top of that. We have Cozens and, we can only hope, Quinn in the wings. After that there is Pullin, Tocci, Moniak, Haseley, and Ortiz.I don't want to trade for 2 veteran OFs. We can probably accommodate one superior vet OF, but 2 just destroys the farm products we have been developing. Last year, OF was our Achilles heel. Not so much now. I'm feeling quite good about our young OF.

Florida_Sunshine 2017-07-29 17:05:52 UTC #1401

I too feel good about our outfield, next year and looking out into the future. I think Stanton diverts money from greater needs, like SP, 3B, maybe C.

andyb 2017-07-29 17:39:43 UTC #1402

With the Orioles imploding one wonders if 4 prospects and a $400 million long term deal could get Machado this winter. Give them Franco, Cozens, Kilome, and Moniak and add Machado now.

C - Alfaro/Knapp
1B - Hoskins
2B - Kingery/Hernandez
SS - Crawford/Galvis
3B - Machado
OF - Williams/Herrera/Altherr/Quinn

Not the worst lineup and you still have 2B and SS players that could be flipped for rotation depth or a closer. No $400 million deal probably works out on a $/WAR basis, but we can certainly afford one and Machado is a pretty good bet to be good for another 5 years.

zambonir 2017-07-29 17:48:02 UTC #1403

For sure but it's also been a lot about the pitching, though subtracting Hellickson may not actually weaken the team,and losing Neshek can only hurt so much. In the end I'd rather see Eickhoff and Velasquez (and the hitters) finish the season well than have the pick. But it'd be nice.

I suspect the reports that the Phillies aren't interested in Stanton are 100% true. They could always use him to get Yelich and then trade him for something else, while paying down his salary further.

I'm on the fence about it in theory - we all prefer our own players (some more than others) but a Stanton/Yelich/Altherr or Williams OF is probably still better than a Williams/Herrera/Alther OF. I agree that moving heaven and earth to get Yelich when you've already got Herrera (and plenty of other players like Yelich) seems questionable though.

In the end, it's probably a referendum on Herrera. His production and defense speaks for itself and I don't think the team views him as a problem child but if you could upgrade the team while also replacing his production with a more manageable player....

No matter what, the Phillies are just going to come up in association with rumors about him because they have the payroll space,