Interesting and informative piece from Jim Peyton. A few notes:
Jim mentioned Matt Harrison, and that got me thinking. Harrison's on a guaranteed contract for 2017, but he'll presumably spend the entire season on the 60-day DL again. Harrison is owed $15 million going forward (2017 plus buyout of 2018). As it stands, the Phillies are recovering a portion of Harrison's annual salary from insurance, as long as they keep him on the roster and he's certified as medically unable to pitch. I think the Phils should just release him, to free up the roster spot. Harrison gets paid regardless - the contract's guaranteed - so this release would cost the Phillies whatever portion of that $15 million they would otherwise recover from insurance. But it's just money - and arguably, this winter they need the roster spot more than they need to not spend that money.
Jim lists Peter Bourjos and Andres Blanco as arbitration eligible, but correctly calculates their service time as of this winter as 6.062 and 6.007 years, respectively. That service time makes them free agents, not arbitration candidates. If they want to re-sign either of them, they can defer that until after the Rule 5 draft. (That's not without its own potential roster issues; to re-sign one of them, they'd need to have a roster spot, unless they signed the player to a minor-league contract. Not clear either of them would go for that, since he might be able to find a major-league spot with another organization.)
Jim lists Frank Herrmann as a free agent, not an arbitration-eligible. Not sure why; Herrmann's service time opening this season was 2.147 years. If he stays on the roster, he'll be arbitration-eligible (he's on track to add 47 days service time this season).
Minor errors:
1) Jim lists Alexis Rivero as Rule 5 eligible. Rivero was born 10/18/94 (from BR), signed 11/7/12 (from BA), at age 18. For purposes of Rule 5, he's considered to have signed after the 2012 Rule 5 draft (because he signed after the season ended). Since he was 18 when signed, he's not eligible until the fifth draft after he signed - which is December 2017, not 2016.
2) Jose Taveras also isn't eligible. Signed 11/10/13 (from BA), at age 20. But again, since he signed after the season ended, he's considered to have signed after the 2013 draft - makes him eligible 2017, not 2016.
3) Reiwal Gonzalez - Same as above. Signed 11/7/12 (from milb.com), age 18. So he's eligible 2017, not 2016.
The relevant rule for the above is 5(c)(1)(C).