Rule 5 Draft Considerations - Winter Roster Additions

[Slinging_Southpaw]

I just don't get it with all the Ruf love here.

I agree.

Under no circumstances would I keep a player on the roster who is out of options, and who almost certainly will have to be outrighted at some point next season. Keeping Ruf on the roster this winter would signal the expectation that he will stick on the 25-man roster for all of 2017 - and based on his history, that's absurd. When they ask outright waivers on him, whether this winter or sometime in 2017, he may be claimed; if not claimed, he will have the right to opt for minor-league free agency at that point.

Darin Ruf is leaving - whether next month, or next spring, or next summer, is dependent on whether the Phils keep him on the winter roster. Given that he IS leaving, the only rational thing to do, IMHO, is waive him this winter, and be done with it.

You'll still need to fill his roster spot. When you do then DFA, but right now who is your back up First Baseman? It's easy to say we'll fill that role, but until you do, what's the point?

[Austinfan]

There wasn't much quality in free agency last year and there won't be this year, or probably future years.
Teams tend to sign the guys they want to keep, only a few quality guys hit FA and get grossly overpaid for the most part.

The best value are the 2nd/3rd tier guys that have solid track records coming off an off season but not old enough to write off or with serious physical issues (big drop in velocity or bat velocity). In effect, you bet on regression to the norm, not sustained exceptional performance (don't overpay for a guy's peak year).

[julio]

I just don't get it with all the Ruf love here.

I agree.

Under no circumstances would I keep a player on the roster who is out of options, and who almost certainly will have to be outrighted at some point next season. Keeping Ruf on the roster this winter would signal the expectation that he will stick on the 25-man roster for all of 2017 - and based on his history, that's absurd. When they ask outright waivers on him, whether this winter or sometime in 2017, he may be claimed; if not claimed, he will have the right to opt for minor-league free agency at that point.

Darin Ruf is leaving - whether next month, or next spring, or next summer, is dependent on whether the Phils keep him on the winter roster. Given that he IS leaving, the only rational thing to do, IMHO, is waive him this winter, and be done with it.

You'll still need to fill his roster spot. When you do then DFA, but right now who is your back up First Baseman? It's easy to say we'll fill that role, but until you do, what's the point?

"Backup first baseman" is not something I would worry about. Cody Asche. A reserve IF or OF. We haven't carried two first baseman on the roster because that's a good idea - but because we were stuck with Ryan Howard.

[zambonir]

Ruf simply can't back up the current first baseman. If he had even a modicum of value, you could trade him for someone else's 6th OF or LH hitting 1B bench guy, but I don't believe he does.

And yes, that is Asche's gig, if he's actually making the 25-man roster. But more likely the Phillies will be signing someone. Just not before November 18.

I don't really get the notion that the owners are sitting on money - yeah they have the Comcast money but they haven't exactly been printing cash at CBP the past few years. And you don't speed up the rebuild if there isn't anyone great out there to sign, you slow it down when those FAs collapse and/or eat up budget in future seasons.

If they do want to play with the likes of Cespedes or Desmond, that will probably come after Rule V. But those are both QO players (the Mets will be able to extend on if Cespedes opts out). Even with the Hellickson comp, I don't believe this team is going to give up its second round pick and pool money (though there is some strategic case to be made, if you don't think the team will be Top 10 next year) or sign an over-30 player to a four-five year contract (which is what the market will bear for any good player).

[Austinfan]

I'd keep Stassi over Asche, Stassi could be LH PH and late inning defensive replacement.
Yes, giving up top draft picks to be more competitive in 2017 kinda negates the point of a rebuild.
Epstein waited until his 4th season to start hitting the FA market, first he rebuilt the core of the team, then he went shopping.
I'd say we're entering year 2-3 (the rebuild didn't really start until July 2015, it should have started after the 2012 season when the window was closing, at worst, after 2013 when it was obvioius they were no longer competitive).

