The New New Unending Flyers thread

[LegoDoom]

Gotta love the AF logic. Frost was only good when playing with a career high 53 point Owen Tippett, but Marner, who had 102 points this year, isn't worth anything because of who he was playing with. With that logic, wouldn't Tippett be a not very good player?

[bigegypt0417]

AF lives in a world where you spend no money and develop through a draft.

I mean...it's living in the moneyball era when the moneyball era never won a ring.

He can't decide if marner is a luxury on a team that isn't talented enough or doesn't make them better because he's only talented because he played with other talented players?

he's swerving between lanes.

[Docs]

I’d rather target knies but agree with everyone saying if Marner was willing to come here it would absolutely make the team better.

[Austinfan]

It won't make sense to pursue major FAs until they're competitive and have built up their talent pipeline.
At that point, when you're a playoff team (top 16) but not good enough to get past the 1st rd or so, you look at major FA signings and packaging players, prospects and picks to add a key player or two.

But big FAs tend to have the most value the first 3-4 years of their new contract, so you want to add them when your window of SC contention is open, not 2-3 years before then.

[zambonir]

Well, waiting for the internal talent to develop definitely worked for the 2015-2017 Phillies.

They are going to be open to everything. They do want to try and make the playoffs this season, and yes, they want that playoff team to then be appealing to the next group of FAs, including McDavid.

[zambonir]

Hmmh (meaning, is he coming back to the NHL coaching staff? Or something else)

Reports: Ian Laperrière out as Lehigh Valley coach; Brad Shaw to join Devils

[Austinfan]

The Phillies can spend their way into contention, Flyers did the same before the hard Cap.

With a hard cap, a mistake can constrain you for 7 years on a major FA deal, so you have to be more cautious about throwing money around, and where Roseman can use rolling cap money forward to buy flexibility, Briere must stay under the cap each season.

So building your internal asset base is vital for a long run, because you're not going to be able to buy your way into contention, and before you start trading future draft picks, you'd better stockpile a bunch of young talent AND have scouts that can find hidden gems later in the draft.

[Austinfan]

This may be the Tocchett effect, for some reason the Flyers haven't integrated the Phantoms with the NHL team, that is, have both teams run the same system and have the Phantom coaches be well versed with what the Flyer coaches want to do in terms of both scheme and player development.

So if these means Tochett will not only hire his assistants, but will also be involved with the Phantoms, great.
Much like the Phillies, time to get the entire organization on the same page.

[LegoDoom]

Well, waiting for the internal talent to develop definitely worked for the 2015-2017 Phillies.

They are going to be open to everything. They do want to try and make the playoffs this season, and yes, they want that playoff team to then be appealing to the next group of FAs, including McDavid.

It can also work out for the Flyers. They already were gifted Michkov, still have TK, and Couts (when remotely healthy), and even Tippett.

They have a ton of picks... might as well try to do something.

AF likes to throw around a lot of prospects that won't move the needle without better talent and I have no idea why.

BTW... Marner was a #4 pick and has never fallen below the 60 point mark... including his first season at 19 years old.

[zambonir]

It didn't actually work out for the Phillies, that was sarcasm directed at AF. He never would have argued for signing Harper or trading for JT back then when the team already had Nick Williams and Jorge Alfaro. Flyers are in much better shape, but yes, it can't just be all prospects and they still don't have much on the high end prospect-wise besides Michkov.

[zambonir]

I can't believe I turned off the hockey for the Phillies with Edmonton up 3-1 and then forgot to go back to it, let alone get a second screen.

[LegoDoom]

I can't believe I turned off the hockey for the Phillies with Edmonton up 3-1 and then forgot to go back to it, let alone get a second screen.

The Miro goal still sticks the dagger in... yes I know we've been through this and it wasn't a bad pick.

Ghosts game yesterday was interesting. Carolina's ECF streak is impressive..

