Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[zambonir]

It is still a bit of a factor though. If you sign Ranger to a four-year $100 million deal, or a six-seven year deal at lower AAV you might have to let Luzardo go at free agency, and not give out another deal like that until Wheeler is off the books. If Luzardo would take an extension now he would be the cheaper and younger option

And if you could have another Ranger or Sanchez in your rotation by then (besides Painter) that is money you could spend on a bat.

[EDmuch]

I saw an article, unfortunatey I cannot relocate it, suggesting the Phils trade Castellanos to the
Red Sox (Phils retain $12 million) for three of their upper prospects (not any of their golden child prospects) one young OF and 2 young relief candidates who throw in upper 90's. This would be an almost perfect move if it could be pulled off.

[andyb]

Not really buying that scenario. Seems like too much of a prospect haul for a DH from a team that could spend a modest amount on something just as good as Castellanos.

Red Sox's perfect trade offer for Phillies' Nick Castellanos

[zambonir]

That just sounds like nonsense. Much like some Facebook post I saw that suggested we could resign Kyle for like four years $90 and trade for Harry Ford while also re-signing JT for one-year 12.5.

Phillies are gonna have to pay $15 million of Nick just to get one or two nothing prospects in return. The whole league knows he can't stay and will do everything they can to get him for nothing (I.e. DFA).

[bigegypt0417]

Castellanos is long past his time in the field. I don't think Boston gives up 3 decent prospects for him but he certainly has value to teams looking for a DH and only a DH.

The Red Sox certainly need one and I'm not sure a 20 million dollar contract is that scary anymore.

[mdougherty12]

Do the Red Sox really need a DH? They have more good outfielders than they can play at one time. Just rotate those guys through the DH spot.

[Austinfan]

Castellanos still has value as a RH platoon DH, maybe 1 WAR or so, plus he can play OF in a pinch.
That might be worth 1-2 second tier prospects if the Phillies eat $10M.
I'd be looking for RP arms to add depth to the system.

[EDmuch]

I would do that trade for Garcia and Monegro, heck just for Garcia. Nick would fit in for Boston as a DH with power. Might even seen an uptake in his performance in a new setting. So I could see Boston as one of the potential new homes for him.

[andyb]

I don't think we'll get much for Casty (maybe one prospect in someone's top 20). Plus we pick up $15 million or more.

I would not be shocked if they tried to find a match in Miami so he could play at home. Just don't think contenders like the Red Sox would be interested because they usually can afford better.

[zambonir]

Miami or another middling team. If he bounces back or just takes the role, they can flip him.

The fantasy would be that the Cubs or Cincinnait want him back but I don't think they'd be giving up anything of note either.

In theory Taijuan Walker is more valuable.

[BostonRoss]

The Red Sox have four young major league outfielders (plus Password Garcia), none of whom made more than $5M in 2025. Why would they need a declining DH whose OBP and SLG were lower than all four of them, even if the Phillies picked up $15M of his salary?

[DurhamBull]

The Red Sox have four young major league outfielders (plus Password Garcia), none of whom made more than $5M in 2025. Why would they need a declining DH whose OBP and SLG were lower than all four of them, even if the Phillies picked up $15M of his salary?

Shush! You're right, of course -- nobody needs a DH with a .700 OPS. But we're hoping they don't realize that yet!

[zambonir]

What if they picked up... $25 million of his salary? Wait, what about Nick Castellanos + Griff McGarry for a couple of prospects?

I think there's a deal to be made, but think more like what the Phillies got for Chase Utley or Michael Young in a waiver deal. All of the value for the Phillies is in shaving a few million off their tax number, not to get talent back.

[andyb]

The second Japanese corner infielder gets posted::

Japanese slugger Kazuma Okamoto to be posted for MLB teams by Yomiuri Giants

[zambonir]

MLB (non-Phillies) 2025-26 Hot Stove

Bowden's trade candidates. Phillies are mentioned with Duran (Red Sox OF). Of course I look at 9 and 10 together and wonder if Bohm for Jo Adell is actually a match that might help both teams. Bohm's best match is the Angels and we do need a RH power bat.

It also occurs to me that if they trade Bohm there are several other possibilities in between Bregman (the top of the market), Bichette, and a Kemp/LHB platoon. Eugenio Suarez, for one. And Arenado will probably get traded finally, but is pretty much just Edmundo Sosa now.

Reading that Bowden story that is mostly full of SP makes me wonder if we will see Dombrowski surprise us there like he did with Luzardo - get one of the cheaper more controllable pitchers Bowden mentions (I.e. anyone but Skubal and Peralta, though both of them are cheap for one year of course.

[Philsmania]

MLB (non-Phillies) 2025-26 Hot Stove

Bowden's trade candidates. Phillies are mentioned with Duran (Red Sox OF). Of course I look at 9 and 10 together and wonder if Bohm for Jo Adell is actually a match that might help both teams. Bohm's best match is the Angels and we do need a RH power bat.

It also occurs to me that if they trade Bohm there are several other possibilities in between Bregman (the top of the market), Bichette, and a Kemp/LHB platoon. Eugenio Suarez, for one. And Arenado will probably get traded finally, but is pretty much just Edmundo Sosa now.

Reading that Bowden story that is mostly full of SP makes me wonder if we will see Dombrowski surprise us there like he did with Luzardo - get one of the cheaper more controllable pitchers Bowden mentions (I.e. anyone but Skubal and Peralta, though both of them are cheap for one year of course.

We would then have a Jh. Duran and a Ja. Duran. Would their backs of the jerseys say "JH DURAN" and "JA DURAN"? Memories of K.Gross and G.Gross. and V.Hayes and C.Hayes and Harry saying "The Hayeses at second and third, Von and Charlie, no relation."

[andyb]

Or

https://duranduran.com/

[andyb]

Not sure if these were posted but here are the MLBTR arbitration estimates. Obviously the catcher decision will probably be one of them along with JT or another veteran:

Jesus Luzardo (5.165): $10.4MM
Edmundo Sosa (5.140): $3.9MM
Alec Bohm (5.106): $10.3MM
Garrett Stubbs (4.148): $925K
Brandon Marsh (4.078): $4.5MM
Jhoan Duran (4.000): $7.6MM
Bryson Stott (4.000): $5.8MM
Tanner Banks (3.092): $1.2MM
Rafael Marchan (3.006): $1MM
Non-tender candidates: Bohm, Stubbs, Marchan

Preview here (though most behind paywall): I don't think Bohm is really a non-tender candidate. More whether he is a trade candidate. Marchan at $1M probably gets the nod over Stubbs at $925K.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

[zambonir]

It's actually the very first post of this thread. But nobody really wanted to talk about it then.

[zambonir]

MLB (non-Phillies) 2025-26 Hot Stove

Among Schwarber, Realmuto, and Suarez - who would you bet to worth more WAR in the 2028 season? To me the answer is an obvious Suarez and he is the least likely player that we will resign among the three. Presents a conundrum....

Very true but he's still the most easily replaced. Ideally just by Painter, whereas we have nobody even to wish on as a starting catcher or middle-of-the-order bat in 2028. And I think Kyle will still be productive by then. JT's 2028 would be more in the sunk cost/back-up realm.

Ranger, with his injuries, is still more likely to be a 2.5 WAR player, which I think Schwarbs will be as well. It's kind of surprising Ranger put up as much as he did (4.7) this year (2022, 2023, 2024, he was between 2.3 and 2.7).