Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

zambonir 2025-10-21 22:36:52 UTC #157

Miami or another middling team. If he bounces back or just takes the role, they can flip him.

The fantasy would be that the Cubs or Cincinnait want him back but I don't think they'd be giving up anything of note either.

In theory Taijuan Walker is more valuable.

BostonRoss 2025-10-22 02:24:40 UTC #159

The Red Sox have four young major league outfielders (plus Password Garcia), none of whom made more than $5M in 2025. Why would they need a declining DH whose OBP and SLG were lower than all four of them, even if the Phillies picked up $15M of his salary?

DurhamBull 2025-10-22 03:33:30 UTC #160

Shush! You're right, of course -- nobody needs a DH with a .700 OPS. But we're hoping they don't realize that yet!

zambonir 2025-10-22 05:37:24 UTC #161

What if they picked up... $25 million of his salary? Wait, what about Nick Castellanos + Griff McGarry for a couple of prospects?

I think there's a deal to be made, but think more like what the Phillies got for Chase Utley or Michael Young in a waiver deal. All of the value for the Phillies is in shaving a few million off their tax number, not to get talent back.

andyb 2025-10-22 18:37:19 UTC #162

The second Japanese corner infielder gets posted::

zambonir 2025-10-23 18:50:14 UTC #163

It also occurs to me that if they trade Bohm there are several other possibilities in between Bregman (the top of the market), Bichette, and a Kemp/LHB platoon. Eugenio Suarez, for one. And Arenado will probably get traded finally, but is pretty much just Edmundo Sosa now.

Reading that Bowden story that is mostly full of SP makes me wonder if we will see Dombrowski surprise us there like he did with Luzardo - get one of the cheaper more controllable pitchers Bowden mentions (I.e. anyone but Skubal and Peralta, though both of them are cheap for one year of course.

Philsmania 2025-10-23 21:53:10 UTC #164

zambonir:

MLB (non-Phillies) 2025-26 Hot Stove

Bowden's trade candidates. Phillies are mentioned with Duran (Red Sox OF). Of course I look at 9 and 10 together and wonder if Bohm for Jo Adell is actually a match that might help both teams. Bohm's best match is the Angels and we do need a RH power bat.
It also occurs to me that if they trade Bohm there are several other possibilities in between Bregman (the top of the market), Bichette, and a Kemp/LHB platoon. Eugenio Suarez, for one. And Arenado will probably get traded finally, but is pretty much just Edmundo Sosa now.

Reading that Bowden story that is mostly full of SP makes me wonder if we will see Dombrowski surprise us there like he did with Luzardo - get one of the cheaper more controllable pitchers Bowden mentions (I.e. anyone but Skubal and Peralta, though both of them are cheap for one year of course.

We would then have a Jh. Duran and a Ja. Duran. Would their backs of the jerseys say "JH DURAN" and "JA DURAN"? Memories of K.Gross and G.Gross. and V.Hayes and C.Hayes and Harry saying "The Hayeses at second and third, Von and Charlie, no relation."

andyb 2025-10-23 21:58:33 UTC #165

https://duranduran.com/

andyb 2025-10-24 19:07:29 UTC #166

Not sure if these were posted but here are the MLBTR arbitration estimates. Obviously the catcher decision will probably be one of them along with JT or another veteran:

Jesus Luzardo (5.165): $10.4MM
Edmundo Sosa (5.140): $3.9MM
Alec Bohm (5.106): $10.3MM
Garrett Stubbs (4.148): $925K
Brandon Marsh (4.078): $4.5MM
Jhoan Duran (4.000): $7.6MM
Bryson Stott (4.000): $5.8MM
Tanner Banks (3.092): $1.2MM
Rafael Marchan (3.006): $1MM
Non-tender candidates: Bohm, Stubbs, Marchan

Preview here (though most behind paywall): I don't think Bohm is really a non-tender candidate. More whether he is a trade candidate. Marchan at $1M probably gets the nod over Stubbs at $925K.

zambonir 2025-10-24 21:02:52 UTC #167

It's actually the very first post of this thread. But nobody really wanted to talk about it then.

zambonir 2025-10-27 23:39:23 UTC #168

Very true but he's still the most easily replaced. Ideally just by Painter, whereas we have nobody even to wish on as a starting catcher or middle-of-the-order bat in 2028. And I think Kyle will still be productive by then. JT's 2028 would be more in the sunk cost/back-up realm.

