There are two games left, but not much to learn from them, they're going to end up with 70-71 wins, which is about what I expected before the season (70-75). They won some games early they should have lost, they lost some games late b/c Pete has irrational faith in Gomez as a closer.
( ) - 2017 age
C: Rupp (28) had a solid season, 1.8 WAR in 411 PA. 9th in the majors, and the two guys ahead of him had far more PA. His BB% was down, K rate up, ISO jumped from .141 to .199, BABIP up, but I suspect that's less of a fluke than higher exit velocity (fangraphs.com/fantasy/eight- ... heir-xoba/) and regression to the mean. Alfaro isn't ready, and will probably spend the year at Lehigh, so Rupp is going to be your 2017 catcher. I expect incremental improvement, Rupp uses the whole field, he just needs to be more disciplined at the plate. He's decently defensively, though no gold gloves are in his future. They could go with Knapp as the backup, but I expect them to bring back Ellis or another veteran catcher to caddy Rupp.
1B: Joseph (26 in July) is the man. Yes, he has a platoon split, .912/.774, driven primarily by a much higher BB rate against LHP. Hot start, struggled in August, bounced back in September - the league adjusted and he adjusted back. July/September, BB/K 10.2/15.7, August 6.2/26.2. Remember he only had 446 PA at AA/AAA the last three seasons combined! So we're not talking a finished product. He has tremendous power to all fields, and as he improves his pitch recognition, the sky is the limit. He can hit any pitch, but the lost 1000 PA has him 2 years behind in his development. Defensively, he's a good athlete, but it'll take time, he improved as the year progressed, but not playing everyday didn't help. Don't see a gold glove, but do think with his catching experience and his arm, he could eventually be a plus fielder at 1B.
2B: Hernandez (27 in May). At age 23, he had a .375 OBP in AAA ball before a lost 2014 when he got shuffled around. So this year's performance shouldn't be a shocker. Basically 2016 was an incremental improvement over 2015, when he started hot then got cold, this year he started cold, then got hot once he was the leadoff hitter (he actually hit well in the 7th/8th spot, but not #2 - strangely enough he was a better #2 than leadoff hitter in 2015). However, his slow start might have been partially due to bad luck, given his high exit velocity (fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-ch ... ght-angle/). I think the problem with Hernandez is just maturity, he tends to lose focus, both at the plate and on the basepaths. But he works hard to improve, he went from a mediocre fielder to a potential gold glover in one season. He had a 16% BB rate the second half, so much for needing power to draw walks, but it also shows how he accepted the responsiblity of being a leadoff hitter.
SS: Galvis (27). While his hitting raises eyebrows, there's no question about his fielding, he may not win a golden glove, but he'll be in the conversation. Question is whether his second half is sustainable:
2015: .263/.302/.343./645
2016 1st H: .234/.263/.368/.631
2016 2nd H: .252./290.441/.731
He sacrificed power for contact in 2015, contact for power in the first H, and combined them in the second half.
Freddy is never going to be a disciplined hitter, but his swing looks much better, and given his fielding, a .730 OPS makes him a 3-4 WAR player (2.5 for the whole season in 2016).
The development of Galvis, and Crawford's struggles, suggests they'll take their time with Crawford in 2017.
3B: Franco (25 in August). It was the best of seasons, it was the worst of seasons. Franco showed so much promise as a hitter in half a season in 2015, then el floppo in 2016 (90 RC+ which is unacceptable at 3B). His second half was awful, (.619 OPS) though he bounced back in September. The weird thing is his K rate actually declined in the 2nd half, to 15%, which is very good for a power hitter. But his ISO dropped from .222 to .117. So what was the problem? Watching him, it comes down to trying to hit the ball too hard and overswinging, so he made contact, but it was weak contact too often. I don't think it'll be that hard to correct, be more patient, tighten up the swing, keep his weight and hands back and not try to pull everything. His fielding is now average, and he has the hands and arm to be above average down the road. Unless they want to try Crawford at 3B, there are few options - and moving him to 1B is not one of them.
