2017 Season Phillies Discussion (News/Notes, etc.), continued

[bigegypt0417]

Klentak will be making some deals this winter/next summer.
But he doesn't want to be boxed into making bad deals just to move players.
So I can see moves like Hoskins to LF, maybe Crawford taking some games at 3B, Knapp at 1B/OF, Alfaro in RF.
The idea is to be able to carry prospects on the ML roster until the right trade comes along.

Two reasons:
1) some players like Alfaro have to be on the ML roster next year
2) if someone like Knapp can play multiple positions, you can not only carry 3 catchers, but you don't have to waste a 25/40 slot on a veteran 1B/OF like Nava this year.

It's a short-term expedient, but one that allows Klentak to preserve "option value," think about players who got away because we lacked roster spots,
Of course, if the right deal comes along, I expect him to pull the trigger.

We should expect Hoskins at first, Kingery at second and Crawford at SS to start 2018. A good GM isn't going to continue to bury ML ready players in order for average to below average players to maybe bump their values. I also wouldn't be shocked in rupp is gone.

You idea of keeping veterans with little value to maybe create some value is a bad idea. I don't really think you have a fanbase ready to deal with that.

This has been your timeline...

2016- Keep those players because their value isn't yet high enough
2017-Keep those players just in case their value goes up
2018-Keep those players just in case their value goes up and trade them if you get a great offer

Sorry...it's the same plan for 3 years.

[andyb]

It seems to me that the idea to trade Hernandez is specifically BECAUSE he has great value. He is further away from free agency than Galvis (so less expensive and can be controlled for more years) and is simply a better player. He has basically been a 3 WAR player the last 2 years. Not an all star but an above average regular when healthy. Galvis was 1.3 last year and might get close to 2.0 WAR by the end of this year.

In terms of replacements Crawford is a little closer and likely a little better than Kingery. There is a reason to replace both Galvis and Hernandez if one is looking at 3 years from now. The Galvis replacement decision seems easier because it is looking much more likely that Crawford is going to be better and there is likely no difference next year. With Hernandez it is less certain Kingery will be better since Hernandez himself is better.

So it is easier to replace Galvis. But Hernandez has more trade value.

[Austinfan]

And hasn't it worked?
Klentak got about as much value as he could out of most players, some bad luck.
Even Hellickson was a wash, the one good deal fell through, and there were no rumors of other significant offers, he got a half year out of him (protecting young arms, we still had to rush Pivetta, Thompson and Eflin) and still obtained some value in trade.

Hernandez, Galvis and Rupp have improved their value significantly over this season.
(Though at this point I doubt they trade Rupp since Alfaro is no lock to hit ML pitching).
Joseph has flatlined, but nothing from nothing is still nothing, he never had that much value to begin with, only a hot finish can create value.
Everyone else of value has been traded except Nava and Blanco, and I doubt there's a market for Blanco.
In the pen, the only tradeable assets are Garcia and Neris, and there are few alternatives - with a young starting staff, we really can't afford to strip the bullpen.

[bigegypt0417]

And hasn't it worked?
Klentak got about as much value as he could out of most players, some bad luck.
Even Hellickson was a wash, the one good deal fell through, and there were no rumors of other significant offers, he got a half year out of him (protecting young arms, we still had to rush Pivetta, Thompson and Eflin) and still obtained some value in trade.

Hernandez, Galvis and Rupp have improved their value significantly over this season.
(Though at this point I doubt they trade Rupp since Alfaro is no lock to hit ML pitching).
Joseph has flatlined, but nothing from nothing is still nothing, he never had that much value to begin with, only a hot finish can create value.
Everyone else of value has been traded except Nava and Blanco, and I doubt there's a market for Blanco.
In the pen, the only tradeable assets are Garcia and Neris, and there are few alternatives - with a young starting staff, we really can't afford to strip the bullpen.

No, it hasn't worked. The strategy worked until you had players ready to move up. These returns aren't really anything you can point to as success.

So basically hope for more of the same while players get older waiting?

Are you really advocating impeding your own prospects at the hope you can get a better trade one of these years?

[Lawman]

Matt Gelb (MattGelb)

[LoneStarPhan]

Matt Gelb (MattGelb)

First thought: Instant dislike.

[tom81]

First thought: Instant dislike.

Second thought: More dislike.

[allentown]

There is a problem with this strategy. If the measures you describe are doable, then likely the world of GMs understand this, which gives Klentak some leverage due to some time flexibility. These moves are NOT viable in the intermediate term. IMHO this means that the passage of time will reduce Klentak's leverage. Hoskins in the OF doesn't work intermediate term, both because he's not a good defender and because Klentak has other legit young OFs to find space for: Altherr, Odubel, Williams (well perhaps not 100% legit yet), and Quinn (ditto). Plus, Joseph simply isn't that good. At 2B/SS Crawford and Kingery force the issue sooner rather than later. Klentak has perhaps until June at most to resolve both Galvis/Crawford and Hernandez/Kingery and really just over the winter to resolve one of these situations. That's not even considering the effect on 40-man and possible performance backsliding next ST/April.

Time is not on Klentak's side. What leverage he has today from not being in a situation where he MUST make a trade RIGHT NOW is VERY fleeting.

