2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

allentown 2017-08-09 19:08:19 UTC #121

I know you can't be elite. Can you be a solid #3 starter?

bigegypt0417 2017-08-09 19:19:14 UTC #122

His FB is in the low 80's....

Austinfan 2017-08-09 19:19:18 UTC #123

If the right laboratory can work on me.

Philsmania 2017-08-09 20:09:55 UTC #124

How about Arrieta on a one year deal and hope for a rebound?

andyb 2017-08-09 20:22:38 UTC #125

I doubt he would do that, which is the problem. I feel better about 7 years from Darvish than 5 from Arrieta even if they are close to the same age. I think Arrieta will get $100 million from somebody so it is probably not an option he would eventually go for. More likely is that Arrieta gets a 5-year deal with an opt out after the first or second year.

allentown 2017-08-09 20:30:12 UTC #126

Money better spent than buying multiple lesser players for $60+million, but Arrieta isn't just a bounce-back from an off season. This is his 2nd straight season of decline. If you look at what has changed most significantly for him in the 3-true outcomes, this year is the third year in a row that his HR rate has increased, and the increase is huge. The very good news is that he had a very good July and start to August, so his problems may be behind him.

Part of me says not a big gain on a one-year deal. We're not getting in done in 2018, so you are talking about a tiny bounce back and flip him for prospects, I guess. Even if Arrietta stays the same or gets slightly worse, he will have trade value to a conteder. I'd strongly prefer more than a year on a deal, so that we have a chance of him contributing to a Phillies team with a chance to actually go somewhere. The ideal would be a 3-year contract, but he is probably going to get 5 years. You have to treat the last year or two as a loss. Rather than clutter up the payroll 5 years from now, I'd prefer to pay more upfront and include team options for years 4 and 5, structured in a way that he gets 4 years of $ in 3.

andyb 2017-08-09 20:49:26 UTC #127

I just don't think there is any way Arrieta signs for anything that would be structured the way we would like it. He is 31 years old next year. Scott Boras is his agent. He has made good money in his career ($31 million) but I just think he will take the largest guarantee out there and that guarantee is not going to be on a 3-year deal. Any opt outs will be at the discretion of the player, not the team. This is his one opportunity to cash in.

He is the second best pitcher on the market even if he is in a slight decline. He will get paid $100 million by somebody.

zambonir 2017-08-09 21:44:24 UTC #128

It is going to be a very interesting off-season for sure. A year ago it seemed certain they'd play big on at least one FA. Now I'm not so sure. Maybe a #3 starter and a 4th OF. Could still be flippable type players.

Gotta be a couple of big/unexpected trades. One involving people on the current major league roster and one involving prospects. They weren't ready to get Quintana or Sonny Gray but there are others out there.

schillingfan 2017-08-09 22:16:08 UTC #129

If it will take $100 million and a big payout contract, what's wrong with $30 million for 3 years with a $10 million player option? Same amount of money as $20 mil for 5 years and he gets the money earlier for investment or whatever. This could potentially give him a second big payout at age 34, where he's likely still productive enough (I think cliffs occur around 35 or 36 for pitchers). Also good for the Phillies because we have all that extra cap space now and we'll have less in 2020.

bkox 2017-08-10 00:05:02 UTC #130

interesting tidbit to add to our analysis of Cesar Hernandez:

flyers19rw 2017-08-10 00:30:29 UTC #131

JMHO but I don't see anyone in this year's FA class that excites me. I hope that the Phillies allow the market to set itself before making any moves in it. There's no need for them to set the rate on any of these players.

bkox 2017-08-10 00:44:14 UTC #132

andyb 2017-08-10 02:03:11 UTC #133

It might be more like $150 million. I just don't think there is a short contract that he will take that is not an opt out which would leave the Phillies with nothing if he is any good. This is his one chance to cash in and he'll take it. Small factor is he will also get the QO which Darvish will not.

Austinfan 2017-08-10 03:17:48 UTC #134

Neither pitcher is worth an overspend.
You'd be better off with a 3 year deal on a solid second tier #3, which I think both Darvish and Arrieta will be in two years in any case.

nycphils 2017-08-10 03:53:42 UTC #135

Wonder what the bench looks like next year - maybe Cesar, Quinn, Knapp/Alfaro, Nava/Perkins, Joseph or other FA who can play 1st and maybe OF (Adam Lind? Stassi? Jon Jaso?)

bkox 2017-08-10 04:03:47 UTC #136

Andrew Pullin could be a bench option too. Has played LF and RF in the minors and started as a 2B. Hasnt lit up AAA but might just need more ABs.

mdougherty12 2017-08-10 06:09:46 UTC #137

Joseph doesn't seem like a good fit for a bench for a bench spot on a team that has Hoskins starting at 1B. You would want a lefty hitter or someone with defensive versatility for that spot.

Austinfan 2017-08-10 09:20:34 UTC #138

Next year:

C: Rupp, Knapp, Alfaro
1B: Hoskins
2B: Hernandez (Kingery starts in AAA)
SS: Crawford (if he keeps hitting)
3B: Franco, Galvis
LF: Williams, Stassi
CF: Herrera
RF: Altherr, Perkins

If Knapp can play 1B, OF, and Alfaro RF, you can carry 3 catchers indefinitely since one can be used as a PH, double switch
Stassi over Joseph b/c he's a defensive replacement at 1B, and LH PH who can play a credible LF.
Joseph is gone, either Back to AAA or moved, he's better than Martin so they could keep him there
Hernandez, Galvis depends on offers, they could be traded, or Kingery/Crawford (say if a top 3B prospect was available)
If Franco doesn't improve, they'll be looking to upgrade 3B but Machado is a wet dream, they're not going to win those kind of bidding wars against the big market teams (NY, LA), it's not the money (at some point it's irrelevant) but the stage.

If they get solid SP, this team could be .500.
Nola is a lock, Eickhoff is back on track, if he regains his 91-92 velocity he's a solid #3.
Velasquez, Pivetta, Eflin have ML FB but are works in progress
Eshelman is a real possibility, as is Lively.
If they add a veteran SP, I don't see Darvish or Arrieta, they'll be grossly overpriced, rather a 3 year deal for a solid 2nd tier SP..
In two to three years, the answer will be the young pitchers in the system, so you're just buying a bridge (now if a 28 year old pitcher hits the market . . . )
A closer is a possibility, depending on how Neris finishes out the season

tom81 2017-08-10 09:52:00 UTC #139

I could see them carry 3 catchers as you suggest AF but if they do they will only carry 4 real OF and Quinn would be the best choice. They will carry another middle infielder, they always carry 2 of those on the bench.

andyb 2017-08-10 10:43:03 UTC #140

Why do we hold onto Galvis and potentially Rupp and Hernandez if we are not going to start them. Yes they would be great reserves, but we would also be wasting their potential trade value. For all three of them their value is never going to be higher. If we actually want to land a better player at some of our positions of need (starting pitching, closer, maybe 3B) then why don't we think of trading these guys at the top of their value.

We have a rotation with one guy who is a 2/3 starter in Nola and the rest look like 5th starters at the moment. And one of the worst bullpens in baseball. I really don't want a SS without the bat to play 3B making $8 million as my backup utility infielder without addressing the other problems.