2017-18 Off-season Trade/Free Agent Speculation

[andyb]

Everybody other than the Yankees or the Phillies would be trading for one year of Machado

Though from the Phillies perspective there is no reason to make a 1-year deal because we are not certain enough to be competitive even with Machado. I think it is POSSIBLE that 5 wins from Machado pushes us into wild card territory, but not PROBABLE.

[Philsmania]

The Orioles--and Blue Jays, Pirates and Giants, for that matter--are in that gray area where the Phillies were in heading out of 2012. Coming off a disappointing season but yet, it was not entirely clear whether or not it was time to rebuild. Of course, with the benefit of hindsight, we say that it was but at the time, it wasn't clear. The O's probably still think that they can contend in 2018. Hence, I doubt they move Machado.

[bkeich]

Though from the Phillies perspective there is no reason to make a 1-year deal because we are not certain enough to be competitive even with Machado. I think it is POSSIBLE that 5 wins from Machado pushes us into wild card territory, but not PROBABLE.

I agree, but at some point you have to start making deals to move forward, and I think we (hopefully) are close to that. No one deal will get us from one of the worst teams in MLB to a contender, we have to make a few and they should at least start. There is no player out there to add the 20-25 WAR we need, you have to add some pieces and hope that our young players add a few extra (i.e a whole year of Hoskins vs. Joseph, etc.)

If we don't compete this year we will be very low on the list of places for next years FA's, and the cycle continues. Our young players will eventually start getting older. The idea of a completely home grown team is wildly optimistic, we don't have those type of prospects, we have guys that could be solid performers, but I don't see any likely HOF candidates on our roster or in our minors. We don't even have a Cole Hamels, who was clearly going to be very good once he made it to the majors as he dominated his entire minor league career (minus injuries).

At some point this franchise has to start to get ML talent also, not just continue to gather minor league talent. It is nice that our minor league teams keep winning games, but the whole point is the major league team to win, and we need help from outside sources to do that.

[bigegypt0417]

Everybody other than the Yankees or the Phillies would be trading for one year of Machado

Though from the Phillies perspective there is no reason to make a 1-year deal because we are not certain enough to be competitive even with Machado. I think it is POSSIBLE that 5 wins from Machado pushes us into wild card territory, but not PROBABLE.

Trading for Machado and placing him at 3rd base gives you the franchise player you need. You still have tons of money to add around him. No one move will make the Phillies contenders but Machado is certainly a good start.

[zambonir]

Someone will certainly trade a lot for just one year (or even one half-year) of Machado. Not as much as when you get someone like Verlander or Hamels (or Cliff Lee in 2009) with years remaining, but still more than the Phillies would or should give up.

It makes more sense for the Orioles to hold him until the deadline, they are not going to give up on the season, and teams also pay more in the heat of the deadline than they would now. The only way a deal works now is if it does come with an extension. Obviously the Phillies would have to think hard about that. It almost reminds me of when the Flyers traded a first-round pick back to Nashville for the right to open negotiations with Hartnell and Timonen for 10 days. In this case the Phillies would get a lot more than that, i.e. his 2018 production.

[EDmuch]

Well if the rumor is true that Ohtani is signing with the Angels, that may remove the Mike Trout pipe dream since playing as part of a combo with Ohtani could be just what is needed to keep Trout in LA. So we better load up for Machado if we want a true franchise player.

[Austinfan]

Or just play Hoskins!

[Philsmania]

Well if the rumor is true that Ohtani is signing with the Angels, that may remove the Mike Trout pipe dream since playing as part of a combo with Ohtani could be just what is needed to keep Trout in LA. So we better load up for Machado if we want a true franchise player.

In the short term, yes, with regard to Trout. As for long-term, well, it all depends, as they say. The Angels' farm system is still pretty bad and come the end of 2019, the Angels may still be looking down the barrel of a rebuild and Trout may send signals to the Angels that he's interested in exploring free agency after 2020 but might consider an extension if traded to Philadelphia. If anything, maybe the Angels' signing Ohtani is an effort to shove the window open another couple of seasons. Nonetheless, you can have an ace pitcher and a great player but if you don't have the ability to give them a supporting cast, your team is not going to be terribly successful (see the Phillies when they had Schilling and Rolen).

[tom81]

Ken Rosenthal on Twitter

[zambonir]

"Also" meaning he refused to go to St. Louis.

(Meanwhile, Rosenthal says Domingo Martinez is available in trade.)

[nycphils]

I think the Ohtani signing makes it more likely the Angels deal for Cesar - their middle of the lineup is devastating with Trout-Ohtani-Upton in the middle with Simmons at SS, Cesar is perfect for the top of the order.

Since they are poor at C as well, I wonder if Cesar and Rupp are enough to get Jahmai Jones, whose position is blocked with Pujols at DH and Ohtani/Upton/Trout all under contract for several years.

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 50 | Field: 60 | Overall: 50

Obviously, he might have to move in deference to that Trout fellow, but he has the arm and offensive profile to be just fine in a corner. With off-the-charts makeup and work ethic, don't be surprised to see Jones start to move a little more quickly and vault up prospect rankings.

[Squire]

The Powers That Be directed Zolecki to write his annual "now is not the time to be pursuing high priced free agents but someday soon the Phillies will be big players and the stars will want to come here again" article.

[phillychuck]

Stanton allegedly headed to the Yankees, which could make us the only team with enough money to chase Machado and Harper.

[EDmuch]

The Yanks taking Stanton is just about the only good MLB news I have heard in the past ten days.When the biggest joy of the off-season is the Rule 5 draft, you are rooting for a team that is not serious about competing this year.

[nycphils]

Stanton to Yanks for Castro and mid level prospects.

Unfortunately the Yanks will still stay below the lux tax this year, which means their penalty will reset and be lower if they go over again in ‘19. Therefore, they are expected to still bid for Machado, although Harper not likely (though I think the Cubs are the favorite there).

If (big if) the O’s make Machado available, I think the Phils need to trade for him and then try to sign him - not sure they will get a chance otherwise. Can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

[zambonir]

I guess it's moot because he wouldn't have approved a trade the Phillies sure could have put together a deal for him.

Now the Phillies' biggest worry is probably losing a bidder for Hernandez, as teams will try to acquire Castro (though Cesar sure looks like a cheaper and quite possibly better alternative).

[zambonir]

ESPN's Schoenfield notes that none of Keith Law's Top 21 (out of 50) free agents are signed yet, and predicts that "many of these deals aren't going to come down until late January or even the early days of spring training." That seems unlikely to me but hey, I don't cover baseball.

(He goes on to specifically predict Darvish, Arrieta, JD Martinez and Hosmer won't get signed until January. Sounds like he expects trade market to be bigger than FA market this week.)

Your guide to the winter meetings: Superstars, blockbusters -- and total chaos

[EDmuch]

Well let's see if this FO can actually make a constructive move at the winter meetings to improve their roster rather than adding two deputy assistant batting coaches. I am not sure they can do it. But it would be nice if they did.

[bigegypt0417]

Well let's see if this FO can actually make a constructive move at the winter meetings to improve their roster rather than adding two deputy assistant batting coaches. I am not sure they can do it. But it would be nice if they did.

There are no major moves coming...you may want to be ready for that.

[EDmuch]

I said "constructive" not "major". but you are probably right.