2017 Season Phillies News/Notes/General Discussion

[Philsmania]

Other than him though, Herrera has taken a significant step back.

I agree with you. Not sure why everyone is giving Staris credit. Our two young stars have gotten substantially worse and the rest of the team is pretty stagnant. It is a sad time for watching the MLB team.

Herrera performed well two seasons in a row in 2015 and 2016. I doubt that the light has suddenly gone off. It is possible that he's coming back to earth a bit and was never as good as he was in 2015 and 2016--after all, we're talking about a Rule 5 pick, another team's reject--but I don't think that he has morphed into Michael Martinez either. I feel confident that he will come around, if not sometime in 2017 and he's having something of a 2003 Burrell season, he'll do so on 2018. With Franco, on the other hand, we are witnessing an alarming acceleration of a decline we saw last year and his career may be at a crossroads at this point where he needs to turn it around now or he's headed toward oblivion. Like Domonic Brown, he's not making adjustments but his star is dimming much faster than Brown's ever did.

I feel the same way about Stairs. Stairs got a lot of good press in spring training and perhaps it was not justified. Perhaps the press went out of its way to talk favorably about him because of his likable, jovial nature and the phans ate it up because of 2008 NLCS Game 4 hero aura. But no, he is definitely not looking too hot right now and you wonder if the Phillies will end up in a position of having to fire a semi-iconic Phillie.

[andyb]

I think Stairs generally knows what he is doing and advocates a patient approach that is generally good for most players. What he lacks is experience though. If his instruction causes issues with guys like Herrera and Franco then a more experienced coach might have a different approach with them. One cookie-cutter approach, even if it is generally correct, does not always help all players.

This is just speculation of course, but this is Stairs' first opportunity at the job and teaching players with completely different skill sets is not the easiest thing. The problem with Herrera and Franco may not be that they are not making adjustments. It might be that the adjustments they are trying to make are messing with the traits that made them good hitters in the first place.

[Austinfan]

I have never advocated spending less money, I've just been dubious about the efficacy of throwing money at marginal prospects.
In LA, only the top guys (1-3 or so) are worth spending real money, after that the value comes from spreading it around past the overpriced spread.
Whereas in the amateur draft, at least in the first hundred players, there's a general sense of relative value because it's easier to rank a combination of the best HS players (18) and college juniors (21-22).
In LA, the bonuses are decided at age 14-15 (when the commitments are made), the players are ranked at 16, and the ordering is barely better than random guesses.
So if you invest in good scouts (and the resources they need to do their job) you should be able to identify numerous "bargains" and make better use of the same money.

People get excited that such and such team signed 4-5 guys out of the top 20, well, that's not the same as signing 4-5 guys in the top 50 of the amateur draft. #5 in LA might have the same probability of success as #150 in the amateur draft.
(imagine if you reranked LA players at age 18, probably half or more of the top 20 would fall out - just think how much our minor league rankings change in 2 years, and those are much older players)
Even Cuba got overrated, a few top guys were worth the huge spend, but look at the top 100 prospects, Cubans getting paid $10-20M were at the bottom of the list.

There's also a tendency to think this is a supermarket, buy a couple from column A, a couple from column B.
It's actually a corrupt auction, where some teams are working with mafioso types to purchase Cubans, others are cutting deals with "agents" to lock up 14 year olds, everyone is lying and there is no regulation of the process.

[andyb]

I have never advocated spending less money,

Yes you have. You keep arguing that they should not have traded $2.8 million in allocations.

We all know Latin American prospects are riskier. Duh. You are advocating for spending less money on them though.

[EastFallowfield]

Another awful game today that nobody's mentioning.

[teabag259]

Hapless is the word that comes to mind.

[LoneStarPhan]

Yes it is. In top of fifth, Phillies get 3 hits and 3 strikeouts. No runs. They left Punto bat and so far in the bottom of the inning, he had faced 4 batters but has gotten no outs.