LF/RF - the wasteland, Goeddel, Asche, Parades, Bourjas, none will be in Philly in 2017. Altherr will get a shot with a healthy wrist. FA target.
CF - Herrera (25) - It was an up and down season, overall he improved, BB rate up substantailly, K rate down, ISO up, BA down but mostly due to a decline in BABIP from .387 to a more sustainable .350. So given his age, overall a solid stage in his development. His fielding fell off, but mostly because of a mid-season slump, he's still above average given it was only his second season at the position. While an awful July brought his numbers down, there were some disturbing trends in the second half, first half BB/K 11.6/18.3, second half 6.7/23.3. His start wasn't sustainable as pitchers pounded him with inside strikes once they learned he wasn't going to swing wildly, and Odubel struggled to adjust. This brought his OPS down to .758, mostly due to a drop in OBP without any compensating increase in power. Still a good player, but one who projects to around 3 WAR going forward unless there's a big jump in his defense. So the question in 2017 is whether he can either raise his OBP by being more disciplined or hit with more power.
PITCHERS
Nola (24 in June) - career stats - 33s 188.2 IP 3.53 FIP, 3.7 WAR. A solid #2 in today's game. However, before the elbow started to go, he was a #1 pitcher by any measure. His first 72 IP, 13 BB/76K. 200 BA, 2.89 FIP. If he's healthy, he's the ace. But the elbow is a big question mark
Velasquez (25 in June), great stuff, explosive fastball, but his inexperience really showed. On a deeper team he'd pitched in AAA all year. He's got all the pitches, 4 seam, 2 seam, curve, change, slider, but only the fastballs are above average right now. The changeup is his worst pitch right now, thrown too hard (87) without deception, but it's also the pitch that will make him a #1 starter if he masters it - because a good changeup would make his FB impossible to hit. He's a work in progress, and they'll probably limit him to 160 IP or so next year, but long-term the sky is the limit.
Eickhoff (27) - destined to be the "old man" of this pitching staff, the most durable and consistent right now. He's got a decent FB, 90-92, t95, for both his 2 and 4 seamers. The 4 seamer is an average to fringe above average pitch, the 2 seamer gets beat like a drum. Great curve, slider is hit and miss (literally), and the changeup is a work in progress with a lot more work required. Right now he's an innings eater, but improving the two seamer by getting more movement, developing the change and more consistency with the slider could make him a solid #2 starter.
Morgan (27) - hopefully, Pete didn't blow out his shoulder in that last start. Struggled to start the season, went down to Lehigh and developed a two seamer, came back and was a much better pitcher until his last start. He added two MPH to his FB over 2015, sign that his shoulder is close to 100%, but his slider and change weren't as effective despite the increase in velocity. Morgan is the only potential LH SP in 2017, which will give him an edge in ST, but he's at the cusp in his career, he's shown signs of being effective, but now has to put it together.
Eflin (23) - he was lights out at Lehigh, got bombed in his first start, settled down until the knees got to him and he was pounded his last three starts.
7 starts 48.2 IP 36 13 11 3 5 24 2.03 including 2 complete games.
So who is the real Eflin, the wonderkid of Lehigh and those 7 starts, or the one that got bombed in 4 starts?
4 seamer 92.7, t96, 2 seamer 91.7, t95. Slider and change were very effective, though he didn't throw the change enough.
I suspect with two healthy knees and some mechanical tweaking, the Eflin of that 7 game stretch might be the norm.
Thompson (23) - despite a gaudy ERA, a FIP of 3.82 at Lehigh suggests he wasn't as effective as advertised there. And he struggled in the Show, but keep in mind, 2015, 22 starts, 113 IP, 2016, 31 starts, 183 IP, a big jump for a young pitcher.
