2017 Season Phillies News/Notes/General Discussion

[bigegypt0417]

Actually, if they sign Galvis to a reasonable long-term deal, that would make him more valuable as trade bait if he played well next year.
It realy comes down to the money, but his ability to back up all three spots makes him affordable for a couple years as a super sub as well as a starter.
I mean if you're gonna pay Saunders, why not pay someone who can actually help your team.

Are we still talking about giving a long term deal to a below average shortstop so we can increase his value?

Are all those words in that paragraph?

Your fixation with Galvis is....odd.

[zambonir]

I don't think that's totally crazy, it just doesn't fully reflect the realities of the marketplace. If Galvis has a chance to play great next year and hit free agency, he might be looking at $10 or 12 million AAV. But he'd have to take 8 or 9 from the Phillies on an extension to keep him tradeable, especially since his performance is no sure thing. There are only three shortstops in all of baseball making more than $8.25 million this year.

Upside, he's still younger than a lot of SSs who will be available over the next two years. But that's just another reason for him to want to protect his FA status.

[allentown]

If there are only 3 SS in all of baseball making more than $8.25 million, why do you think Galvis would balk at $8-9 million. I can't see him getting a multi-year $10-12 million AAV. He's just not that good. This is like the Phillies being sure a team would offer Hellickson enough to make him pass on $17 mill, knowing they would lose a draft pick in doing so. Hellickson just isn't that good either. One can quote $/WAR forever, but that is limited to FA market and really more reflective of the better guys. It is a loser's game to give high $/WAR to a guy who is average or a bit below. Since plus, near-star, and star players are far rarer than an average player, $/WAR should be exponential, not linear. Going for average or slightly below average guys, other than to fill a specific gap on a good team, is like the old Sixers -- never competitive, always maxed out on salary, always zeroed out on realistic hope -- paying cap for inevitably bad results. That's why I see the Phillies approach to FAs like Burnett, Hellickson, et al as extremely inefficient -- you are paying top rate for average or below performance.

[Austinfan]

When you have players like Herrera at $6M a year and Galvis, if he'd sign, on a reasonably priced deal, even if you discount low WAR, they're still bargains b/c their defense will give you 1-2 WAR even in an off year, and if they hit, 2-3 or more WAR. So little downside and lots of upside.
This is a good way to build depth when you have a lot of salary cap room - and they retain value as low cost players with team control.
Now if Galvis wants $12-15M a year, nice knowing ya. But that would also kill his trade value, since you'd be buying one reasonably cost season.
But if he wants security, isn't sure he'd keep a job elsewhere, likes it here, is willing to compete with Crawford and if he loses out, would be a "super sub" - then a 3-4 year deal at say $6-8M makes a lot of sense.

Hernandez is a different story, healthy he's a 3-4 WAR player, your leadoff hitter and you either commit to him or trade him.

[zambonir]

If there are only 3 SS in all of baseball making more than $8.25 million, why do you think Galvis would balk at $8-9 million.

Because few of those cheaper contracts came via unrestricted free agency, it's two years from now, and Freddy is young for a UFA.

Asdrubal Cabrera signed a two-year $9.25 million AAV deal (with either a third year or a buyout) in 2016. But he was already 30. Andrelton Simmons is one of those guys making "just" $8 million but that escalates to 11-13-15 after this year (he signed a seven-year deal several years ago).

I'm not saying Freddy wouldn't give the Phillies some discount but it would probably take three years plus an option. Because otherwise it's obvious they are just keeping him as a bridge, and would maybe trade him, so why should he commit early? I think $10 million AAV will just be a boring old contract for a competent FA SS, the same way #4 starters on the open market make that much.

[allentown]

Because otherwise it's obvious they are just keeping him as a bridge

With Crawford and Kingery, I think it almost obvious that he is a bridge turned utility IF or trade bait, regardless of the contract he receives. That's also why the Phillies can't give him many years/$.

[andyb]

There is just little logic for the Phillies to pursue a long term deal unless they have given up on Crawford. You don't bet on a player with a lower ceiling to "hedge your bet". You can usually sign a modest rental player (like Asdrubal Cabrera) for $10 million or less anyway if Crawford does not work out.