Ranger, with his injuries, is still more likely to be a 2.5 WAR player, which I think Schwarbs will be as well. It's kind of surprising Ranger put up as much as he did (4.7) this year (2022, 2023, 2024, he was between 2.3 and 2.7).

tom81 2025-10-28 11:08:50 UTC #169

You left off Ranger's best year, 5.6 WAR in 2021. Even with all the injuries his 5-year average WAR is 3.5 compared to Schwarber's 3.3 and Realmuto's 3.4.

zambonir 2025-10-28 16:00:24 UTC #170

Yeah not on purpose I just figured that was too long ago. Plus, he was a reliever for half of that season (with even more eye-popping numbers in that role). Either way I don't think what he did at 25 projects, any more than what Nola did at 25 projected. Nola also had his best season since then at 29, and nothing close to that for three years since.

Ranger should still get paid, just as Nola did. But I still bet Schwarber is worth more WAR in 2028.

andyb 2025-10-28 16:06:24 UTC #171

Do we really think a 35-year-old Schwarber is a good bet to be worth more than 2 or 2.5 WAR? Remember his baserunning is likely to become a bigger negative by then and he might not be able to do the occasional LF turn like he did this year (which is a team negative).

Just playing devil's advocate here, but the Dodgers are showing you can have a team with 7 or 8 starters and still need them all. And we can't just replace him with Painter because Luzardo is here for only one more year and Wheeler for 2. And Wheeler might miss a chunk of 2026 anyway.

Philsmania 2025-10-28 16:09:43 UTC #172

Of course, I grew up with '80's music!

If only Randy Wolf could still pitch!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJL-lCzEXgI

zambonir 2025-10-28 16:21:57 UTC #173

Well, it's a fair question. But Freeman was worth 3.5 at 36. JT Martinez, a less favorable comparison (2.0 WAR at 35 despite an .893 OPS).

I just think where the Phillies are in their window and where the market is they just need the bat and the catcher more. The RH power bat is still extremely elusive and to replace Schwarber would still be costly. The Dodgers are showing you can never have too much starting pitching but that's also combined with having the line-up they do.

I'm all for bringing all three free agents back if they have the financial mettle for it. Offloading $5 million of Nick and $9 million of Taijuan (that's probably high) would help. Otherwise let Ranger go, try to extend Luzardo, and sign a depth starter or a mid-level FA on a shorter deal. Bowden suggests Bieber will get $75M/three years, with play opt-outs.

Or wait for the deadline, they are probably still a playoff team - maybe even NL East champs again - with Painter and Walker as 5/6. Though that depends a lot on Wheeler and Nola too. The amount of info they have on Wheeler once FA starts for real will probably be important.

zambonir 2025-10-28 16:25:18 UTC #174

andyb 2025-10-28 16:27:28 UTC #175

Freeman was worth 4.2 WAR in his age 28-31 seasons while Schwarber is worth 2.8. Yes Freeman got better with LA (better lineup protection) but are you really assuming any player will do better in their age 32-35 seasons than in their 28-31 seasons?

A cherry-picked comparison does not make it a good comparison and then we have the reality of one player having defensive value (which lends towards longevity) and one player not having that value. Freeman starts from a higher base and then is a rare outlier.

Most similar players through age 31:

Dave Kingman (927.1)
Chris Davis (914.4)
Mark McGwire (903.3)
Mark Reynolds (901.8)
Greg Vaughn (894.0)
Roger Maris (890.8)
Bob Allison (888.0)
Cecil Fielder (880.6)
Jay Buhner (880.6)
Nick Swisher (874.8)

zambonir 2025-10-28 17:00:13 UTC #176

Oh, I concede one is betting that Schwarber is extraordinary but one is also betting Ranger is extraordinary (if not in terms of defying the age curve than in terms of suddenly becoming the picture of health and consistency). I just don't see many alternatives to Schwarber (besides Alonso), especially this year. Many more alternatives to Ranger, this year and next.

The Braves were very good at finding alternatives - Matt Olson instead of Freeman, Murphy for Contreras and to ultimately replace D'Arnaud. But does our front office have that kind of savvy (and tradeable assets)? Whether to replace any of our FAs or to get a RHB somewhere.

And then ironically seeming to get younger/better didn't get the Braves any other playoff success.

andyb 2025-10-28 18:23:50 UTC #177

It is not necessarily betting on any free agent to be extraordinary. One can easily make the case based on projections that Suarez would be better. And one can also easily make the case that starting pitching would likely be a need (Wheeler and Luzardo could be gone, Nola could be ineffective, Painter may not be a star). Remember that Schwarber takes up the DH position which will hurt players like Harper in the future. Instead of imagining an offense without (an older, less effective) Schwarber, how about imagining an offense with better defensive players than the current offense. Schwarber limits that vision.

There are alternatives if one backs away from linear thinking that we just have to have Schwarber in our lineup and there are no other ways to use our resources to make the team better.