Wennberg, who is a similar center, just got 3x6. That set the market. FA is 1 yr/$1M overpay, so 4x7 or 5x6 is a reasonable expectation of Dvorak's free agent market.
The cap will rapidly escalate for the next 3-4 years (partially a rebound from owners recouping their COVID losses).
This has had a number of interrelated impacts:
1) teams now sign the players they want to keep since they have cap room
2) free agent pickings are slim and will be overpriced
3) cap constraints will apply to a limited number of teams, and you can't roll over cap money unlike the NFL
Flyers have $40M in cap room next season AFTER signing Dvorak, they have two RFAs, Zegras and Drysdale.
Flyers have $60M in cap room in 2027, minus what they pay Zegras and Drysdale, RFAs, Michkov, Foerster. Vladar will be UFA, but Zavragin comes over and Kolosov and Bjarnason are playing well in LHV.
And Briere may move out Seeler, Risto, and Hathaway this summer to make room for Martone, Bump, Jett, Bonk, Murchison/McDonald on the roster. That frees up another $5-7M in 2026.
So this is like asking Middleton to overpay Sosa, but with no penalties. Just his money.
Fans are stuck in the flat cap mindset, where a bad contract could squeeze a team for years.
As far as trade protections, a partial NTC means the player can submit a list of teams he doesn't want to go to each season, Sanheim (12, starts in 2027), Couts (10, starts in 2029), Tiippett (10).
Dvorak's partial NTC starts in 2028.
Since Flyers are high tax region, and players tend to list bad teams and places they don't want to live, these clauses have little impact on the ability to trade players (bad teams don't trade for over 30 players).
Worst outcome is Dvorak falls off a cliff in a couple years and Briere makes a Hayes deal, retain 50%, get a 6th rd pick.
With the cap rising, retaining $2.5M for three years will be pocket change.