Herrera is different. He was further away from free agency so you are buying younger years. You also have 3 OF positions so a little more future flexibility. Though again the $30 million they gave Herrera is not immediately an $8-$10 million deal, so it is easy to trade him if they want to. Any 3+ year deal for Galvis would be for a much higher AAV and potentially more difficult to move. There is just no reason to do this on the Phillies end. It does not mean they should not give Galvis $10 million in his final arbitration year to keep him. They just need to be prepared to trade him if Crawford wins the job.

[Austinfan]

The problem with relying on veteran scrubs on the bench is you may get Blanco of a couple years ago, or Blanco this year, Bourjas when he was respectable, or Bourjas when he wasn't.
You can get lucky with Nava or be stuck with Saunders.
Point is there is value to relatively low cost supersubs that can fill in when there are serious injuries, and not just for a game or two, Kendrick was that guy until he became a walking IR item.
Gonzalez on Houston is filling that role.

And if you're starting two rookies in the middle of the IF who don't have to be paid for three years, well, there's the money needed.
Not saying Galvis would accept that role, but trying to fill it in FA will be expensive - the cheap guys are gambles and the better veterans want to start.
You only need a couple of these guys, the rest of the bench can be low cost patches or kids.
But most good teams tend to have two or three solid bench players or more who rack up 2-300 PA and can rest regulars or fill in for an extended IR residence.

Now maybe Valentin is that guy, or Mora, but you don't want to depend on them until they show they can handle the role at the ML level, you start them as your 5th guy on the bench and see if they take advantage of opportunities. It's a role that's generally filled by guys who aren't talented to be above average starters (since they'd end up starting or being traded) but better than replacement.

[flyers19rw]

Since AF mentioned Valentin, has there been any discussion of how his surgery and re-hab has gone? The operation was on his non-throwing shoulder, I think back in April. The Phillies did say that he would be gone for the season but by now there should be some re-hab going on in Florida unless they just told him to go home to P.R. and do it on his own, which would be unlikely.

[mdougherty12]

I count at least 4 SS making > $8.25 million:

Troy Tulowitzki
Jose Reyes
Elvis Andrus
J.J. Hardy

Plus one could argue for Jhonny Peralta.

[zambonir]

Reyes isn't listed as a SS on Sportrac, maybe because he's a utility guy now or maybe because he isn't being paid by his current team.

But Cabrera and Simmons are there, for AAV not this year's salary. And Cozart will be. Brandon Crawford, at 31, also jumps to $15 million next year. As long as revenues are growing (for now) I think Freddy, on the open market, gets more than we'd think. I also think we have a tendency to act like revenues haven't grown as much as they have. We still think Jeremy Hellickson should be paid like Joe Blanton was in 2008 (even if he shouldn't be making nearly as much as he is currently).

[mdougherty12]

Jean Segura gets bumped up to $9.6 million next year on his backloaded deal, too.

[andyb]

The crop of shortstops is relatively young now which explains the low number of high salaries. Plus shortstops often move to other positions. Remember Hanley Ramirez was a shortstop as recently as 2014. Galvis himself should be in the $8 million range next year in arbitration if a standard raise happens.

[zambonir]

Well, that's my feeling. He gets to 8, he's gonna get to 11 or even 12 AAV as an unrestricted free agent at his age. I just don't think an 8-10-12 offer from the Phillies gets it done, you'd have to either pay more or add a fourth year.

But I don't really believe they intend to keep Galvis for a second, not as a SS and not as insurance and not as a super sub. Maybe it's the off-season, maybe it's July, but he's likely gone. If they deal Hernandez first, maybe he stays longer but if the team isn't playing .500 ball next mid-season he gets moved.

[Austinfan]

I don't think Klentak knows what he's going to do, he's probably explored multiple scenarios, but all it takes is one player breaking an ankle in the next couple days to change everything - because he has no control over what 29 other GMs are going to do.

The advantage Klentak has:
1) no expiring contracts other than marginal veterans, so no one who has to be moved now or this winter
2) lot's of salary cap room
3) all his players are relatively young, with a next generation of prospects due in 2020-21 or so, so he could trade Kingery and keep Hernandez and be fine if the right offer came along (say Kingery and Franco for a bluechp 3B and a #2 pitcher prospect).

The disadvantage Klentak has is a squeeze on 40 man roster spots, he'd rather not lose a Pullin or Perkins or a young 2nd tier pitching prospect without getting something in return. But the kind of players he's likely to lose aren't going to make or break the next three seasons. So it's a consideration, but not a constraint.

