Let's see what pitchers that are basically 3 WAR guys with shaky track records (i.e. injuries, lack of extended durability) like the ones available this year actually garnered in free agency:
(age at first year of new contract)
[prorate starts and IP in 2017 by 10%]
Alex Cobb (30) 2017, 30s 185 IP, 3.59 ERA/4.16 FIP, 2.6 (BR)/2.5 (FG) WAR (91.9 MPH, new measurement uptick, 2 years from injury)
Lance Lynn (31) 2017, 33s 194 IP, 3.01/4.71, 4.1/1.7 WAR (92.5 MPH, a mile slower than before his injury, 1.5 with new measurements)
Yu Darvish (32) 2017, 32s 191 IP, 4.08/4.02, 3.7/3.2 WAR (94.7 MPH)
Jake Arrieta (32) 2016-17, 33s 187 IP, 3.27/3.74, 2.8/3.4 WAR - velocity fell from 94.3 to 92.6, buyer beware!
None of these guys will break the bank - they're significantly below the top pitchers in durability, ERA/FIP and WAR. So forget anything over $20M.
All have question marks, Darvish will get the most money, probably similar to Kazmir with a 10% inflation uptick, say 3yr/$54M or 4yr/$68M, or 5yr/$80M
Cobb and Lynn will probably get no more than 3yr/$48M pr 4yr/$60M and might take 1 year "prove I'm healthy" deals if they want to gamble.
A lot of teams will shy away from Arrieta.
The fact that none pitched regularly in 2016 and only averaged 6 IP or less per start will raise questions about long-term durability, none qualify as "horses."
The market has been set over the last three years, and adjustments for cap inflation will only be 5-10%.
Luxury tax limit:
2014 $189,000,000
2015 $189,000,000
2016 $189,000,000
2017 $195,000,000
2018 $197,000,000
2019 $206,000,000 - 9% total increase since 2015
2016:
Rich Hill (37), 2016 20s, 110 IP, 2.12 ERA/2.39 FIP, 4.2/3.8 WAR, before that nothing for a few years, 3yr $48M
Ivan Nova (30), 2016 26s, 162 IP, 4.17 ERA/4.11 FIP, 2.0/2.3 WAR, last good season was 2013, 3yr, $26M
Most of the big pitcher signings were RPs, Chapman, Jansen, Melancon
I think the thin market was due to 2015 setting the price, and teams then resigning their own players.
2015:
Zack Grienke (32) 2014-15, 32s, 212 IP, 2.10/2.86, 6.8/5.1, 6yr, $206M (92.5 MPH) - $34M
David Price (31) 2014-15, 33s, 214 IP, 2.86/2.78, 4.1/6.3, 7yr, $217M (94..7 MPH) - $31M
Johnny Cueto (30) 2014-15, 33s, 228 IP, 2.90/3.41, 4.3/5.2 WAR, 6yr, $130M (velocity peaked in 2014 at 93.1, 92.5 in 2015) - $22M
Jordan Zimmerman (30) 2014-15, 33s, 201 IP, 3.16/3.21, 4.2/4.2 WAR. 5yr, $110M - $22M
Jeff Samardzija (31) 2014-15, 33s, 217 IP, 3.98/3.70, 2.0/3.3 WAR, 5yr, $90M (95.0 MPH) - $18M
Wei-Yen Chen (31) 2014-15, 31s, 188 IP, 3.44/4.03, 2.8/2.6 WAR, 5yr, $80M (91.5 MPH) - $16M
Mike Leake (31) 2014-15, 33s, 203 IP, 3.70/4.02, 2.2/2.0 WAR, 5yr, $80M (92.6 MPH) - $16M
Scott Kazmir (32) 2014-15, 32s, 187 IP, 3.31/3.65, 2.5/2.7, 3yr, $48M (92.7 MPH) - $16M
Ian Kennedy (31) 2014-15, 32s, 185 IP, 3.92/3.81, 0.5/2.0, 5yr, $70M (92.5 MPH) - $14M
J.A. Happ (33) 2014-15, 29s, 165 IP, 3.90/3.82, 2.2/2.2, 3yr/$36M (93.0 MPH) - $12M
Yovani Gallardo (30) 2014-15, 32s, 184 IP, 3.47/3.97, 3.3/2.2 WAR, 2yr, $22M (velocity fell from 91.4 to 90.4 in 2015) - $11M
2014:
Maz Scherzer (31) 2013-14, 33s 217 IP, 3.03/2.80, 6.4/5.7 WAR, 7yr, $210M (94.1) - $30M
Jon Lester (31) 2013-14, 33s 216 IP, 3.10/3.19, 3.8/4.6 WAR, 6yr $155M (93.4 MPH) - $26M
James Shields (33) 2013-14, 34s, 228 IP, 3.18/3.53, 3.7/3.6 WAR, 4yr, $75M (93.3 MPH) - $19M
Ervin Santana (32) 2013-14, 32s 203 IP, 3.58/3.69, 2.1/2.7, 4yr, $55M (93.4 MPH) - $13M
Francisco Liriano (31) 2013-14, 28s, 162 IP, 3.20/3.25, 2.3/2.6, 3yr, $39M (93.8 MPH) - $13M
Brandon McCarthy (32), 2014, 32s, 200 IP, 4.05/3.55, 1./2.9 WAR, 4yr, $48M (4.2 MPH) - $11M