I guess they want him to work through his problems, but it certainly shows a team that is only getting worse by the day.

[zambonir]

I hope and agree that Herrera is just having a bad patch or a bad year. But it's also true that he may have to rebuild his swing.

And I'm not down on Stairs in particular, it's just that he is the new guy and a beloved player so he gets a pass, but the part of the team he is responsible for has cratered worse than the pitching, and the pitching ain't good (though there's also less talent/health there).

And yes, last I looked they were down 4-0. I really do wonder how long the organization can endure this from a PR perspective. They were 2-10 when Benoit had his little tantrum and they sent the message to the public and the players that they still believed in Mackanin, and in being patient. 4-15 (assuming a loss today) since then. While I would actually admire the team for not doing something purely as a public relations movie, June and July are going to get ugly if they can't play a couple of weeks of .500 ball to at some point.

[andyb]

At least we got a Ricardo Pinto cameo. Decent velocity but poor location. Changeup has the right speed difference. He just can't keep throwing it up in the middle of the plate.

I think he has potential as a reliever but this was a little early for a callup. I guess they wanted a fresh arm because they feared Nola would not go deep again.

After Lively I guess they should go back to Pivetta who had 2 decent AAA starts since they sent him down. A little early for Eshelman though I suppose he is what he is - a 5th starter who can put up innings if needed. He did not need too much development from the start, though my expectations are not that high.

[Philsmania]

June of 1997 had that 1-19 stretch (eight game losing streak, a win with Schilling on the hill, then an eleven game losing streak). Phillies were 23-60 and on pace to break the '62 Mets mark at that point.

June of 2015 was also also historically bad and had comically had the bullpen phone off the hook in Baltimore, Francoeur left in an inning too long and Utley yelling at McClure on the mound. Sandberg quit not long after that.

I don't know where May of 2017 fits in the rogue gallery of months.

[EastFallowfield]

Phils have had a lead in 6 of their last 108 innings. One inning they had a lead of more than a run (2), Sunday, lasted about 3 batters.

[bkeich]

Phils have had a lead in 6 of their last 108 innings. One inning they had a lead of more than a run (2), Sunday, lasted about 3 batters.

Those are some truly awful numbers. I don't even know what they should do about this, McKinnon is not a good manager but it is impossible to hang all of this on him. He is just a placeholder but extending him was extremely dumb and I suspect they will get to pay for it before long. I doubt there is any chance left that he will manage next season barring a huge turnaround.

I am still on Stairs bandwagon, but it is getting lonely here. I think he has the right idea, I even think he has the respect of the players and they listen, but I just think there are some that are not able to implement what they are seeing/learning. Hoepfully he can step in with Franco and get him to actually change his outlook.

I think Herrera is just mirred in a bad slump. His approach is always all over the place, he is sometimes patient, sometimes over aggressive, hopefully that will moderate as he ages. He is a different kinda guy and I think he is a little hard to get to focus at times. He will work his way out of this I assume, but we might want to expect him to be streaky.

Rupp is a guy that I suspect may be hearing footsteps and it is causing him to push a little too hard. His job is less than secure and he has to know that really no matter what he does he can't stop the train. Same with Galvis.

[EastFallowfield]

Marlins hadn't won consecutive games in over a month. Swept the Phils easily. 6-22 in May, worst month in two decades.

[zambonir]

June of 1997 had that 1-19 stretch (eight game losing streak, a win with Schilling on the hill, then an eleven game losing streak). Phillies were 23-60 and on pace to break the '62 Mets mark at that point.

June of 2015 was also also historically bad and had comically had the bullpen phone off the hook in Baltimore, Francoeur left in an inning too long and Utley yelling at McClure on the mound. Sandberg quit not long after that.

I don't know where May of 2017 fits in the rogue gallery of months.

This was in one of the articles, that they've had a similiarly bad streak every season in recent years (the bullpen phone thing was mentioned). But that was also over a week ago.