This puts him in the enviable position of lots of tradeable assets and no urgency to trade them - so he can wait for the "right" deal instead of settling, but it's harder on the fans.

[nycphils]

Another reason to avoid indicting Klentak for the vet moves even though they didn't all pan out:

From Philly.com: "The Phillies spent almost $70 million last winter to cushion the roster with veterans — Howie Kendrick, Michael Saunders, Jeremy Hellickson, Clay Buchholz, Joaquin Benoit, Pat Neshek and Jeanmar Gomez — and the returns were mixed. Some of the impetus for those moves came from ownership, which did not want to play with one of the league’s lowest payrolls."

[Austinfan]

Klentak's hands were also tied b/c the Philies were so bad, it was an attractive destination only for one year guys trying to showcase their skills for a July trade to a contender.
The list of players who signed with new teams:

Biggest deals:

Chapman (29) P - NYY 5yr/$86M 3.14 ERA 12 S, 3 BS
Melancon (32) P - SF 4yr/$62M 4.35 ERA 11 saves, 4 BS
Encarnacion (34) DH - Cleveland 3yr/$60M .867 OPS
Desmond (31) IF - Texas 5y/$70M .717 OPS
Fowler (31) OF - St Louis 5yr$/82M .785 OPS
Reddick (30) RF - Houston 4y/$42M .839 OPS

Best of the Rest:

Castro (30) C - Minnesota 3yr/$24M .681 OPS
Ramos (29) C - TB 2yr/$12M .616 OPS
Weiters (31) C - Washington 2yr/$21M .678 OPS
Holliday (37) DH - NYY 1yr/$13M .783 OPS
Morales (34) DH - Toronto 3yr/$33M .781 OPS
Moss (33) DH - KC 2yr/$13M .696 OPS
Thames (30) 1B - Milwaukee 3yr/$16M .911 OPS
Valbuena (31) 1B - California 2yr/$15M .667 OPS
Rodriquez (32) 1B - Atlanta 2yr/$12M (20 AB)
Napoli (35) 1B - Texas 1yr/$8M .753 OPS
Pearce (34) LF - Toronto 2yr/$12M .774 OPS (173 AB)
Joyce (32) OF - Oakland 2yr/$11M .743 OPS
Gomez (31) CF - Texas 1yr/11.5M .787 OPS

Nova (30) P - Pirates 3yr/$26M 20s 3.62 ERA
Cashner (30) P - Texas 1yr/$10M 16s 3.64 ERA
Morton (33) P - Houston 2yr/$14M 14s 3.83 ERA
Volquez (34) P - Miami 2yr/$22M 17s 4.19 ERA
Dickey (42) P - Atlanta 1yr/$8.M - 20s 4.31 ERA
Hammel (34) P - KC 2yr/$16M 20s, 4.81 ERA
Colon (40) P - Atlanta 1yr/$12.5M - 15s, 8.00 ERA

Rzepczynski (31) P - Seattle 2yr/$11M 3.33 ERA 10 holds
Cecil (30) P - St Louis 4yr/$30M - 3.57 ERA 12 holds, 1 S, 6 BS.
Hudson (30) P - Pittsburgh 2yr/$11M 4.08 ERA 16 holds, 1 BS
Dunn (32) P - Colorado 3yr/$19M - 4.54 ERA, 13 holds, 1 BS
Casilla (37) P - Oakland 2yr/$11M - 4.68 ERA 16 saves, 2 hold, 6 BS
Tazawa (31) P - Miami 1yr/$12M 5.16 ERA 4 holds, 2 BS
Wood (30) P - KC 2yr/$12M 6.91 ERA 1 hold, 1 BS
Ziegler (37) P - Miami 2yr/$16M 6.52 ERA 7 hold, 2 BS

[andyb]

And Neshek's replacement is:

Jesen Therrien rappelé par les Phillies

Je suis tout excite.

[julio]

Je suis tout excité.

Fixed your post.

[nycphils]

Moi aussi.

I think that Benoit should be dealt for cash or a PBTNL, and Milner and Thompson sent back down so we can see Ramos, Rios and Pinto for,the rest of the year.

They also need to make Morgan a LOOGY from now on - he's now throwing 96 mph and in spite of atrocious numbers overall he has a .730 Opponents OPS vs. LH this season. Need to figure out if he can fill that role. MIlner is over .900 Opp. OPS