4 seamer 91, but must have deception because it was hard to hit, 2 seamer about the same but hit much harder, slider, changeup, curve, only the curve was effective, but small samples. Watching him, command is his biggest issue right now, his velocity will probably tick up a tad as he grows up and gets used to a heavier workload, but he has to be more consistent, keep the two seamer down and avoid letting it drift over the center of the plate and tighten his secondary pitches. Right now a 5th pitcher who may start in the bullpen or Lehigh but will end the year in the rotation.
Alec Asher (25) - bombed in 7 starts last year, smooth in 5 starts this year. The suspension makes it hard to figure him out.
Last year 4 seamer 91.6, this year 89.0.
Last year 2 seamer 90.6, this year 89.3. Pounded last year, unhittable this year.
Dumped his slider, went with the curve and changeup, curve has been an out pitch though the change has gotten hit. Watching him he seems to have developed a knack for weak contact.
I think he's a work in progress, the two seamer will probably add velocity as he gets comfortable with it as his main pitcher, the curve is a solid second pitch, but he won't make it unless the change becomes a plus pitch - he's been getting hit the second time through lineups as they time his two seamer. So the change, and changing speeds on his fastballs, will be the key to his success going forward.
Hellickson (30) - he was better this year, but not that much better, that is, a solid FIP that's lower than any year of his career (ranged between 4.22 and 4.60 in his full seasons), but not spectacular at 3.97.
There was no uptick in velocity, as both his 2 and 4 seamers were at 90.0, and neither is an out pitch.
The changeup was always a good pitch for him but he took it up a notch, the best he's thrown it since 2011. Same with the curve, which has also been a steady part of his repertoire.
There really was nothing special about 2016, it was a lot like his 2011 season, except his FIP was much lower, despite a 0.9 drop in velocity, probably because he's a more experienced pitcher.
However, this suggests "regression to the mean" and he'll probably be a 4.2 to 4.4 FIP pitcher going forward the next few years. So expect 1-2 WAR instead of the 3.2 WAR he posted this season. Anything more than 3yr/$40M is an overpay, let someone else do it.
Gomez (29) - he is what he is, and the poster child for why saves are close to meaningless. While he got overused at the end of the season, his 2016 season was similar to his 2013-2014 seasons with the Pirates, last year's performance may be the anomaly.
His sinker has upticked in velocity the last two years from 90 to 91 MPH and is more effective.
His changeup was an out pitch, but it went south this year - one potential factor for a bounceback.
His slider was much better this season after three inconsistent years.
So he could potentially bounce back if he can master both the change and slider in the same season. The sinker is what it is, a decent pitch that sets up his secondary pitches.
Neris (28 in June) - he lives and dies with his splitter, if it's on, he's a legitimate closer.
His 4 seamer, 94 MPH is an out pitch, his two seamer thrown at the same velocity should be as well, if he can command it better it would make it harder to sit on a good, but not great FB.
But the splitter is everything, threw it 50% of the time with a .149 BA against it.
Got stronger as the season progressed until September, when the workload caught up to him
Ramos (24) - two pitch reliever
FB was at 95 but got hit too much, may need a two seamer or some other adjustment
Slider was an out pitch, BA .158.
Changeup was effective when used, and he may need to use it more to set up the FB.
Gonzalez (24) - still finding himself, but big uptick in velocity out of the pen
FB jumped from 89.2 last year to 93.5 this year, but it wasn't that much more effective.
Big change was his curve, which is becoming his best pitch
His change is still below par.
He's also been developing a sinker, which has become a decent pitch, and dropped the cutter
He could be the long reliever spot start as he continues to refine his pitches, with a legitimate FB and four pitches, he's still a development project but one with more upside.
Luis Garcia (30), assuming they don't resign Hernandez, Garcia will probably take his spot
He was effective in 2015, but lack of command and control limits his upside, but he has the right stuff.
He actually threw a little harder this year, 96+, but his FB is hittable because he leaves it over the plate.
The slider is the out pitch.
Rodriguez (25), 95 MPH FB, killer slider, look for him to start at Lehigh and work on his mechanics, similar to Diekman, only thing holding him back is sporadic control.
Murray, Mariot are fringe relievers whom they'll try to replace.