[Patchmk88]

On the bright side, Franco had 2 hits today.

[California_Dreamin]

Padres picked up another game on the Phils by sweeping the Cubs today.

[DurhamBull]

Another awful game today that nobody's mentioning.

I wanted to start a thread, but was too busy working.

Today's game was worse than awful. Bad pitching, bad fielding, bad hitting, against a bad team.

The first inning summed up a lot about the game. Hernández walked, and on the radio broadcast during Altherr's AB, LA was questioning why Hernández didn't try to steal second. Sure enough, Kendrick hit into a double play and Straily faced the minimum. In the Marlins' half of the first, Dee Gordon walked, stole second, and scored on a single.

Repeat for 8 more innings and you get the picture.

[Austinfan]

Dee Gordon is why Quinn shouldn't come up until he learns how to make contact, especially how to choke up with 2 strikes, when you have that kind of speed, swinging for the fences with 2 strikes should be a fineable offense. He's got to forget about HRs and focus on getting that OBP up, up, up.

This team is snakebit right now, Pinto's first inning in it just seemed the ball had eyes.
He actually showed good stuff, 95-97 FB, nice changeup, needs a breaking ball but also needs that year in the Lehigh bullpen.
In fact, that holds for a bunch of these pitchers - I can see them struggling en masse this year, up and down next year, and in 2019 suddenly bursting out.

I'm starting to think we have the wrong hitters, and I won't be shocked if Klentak makes a lot of changes after this season, and Williams and Alfaro may not be safe either - with the new emphasis on analytics, some of the players obtained by the old regime may get moved for others who are more amenable to coaching and working a count. At this point in the rebuild, putting a package together of free swingers for the right 3B is not out of the question. Stairs had them working ABs in April, but the last few weeks just too many hitters swinging widely, at some point maybe it isn't the coach, maybe it's the players.

On the other hand, I'm getting more and more skeptical about McClure because mechanics seems to be the issue with a bunch of pitchers.

The good news is that Kendrick and Benoit seem to have trade value, now if Saunders and Hellickson would get with the program.

[allentown]

I'm not sure how bought in the Phillies management actually is to taking more walks. The manager held a team meeting a few days ago and his message, as reported to the media, was that his team needed to get more aggressive. I agree with you that our hitters should work the count more, swing at fewer bad pitches, and take more walks, while trying to hit strikes, especially strikes which are 'their' pitches. In the majors and minors our players need to be better base runners. There is a lot of missing fundamentals. It is good that we have an expanded analytics department, but do they have any impact upon Pete?

BTW, Dusty Wathan handled Appel very well on Monday -- let him pitch the 5 innings for the win, but got him out of there, despite a not all that high pitch count, while he still had a shutout and could leave on an up note.

[VoteForKalas]

I'm not sure how bought in the Phillies management actually is to taking more walks. The manager held a team meeting a few days ago and his message, as reported to the media, was that his team needed to get more aggressive. I agree with you that our hitters should work the count more, swing at fewer bad pitches, and take more walks, while trying to hit strikes, especially strikes which are 'their' pitches. In the majors and minors our players need to be better base runners. There is a lot of missing fundamentals. It is good that we have an expanded analytics department, but do they have any impact upon Pete?

BTW, Dusty Wathan handled Appel very well on Monday -- let him pitch the 5 innings for the win, but got him out of there, despite a not all that high pitch count, while he still had a shutout and could leave on an up note.

Exactly....I see little evidence that walks and getting on base is central to the offensive approach as well.

In reality, I see little evidence that we have any definable offensive approach which is truly scary.

I also see little evidence there is any consistent offensive approach or philosophy being taught throughout the minors to prepare and develop our hitters.

I agree an important issue is the talent we have are not of the elite level, but another important issue could also be we are not helping them improve with a lack of an integrated development philosophy and structure.