You can't blame the current FO for the three year delay that allowed the farm system to continue to decay as the ML team steadily declined.
While fans may be frustrated with 4 straight losing seasons, the PTB have to keep their eyes on the prize.

[andyb]

We don't need to "keep" Stassi. Even in the tiny chance he got selected in the rule 5 draft his contributions are easily replaceable. Left handed first basemen with an 800 AAA OPS are pretty easy to find, especially if you are looking at older prospects age 26-30. We should not even think of protecting him. If he takes a step forward and wins a bench job at some point next year that is great. There is just no need to protect him for that to happen.

There is a better case to keep Asche. He can play 4-5 positions even if he is not great at any of them. And he has been a better hitter in AAA than Stassi (850 OPS mostly at younger ages compared to 806 for Stassi and Asche is STILL a year younger).

He is not a great bench piece, but he is not an awful one either. We need a backup middle infielder and a catcher. For the 3 other spots it would not be the worst thing to have Asche, a LF/1B type that bats left handed (could even be Stassi) plus a good defensive OF (could be Quinn as part of a rotation/platoon). I won't cry over losing Asche because he is also replaceable. I am just not sure we will find much better among free agents that would sign for less than $5 million/year.

This constant love of overage 1B in the minors is like the love of backup quarterbacks. They put up great stats against weaker or younger competition and really are not that good.

The big decisions on the rule 5 will be more among our AA and High A level prospects. Tirado, Tocci, Canelo, Anderson, etc. These guys all have decent ceilings and are young enough to improve. They are a stretch to stick on a major league roster though. With Tirado, for instance, it would be a huge benefit to slip him through so they would not use an option year. A guy like him could take a few years to figure things out so he might need as many option years as we can get him.

[donaldorc]

As much as I have liked Ruf, I agree with what Andyb said, Joseph brings the same skill set (better?) and it is time to move on from Ruf.

[VoteForKalas]

I agree Ruf's time is over here, but, as many have mentioned before, it is a legit complaint that Ruf was shafted in recent seasons.

They yo-yoed him up/down quite a bit and also square pegged him into a round corner OF slot and, predictably, the experiment failed.

If Howard had been released instead of playing out the painful string and Ruf had been played consistently at 1B, he might have performed better overall.

He certainly showed some evidence in 2014 and 2015 at 1B - .936 OPS over 49 PA in 2014 and a .798 OPS over 191 PA in 2015. 1B was his best position, everyone knew it, but it was bad timing/luck that the Phillies could not stomach cutting their losses with Howard.

I hope Ruf latches on with another team and does very well.

[Austinfan]

Ruf might pull a Coste in the right situation.

The difference between Stassi and Asche is simple, Stassi has improved over the last two years, is tearing up the winter league and at least deserves a shot somewhere, if not here, while Asche had over 1000 PA and showed no improvement, I don't mind a young player struggling, but forget age, at some point you have enough PA that you should be showing signs you can handle ML pitching, if not, the odds of success drop preciptously, because the ability to adjust is key to survival in the Show.

So I'm pretty sure Asche will never hit ML pitching, while Stassi might be a late bloomer.
Doesn't mean I'd use a 40 man spot on Stassi if it meant exposing a serious prospect, but I'd probably protect Stassi over Tocci. Stassi could help the Phillies in 2017, Tocci's upside is a 4th OF/defensive replacement in 2019 or so.

[allentown]

Ruf might pull a Coste in the right situation.

The difference between Stassi and Asche is simple, Stassi has improved over the last two years, is tearing up the winter league and at least deserves a shot somewhere, if not here, while Asche had over 1000 PA and showed no improvement, I don't mind a young player struggling, but forget age, at some point you have enough PA that you should be showing signs you can handle ML pitching, if not, the odds of success drop preciptously, because the ability to adjust is key to survival in the Show.

