At the end of the day, I guess I just don't quite believe that one can "project" Moniak at this point with all that much reliability. I'm just more comfortable with uncertainty than most people, I guess.
My objective in this discussion was not to defend Mickey Moniak, or the pick. It was, rather, to try to inject some objectivity about what we should "expect" from any high draft pick.
There's a significant failure rate even with the 1:1 pick - 10 of 41 players acheived zero bWAR (or worse, negative bWAR) - and presumably an increasing failure rate as we move down the list from 1:1. If one out of four 1:1 picks is a complete bust, we have to expect that some of the Phillies' first-round picks will be complete busts. (We don't have to like it!)
Do I have to note that, a couple of months ago, people here were bemoaning the fact that our four most recent first-round picks were all apparently "failures"? Two of the four (Haseley and Bohm) have pretty much put that to rest, and Moniak over the past two months may be doing the same. Randolph still looks like a miss. But if those four picks yield one bust, one "average" player, one better than average, and one star, that would be completely consistent with the historical record, would it not?