It's both too long and too high. But every pitcher is a health risk no matter the term or their age. I wouldn't feel that much better about signing Ranger to a three-year deal if it was $30 AAV.
I don't think Bowden is a great source for these kind of predictions (versus MLBTR) anyway, even if he claims to be talking to GMs and agents. But pitching is scarce, and he has Valdez, Ranger and Cease all getting six-year deals. Imai, seven. Gallen, five. The next few after that all predicted at $75M/three years.