2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

andyb 2017-12-11 16:09:31 UTC #582

I am expecting a trade of either Galvis or Hernandez. I would prefer it be Hernandez because that would bring the most value back, but I could also see the team being conservative and dealing Galvis first because Crawford is ready and Kingery ideally gets a couple more months in the minors.

That, a rule 5 selection, and a reliever being signed (Neshek seems the obvious one) are kind of what I expect this week.

Austinfan 2017-12-11 16:48:30 UTC #583

If Klentak could replace Franco at a reasonable cost he would, other than that, it's a matter of opportunity.
Makes no sense to trade Galvis unless you get a decent prospect, i.e. top 20 or better, a marginal prospect, better just to keep him for a year and let him walk.
Hernandez will have value, just a matter of waiting for the right deal.
Building up the back of the bullpen, adding an innings eater, adding veteran depth for the bench.

That's all I really expect, the farm system is deep, despite criticism they did land 4 of the top 50 LA guys plus the Braves catcher, they should have a great draft.
They have money and will add some players, but I think the best use would be to front load a Nola extension.

Philsmania 2017-12-11 17:28:30 UTC #584

I pretty much expect the same with one but probably not both of the middle infielders being traded with Hernandez the more likely one though teams do seem to see value these days in glove guys for the bench and Galvis certainly fits that bill. Neshek really seemed to like it here (he cried when he was traded, if memory serves me correctly) so I wouldn't be surprised if he's back. And yes, they do seem to be lining things up for a Rule 5 pick though, as I have said, I am not convinced this is the year for them to be doing that. We shall see.

andyb 2017-12-11 17:32:49 UTC #585

After seeing all the details on Stanton part of me kind of wishes the Phillies had dealt for him. We were always contemplating a deal that would have given us Yelich who we truly wanted. But what if we had just gotten Stanton? The deal the Yankees just got was of lesser value than if the Phillies had dealt Hernandez, Kilome, and Gamboa. We could probably flip Seranthony in there for Kilome and it would still be a better deal. And $30 million is coming back plus maybe that could have been $40 million since Miami is not picking up the Starlin Castro contract.

Stanton was not the Philles' biggest need so I am OK with the Phillies not getting him. But the other side is that they got the NL MVP for basically nothing. The Phillies really need to take advantage of small market teams dumping contracts. We REALLY need to do this. Our advantage is our financial resources and farm system depth. We need to start using it instead of behaving like a small market team. Otherwise we are wasting resources.

allentown 2017-12-11 17:58:56 UTC #586

Why would he agree to come to Philly? This team isn't being geared to win in 2018.

saycheese 2017-12-11 17:59:54 UTC #587

Stanton would not have come here, just like he wouldn't go to the Giants or the Cardinals. He controlled the process and that is what a NTC does for you. I would have given up more for him, pairing him with Hoskins would have been a pretty lethal duo. I love the fact that the Yankees cited one of the reasons why they wanted him is that their ballpark plays to more of a home run park like Ciitzens bank park. Something you never hear from the Phillies

bigegypt0417 2017-12-11 18:05:05 UTC #588

unless something changes with the steinbrenners this year this takes them out of the picture for next years FA's. They do not want to go over the luxury tax threshold.

andyb 2017-12-11 18:14:25 UTC #589

Post was more about how the Phillies should be making these types of deals. Make a couple of them and winning now may be possible. We keep watching rich teams acquire all stars for little prospect cost. All the Stanton talk was speculation. He might have wanted to come to Philly with the right persuasion also. Improving young team that can still afford him in a few years.

andyb 2017-12-11 18:16:40 UTC #590

I don't think it takes them out of the running at all. This makes it less attractive for Harper because of position (though in the DH league they have an extra spot to play with). I don't believe the Yankees for a second that they really care about the luxury tax. Now they probably don't want to be that far over it, but I think their real goal is to just get younger and better. No luxury tax is just PR. They can afford it if they have to. I expect them to make a play for Darvish in the coming week.

julio 2017-12-11 18:19:45 UTC #591

The image that formed in my mind was that of a bloody horse's head in Stanton's bed...

Philsmania 2017-12-11 18:21:11 UTC #592

The Yankees are almost certainly out of the running for Harper but the Phillies would probably be in third behind the Dodgers and Cubs and perhaps even the Cardinals.

DougLindsay 2017-12-11 18:47:44 UTC #593

Doubt he has interest in the Cards and if they do sign him they should have to release every play they selected with the competitive balance picks they got.

julio 2017-12-11 18:51:26 UTC #594

Well, this clinches it. The Phils aren't making any effort to be competitive in 2018!

zambonir 2017-12-11 19:40:29 UTC #595

I definitely would have traded for Stanton based on what the Yankees gave him. But if the Giants (a West Coast team) and the Cardinals couldn't get him to come there he wasn't coming to Philadelphia.

My understanding is the Yankees still intend to get under the luxury tax threshold this year. Stanton's AAV is $22 million (it would be 25 but they get relief from the part the Marlins pay) and they've subtracted almost $9 million with Castro.

Would you help them with their problem if they are also your competition for future free agents? Take Ellsbury (paying half his salary) as your bench OF and Headley, plus a prospect for basically nothing in return. Then you can also trade them both at the deadline (Phillies would still have to pay for Ellsbury going forward) for another couple or four prospects of varying quality.

andyb 2017-12-11 20:33:40 UTC #596

I think the AAV is recalculated for a player based on the remaining contract at the time of the trade. So AAV is more like $25.5 for Stanton.

Slinging_Southpaw 2017-12-11 21:19:39 UTC #597

Ellsbury has a full no trade clause and I think, given the choice, he'd rather sit the bench in New York than in Philly.

Philsmania 2017-12-11 21:23:34 UTC #598

Zolecki makes it sound like the odds are good that Neshek will be back.

Philsmania 2017-12-11 21:24:59 UTC #599

Per Heyman, the asking price is high for Hernandez.

bigegypt0417 2017-12-11 21:33:26 UTC #600

Names attached

Austinfan 2017-12-11 21:35:40 UTC #601

The one reason for Baltimore to do it, and at a discount, is to keep Machado away from Boston and the Yankees.
But that only works if he signs an extension.