Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

[andyb]

Wasn't Painter untouchable?

Maybe back in 2022. But until he showed he had recovered from the TJ surgery and regained his effectiveness he was probably undervalued or not heavily pursued by other teams anyway. Like who would trade for Miller now with all the injury uncertainty.

[allentown]

Wood
Renteria
Miller
Spangler
Marquez
Rincon
Nori
McFarlane
Obermueller
Heredia

I'd go Parra at #6. I realize it's DSL, but he already looks like the most polished hitter in the system. Most hitters in the Phillies system (including the major league roster) always look like they are trying to feel their way through it. Parra looks like he's up there with a plan- like he's into the game and what the pitcher is trying to do and doing it with a pretty polished swing with plenty of ability to keep getting stronger. I think he and Renteria have the highest ceilings in the system, at least before seeing what the 2026 draft guys can do.

I'd also put Parra in top 10. I think with the way the back intjury is progressing, Miller is too high. To me, he's a huge ? at this time. To add Parra to top 10, Id' more Rincon to 11.

[Squire]

I'm not including Spangler until he signs a contract.

[andyb]

MLB.com did a re-rank yesterday that had Marquez up to 4 and Parra up to 12. New draftees not included yet.

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/phillies/

[schillingfan]

Gelb with a deep dive on the system and the prospects we might be about to trade. Lot of focus on Marquez fitting the pattern of a high riser with value.

We also got details describing Aidan Miller's condition as a degenerative disc and that it may be necessary to repeat the procedure he had, and that Nori has had a stress fracture in his hip.

Was the procedure where they burn the nerve endings. There’s not a lot to do with degenerative discs when they impinge on nerves, Plus degenerative diseases the spine.

[zambonir]

Yup. Ablation.But I don't think he has been diagnosed with a degenerative disc.

[Squire]

Now that Spangler has signed I think this is where I’m at.

1. Gage Wood, RHP
2. Francisco Renteria, OF
3. Ramon Marquez, RHP
4. Bryan Rincon, SS
5. Tyler Spangler, SS
6. Alirio Ferrebus, C/DH
7. Aidan Miller, SS
8. Alex McFarlane, RHP
9. Dante Nori, OF
10. Juan Parra, SS
11. Cade Obermueller, LHP
12. Juan Villavicencio, SS
13. Will Gasparino, OF
14. Matthew Fisher, RHP
15. Cody Bowker, RHP
16. Griffin Burkholder, RHP

[andyb]

Way too harsh on Miller. Even with the injury questions he has to rank as high as 3 or 4 (and 4 would be behind Spangler for me). Just no way a guy that profiles as Edmundo Sosa (Rincon) gets ranked higher than guys who look like regular starters with plus bats.

[zambonir]

I guess if you think Miller's current floor is "never makes the majors" you drop him. But that lower number probably also reflects his current trade value, no? Obviously he would shoot back up once he takes a live AB, and to the top if he was able to pick up where he left off.

[allentown]

Way too harsh on Miller. Even with the injury questions he has to rank as high as 3 or 4 (and 4 would be behind Spangler for me). Just no way a guy that profiles as Edmundo Sosa (Rincon) gets ranked higher than guys who look like regular starters with plus bats.

I like the list, including dropping Miller, although I'd put him at 6. To me, this ranking should be a combination of ceiling, probability of approaching that ceiling, and high certainty floor. Miller's injury is serious Until he comes back and plays well, his probable floor is that his injury prevents him from ever playing the major part of a season and his floor is career over. He can always be positioned higher on list when healthy.

[Philsmania]

Gelb with a deep dive on the system and the prospects we might be about to trade. Lot of focus on Marquez fitting the pattern of a high riser with value.

We also got details describing Aidan Miller's condition as a degenerative disc and that it may be necessary to repeat the procedure he had, and that Nori has had a stress fracture in his hip.

Was the procedure where they burn the nerve endings. There’s not a lot to do with degenerative discs when they impinge on nerves, Plus degenerative diseases the spine.

Therein lies my concern. Degenerative spine issues are not something which can be healed. One can learn to manage them.

[allentown]

i agree, and also my concern since this is a repeat injury and having shut him down for just about the entire season means that they haven't been able to manage it successfully, meaning that unless procedure works manage this condition is only going to become more difficult to manage as Miller ages.

[phillychuck]

Until Miller plays again I’m right with Squire and allentown ... 6 or 7 ...

[bigegypt0417]

When painter had hid TJ how far did he fall?

[phillychuck]

Not much at all, but TJ recovery is a well-understood process for pitchers. Back issues not so much, plus the Phils aren’t really sharing details (which is fine, just noting that).

And let me add that Painter still does not appear to be fully back from TJ, which is probably less than a 50% outcome going into the surgery.

[julio]

It's probably still too soon to evaluate Painter's recovery. Let's see where he is next spring.

[bigegypt0417]

I think TJ has an established recovery but it's still a crap shoot how well they recover.

I'm comfortable with where he is but I'd imagine elbows for pitchers are as important..right behind shoulders.

[andyb]

It's probably still too soon to evaluate Painter's recovery. Let's see where he is next spring.

The point was not whether Painter is a prospect now (which he is but with significant pitch issues to work through). It was the odds of him being able to approximate his performance before he was hurt. With TJ surgery that is in the 80%-90% range. And Painter DID that. He did not progress, but many completely healthy pitching prospects do not progress either.

With Miller there is uncertainty in his injury recovery. There is a lack of info and he is obviously not playing. But also the procedure has been described as one that can help him manage his injury and play. It really seems there is something in the 50%-80% of likelihood that he could recover fully and his prospect statue does not depend as much on longevity if this is a condition that will hurt him more over time in his 30s.

If healthy his likelihood of success is greater than Painter's ever was. The high ceiling is still there and is as high as anyone other than probably Renteria and Spangler. I am just not going to drop him behind lower ceiling guys like Rincon and Ferrebus at this point. 2-3 high ceiling years could be more than the entire career of those guys.

It is frustrating the lack of information and the slow recovery - but until we have better info he really should not be dropped that far. He still could be our 3B or SS next season though the beginning of the year is of course questionable.

[phillychuck]

Miller has two hurdles 1. the back 2. missing a year. Prospects who miss a year almost always regress and have to repeat a level. you can’t go a full year not seeing and reacting to pitches and expect to just pick up where you were.

[allentown]

If healthy his likelihood of success is greater than Painter's ever was. The high ceiling is still there and is as high as anyone other than probably Renteria and Spangler.

I don't think that's correct. Painter's ceiling was #2 starter. His chance of reaching that, even before injury, was probably lower. What do you think Miller's realistic ceiling is, in terms of WAR?