So I'm pretty sure Asche will never hit ML pitching, while Stassi might be a late bloomer.
Doesn't mean I'd use a 40 man spot on Stassi if it meant exposing a serious prospect, but I'd probably protect Stassi over Tocci. Stassi could help the Phillies in 2017, Tocci's upside is a 4th OF/defensive replacement in 2019 or so.

I wouldn't protect Stassi. I'd protect Asche before I protected Stassi, but I would be upset if he weren't protected. Both guys spent time in AAA this year. Asche beats Stassi by over 50 OPS points and has more positional flexibility. A below .800 OPS for a AAA 1B isn't really a big deal. His winter ball numbers are in a really weak league. I'm not at all sure I'd protect Tocci either, but I'd rather lose Stassi than lose Tocci.

The guy I definitely protect from below AA is Tirado. If he's not protected, he's gone. He made big strides in 2016 and has the super heater. It's easy to stash a pitcher, especially one who can start or relieve and it is the sort of arm a team will take a chance on.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

One thing I like to do is go through the International League Stats looking for AAAA players that might stick given the chance.
I also look at PCL numbers too, but it's almost impossible to get any kind of read there, where if you see a player go from the IL to the PCL their numbers consistently go through the roof.
One thing that was pretty obvious this season, while he was there, Ruf was the best hitter.
He started slow(something that he couldn't afford to do in the ML because of Howard, but once he started hitting, he got better and better. He isn't a guy like Cedric Hunter, a smallish player that swings from his butt. He's a big guy, with big power and a simple swing that launches the ball.
What kills me about Ruf, is that we just wasted a season on Peter Bourjos and what did we get out of it?
I have no doubt that if given the same kind of chance that Bourjos was given, that we would have gotten more out of Ruf offensively. We may have even found out we had a ballplayer on our hands. An inexpensive power source. He certainly wouldn't have given us Gold Glove quality defense, but I think we'd at least have some real answers instead of what we have today. If Ruf could have carried a .750 OPS, hit 20 HR's , that would be worth something wouldn't it? From what we've seen of him, is that really unrealistic? His lifetime OPS despite being jerked around is .747.
Last season, I saw some of the worst AB's in my life from Bourjos, yet he got more AB's in a season than Ruf has ever gotten. Ruf is under team control through the 2019 season. There is every reason in the world to give him every chance to succeed, especially when you're a team struggling to score runs and he's one of the few players you have capable of delivering some of that power you need.
I've seen posters suggesting we take a chance on CoCo Crisp and Brandon Moss. Two players that have struggled to stay healthy the last couple years. Neither is great in the field(Crisp replaced by Mini-Mart in the World Series because he can't throw), but signing one of those two for whatever is a better option than giving someone you have a real chance?
If no one one here thinks they can compete, what's the point? So that maybe one of those two manages to stay healthy long enough that we can flip them for a bag of balls? And if they don't, they just wasted another chance you could have given to someone you already have.
What could be easier, play Ruf in LF, if he doesn't hit and one of Quinn, Williams or Cozens start knocking down the door, you call them up. I'm sure this doesn't excite anyone, but this time last year, no one had Tommy Joseph as our starting First Baseman, Ruf could surprise too and be some insurance if Joseph falters.

[Philsmania]

Ruf might pull a Coste in the right situation.

The difference between Stassi and Asche is simple, Stassi has improved over the last two years, is tearing up the winter league and at least deserves a shot somewhere, if not here, while Asche had over 1000 PA and showed no improvement, I don't mind a young player struggling, but forget age, at some point you have enough PA that you should be showing signs you can handle ML pitching, if not, the odds of success drop preciptously, because the ability to adjust is key to survival in the Show.

So I'm pretty sure Asche will never hit ML pitching, while Stassi might be a late bloomer.
Doesn't mean I'd use a 40 man spot on Stassi if it meant exposing a serious prospect, but I'd probably protect Stassi over Tocci. Stassi could help the Phillies in 2017, Tocci's upside is a 4th OF/defensive replacement in 2019 or so.