[allentown]

I think they're really UGLY. The plus is that they are so very different that they might almost become collectible, if you can get past the ugliness of the jersey.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Patience.
Anybody who thought rebuilding would come off without a hitch, was delusional.
I love this team and where they're headed. The results so far have obviously not been there, but when you look around the diamond, who do you go out and upgrade on? Tommy Joseph?
Sure, you can assume that a guy that just turned 26 has already peaked and that Hoskins is "the real deal", but there are no guarantees. Maikel Franco? Maybe, though he won't turn 25 for a few more weeks. I have no doubt that if he were on another team, we'd love to give him a shot.
I look at these players as individual parts and I like what I see. They just haven't put it together as a team yet.
Remember, it wasn't that long ago when pretty much no one on this board saw Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez as full time starters in the Major Leagues, now we talk about whether we should commit to them long term or trade them as if another team would see them as there long term answers in the middle infield.
If it was up to me, I'd let Tommy Joseph play out the string at 1B(as long as he doesn't fall on his face the last 2 months), pray for 25+ HR's, then hope some other team (probably AL) sees him as a long term, inexpensive power bat and makes us a decent offer.
I'd try to strengthen the back end of the bullpen, pick up a couple lefties, then let the players play. Crawford, Kingery, Cozens all could use more time at AAA, along with the pitching depth.
What I don't want is to start forcing the process by making foolish mistakes.
These are good times to be Phillies Phans.

[allentown]

A good GM isn't going to continue to bury ML ready players in order for average to below average players to maybe bump their values.

I think this is true. The reason they might not bring up Kingery/Crawford before May-June is to reduce service time and gain an extra season of team control and avoidance of arb.Given the Phillies revenue, payroll, and willingness to spend $60+ million on dreck one-year vets this past off-season, I don't think the team does this to save $. They might well do it to keep the guy with the team an extra season if they are less than sure they can extend him if they want to.

[bigegypt0417]

A good GM isn't going to continue to bury ML ready players in order for average to below average players to maybe bump their values.

I think this is true. The reason they might not bring up Kingery/Crawford before May-June is to reduce service time and gain an extra season of team control and avoidance of arb.

That is definitely a possibility but my thinking is if they go to ST and earn their spot they will go north.

Keeping them in the minors to possibly catch lightning in a bottle seems to hold back young players ready to move up.

[zambonir]

Gonna be hard to trade four starters out of eight (Rupp, Galvis, Hernandez, Joseph) in one off-season. Joseph will get moved 'cause it won't be that huge a deal. I figure one of Rupp or Hernandez gets moved. Then Galvis at the deadline.

And just for fun I predict that one of Quinn, Tocci, Williams and Cozens will get traded (though in Quinn's case I'm not sure he even makes the 40, even though he'd 100% get picked). As part of a bigger deal, perhaps to acquire an OF or SP or in a deal where the Phillies are taking $.

[andyb]

Preview of the top 10 free agents:

2017-18 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

Not sure I am enamored with anybody beyond Darvish. I'd probably go $30 million a year on Darvish for 6-7 years though. We need to remember that contracts like that are relatively easy for us to absorb since our new core will not get expensive for another 4 or 5 years and even those contracts can be backloaded somewhat at that time.

I could also seeing us add a closer though that would not be my top priority. Franco probably gets another year before we have to re-evaluate there. And I don't think JD Martinez adds much if we feel good about a starting OF of Herrera, Altherr, and Williams for next year. With hopefully Quinn and Cozens pushing them.

[Austinfan]

Wouldn't touch either SP, why would you overpay a SP who'll turn 32 in 2018 when you won't be seriously contending until probably 2020?
Both pitchers are probably past their peak and would be at best the #2 behind Nola, and in two to three years, ready to fall off the career cliff.
I don't care if we pay them $30M the next two to three years, but I don't want to be stuck with another "Howard" contract from 2021-2024.

[andyb]

Darvish would be worth it even if the last couple of years are a total bust. The Phillies need a number one or two starter. He may be the only free agent that seems a decent bet to be one. What better use do we have for our money? No QO as well since he was traded.

Now I doubt we can outbid the Dodgers and the Yankees here, but it would be a good idea in the same way Lester was a good idea for the Cubs. We could add Darvish and still have plenty of cash to go after Machado if we wanted to the following year. And Machado may cost $400 million rather than $200 million.

There is little cost other than dollars out of the owners' profit margin to signing a Darvish for 6-7 years at $30 million per.

[Austinfan]

Like I said, I'm happy to spend Middleton's money the next three years, even to overpay for a #2 starter, soon to be a #3 or worse.
But past 2021 or so, I don't want bad salaries on the books, because I don't want my core young players to walk.

I'd much rather take a bad salary off some team at a minimal cost in prospects than sign a 32 year old #2 starter to a long-term deal.
It would make more sense to overpay a declining pitcher for the last 2-3 years of his deal to add short-term depth while the kids grow up.

[Dirk41]

I love the concept. Baseball is long and nothing wrong with mixing things up like this. Like it much more than the terrible unis they pop out for every holiday.

That being said, the Phillies have the absolute worst sets of these jerseys. They could have went with light blue, maroon, even blue and red. These are bad.

I can't wait until Under Armour takes over. I suspect they will be using their new flannel technology and the Phillies may (hopefully) debut a grey and navy "Phil's" set.

[andyb]

You are NOT happy to spend Middleton's money however since you set up a fantasy of being able to acquire really good players on 3-4 years. The extra years are the cost of doing business. Or if you trade for these players you end up giving up prospects as well.

If there are quality players at the top of the free agent market the Phillies NEED to participate in that market if they have holes to fill. Even if the move fails it is only money, and that is what you just don't get. Since the Phillies are not near the luxury pool line and unlikely to be in 5 years - money is their greatest advantage.

[Austinfan]

But why waste it on 32 pitchers who aren't even elite?
Just give it to me!