[Austinfan]

McDavid isn't coming here. That's a lovely pipe dream.
Though if he expressed interest, I'd just give him a blank check and tell him to fill it in.

The last three seasons, TK had 40 ES points in 60 games, 52 and 56.
Marner, 58, 57 (69g), 67.
Marner is the better RW, but is also playing with much better talent.
TK will make $8.75M, Marner probably $13M.

My priorities the next couple years would be a center (even if they draft one, Jett and that center won't be carrying the load until 2027 or 2028) and a puck moving D-man who's an upgrade over York and Andrae at LHD.

They need a goalie, but I'm wary of giving big contracts or lots of assets - goalies are too much like RPs, outside of a handful, they're mostly season to season. They have Ersson, Bjarnason at LHV next season, and Zavragin will come over in 2027. I expect Briere to pick up a veteran to pair with Ersson and draft another goalie this summer.

With all that firepower, what killed Edmonton tonight (and a problem through the POs) was an abysmal penalty kill.
I contend that the PP and PK are mirror images, but a mediocre PP forward can pick up 15 points as a "free rider" and look like a scoring threat while a good PK guy is hardly noticeable. A cheap way to improve a team is to improve the bottom six forwards and add D-men who are good PK defenders b/c no one pays for that skill.

[LegoDoom]

I hate to shatter your world, but Tippett is the 3rd best RW on the team right now.

[jimbomill]

Marner is playing on a line with Matthews and Knies, we don't have equivalent players to match with him.
And we're talking 7x13M or so, which is a lot of cap room with a hard cap.

Because of the items you note, I hope someone else makes Marner an offer he cannot refuse.

[jimbomill]

isn't worth anything because of who he was playing with

To be fair, AF wrote not worth 7 X $13M.

[andyb]

Salary cap is going from $88 million this year to $113.5 million in 2027-28. So today's $10 million deal is really tomorrow's $13 million deal (and over a 7-year contract the cap will increase even more). $13 million would be a fair price for Marner and the Flyers really should be integrating lots of young draft picks over the next 7 years so that type of deal would be justified. Of course Marner would have to want to come to Philly which is a different question.

[phillychuck]

By the eye test Marner doesn’t look like a first line player to me, even playing with other good players. Of course, the eye test, especially my eye test, can be wrong. What are his playing strengths and weaknesses according to scouts or more knowledgable fans, and what do advanced statistics say about him?

[bigegypt0417]

My priorities the next couple years would be a center (even if they draft one, Jett and that center won't be carrying the load until 2027 or 2028) and a puck moving D-man who's an upgrade over York and Andrae at LHD.

They need a goalie, but I'm wary of giving big contracts or lots of assets - goalies are too much like RPs, outside of a handful, they're mostly season to season. They have Ersson, Bjarnason at LHV next season, and Zavragin will come over in 2027. I expect Briere to pick up a veteran to pair with Ersson and draft another goalie this summer.

It always feels so weird that your moves are always cheap and seem like tinkering with a line-up that lacks talent. The Flyers need talent...at every position and every line...no...they won't fill those needs by only drafting players.

Moneyball is dead.

[zambonir]

I don't think AF is totallly wrong. To put it in Phillies terms again, this is like the year they signed Santana and a few veteran relievers. Next year is when they go after a Harper. But if a guy (i.e. Arrieta) turns out to be available in favorable terms you get him.

I just don't think they are going to outbid anyone for the biggest FAs this year. But until we see what they do at the draft, who knows? They're still going to spend some money and assets to bring in talent and nobody who's not yet in the NHL (and some who are) will be untouchable either.

Both of the articles that have been shared - the one saying the Flyers should trade for Rossi andd the one saying they should sign Marner - have suggested Tippett would be traded in either scenario.

The argument made about Marner is also that he would be more comfortable playing in Philadelphia than with the scrutiny and expectations of Toronto. That might be true for a season or two, but not forever.