Every now and then you get the guy like Jose Bautista, Marlon Byrd, Chris Davis or Brandon Moss who puts up well over 1000 at bats in an up to that point undistinguished career before finally putting it together. However, those guys are the exception rather than the rule and in the case of all of those guys, they went through multiple organizations before things clicked. Only Davis was in his second organization. Heck, the Blue Jays was Bautista's sixth organization. One organization can't keep waiting forever, though. You can't blame yourself if you were two organizations ago. Maybe Ruf or Asche will become something someplace else. Heck, maybe even Dom Brown will come back from the dead and be a star next year. But, we can't count on any of that ever happening.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Ruf might pull a Coste in the right situation.

The difference between Stassi and Asche is simple, Stassi has improved over the last two years, is tearing up the winter league and at least deserves a shot somewhere, if not here, while Asche had over 1000 PA and showed no improvement, I don't mind a young player struggling, but forget age, at some point you have enough PA that you should be showing signs you can handle ML pitching, if not, the odds of success drop preciptously, because the ability to adjust is key to survival in the Show.

So I'm pretty sure Asche will never hit ML pitching, while Stassi might be a late bloomer.
Doesn't mean I'd use a 40 man spot on Stassi if it meant exposing a serious prospect, but I'd probably protect Stassi over Tocci. Stassi could help the Phillies in 2017, Tocci's upside is a 4th OF/defensive replacement in 2019 or so.

You could just as easily say we rushed Asche, when he's actually the late bloomer.

[donaldorc]

I agree Ruf's time is over here, but, as many have mentioned before, it is a legit complaint that Ruf was shafted in recent seasons.

They yo-yoed him up/down quite a bit and also square pegged him into a round corner OF slot and, predictably, the experiment failed.

If Howard had been released instead of playing out the painful string and Ruf had been played consistently at 1B, he might have performed better overall.

He certainly showed some evidence in 2014 and 2015 at 1B - .936 OPS over 49 PA in 2014 and a .798 OPS over 191 PA in 2015. 1B was his best position, everyone knew it, but it was bad timing/luck that the Phillies could not stomach cutting their losses with Howard.

I hope Ruf latches on with another team and does very well.

I agree with everything in this post. Ruf being yo-yoed, and wishing him success with another organization.

[julio]

Matt Gelb @MattGelb
Phillies have 8 open spots on 40-man roster, and Matt Klentak said more must be cleared to protect all of the players they want to protect.
3:46 PM - 8 Nov 2016

[allentown]

Matt Gelb @MattGelb
Phillies have 8 open spots on 40-man roster, and Matt Klentak said more must be cleared to protect all of the players they want to protect.
3:46 PM - 8 Nov 2016

That's good news. I feared they would risk some guys who ought to be protected, like Tirado.

[LoneStarPhan]

We will just have to see how he gets the spaces he needs to protect those he wants to protect.

I have always hated seeing far too often, the team protection a couple players in November only to release them in March, if not sooner and then losing a player to the rule 5 draft.

[Dell]

Matt Gelb @MattGelb
Phillies have 8 open spots on 40-man roster, and Matt Klentak said more must be cleared to protect all of the players they want to protect.
3:46 PM - 8 Nov 2016

That's good news. I feared they would risk some guys who ought to be protected, like Tirado.

I'm thrilled with this. I was scared about losing Tirado too.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Matt Gelb @MattGelb
Phillies have 8 open spots on 40-man roster, and Matt Klentak said more must be cleared to protect all of the players they want to protect.
3:46 PM - 8 Nov 2016

That's good news. I feared they would risk some guys who ought to be protected, like Tirado.

I'm thrilled with this. I was scared about losing Tirado too.

I'm not worried about losing Tirado, I think he's a long shot at best. I would feel bad for him if he is chosen though, because he's someone that can't afford to lose a year of development on a ML roster.

[julio]

Matt Gelb, in his online chat today, indicated that he expects Drew Anderson to be added to the 40-man roster this week. FWIW.