Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

[Matt_Winkelman]

The point generally is that velocity isn’t the only component, and there are ways to improve shape within via delivery changes (arm angle, release point, extension). If a player’s 4-seam fastball shape is poor there may be other things they are better at because of how their body works, such as a sinker and changeup (see Sanchez, Cristopher). Velocity can offset shape some two, yes a better shaped fastball can play up compared to higher velocity poor shape, but velocity still can offset problems especially when paired with secondary pitches (which also perform better the harder they are thrown).

The teams that are the best at this take pitchers with outlier traits or unoptimized deliveries and arsenals and optimize them for how that pitcher works. It also is acquisition cost, if everyone chases a certain archetype there is value in players with other traits and there are things you can do to offset their weaknesses. Velocity is still king in the way that bat speed is king for hitters, but it is not a single success item.

[phillychuck]

"And I know more about pretty much everything than pretty much anybody.”

Seems to be a widely held opinion, but statistically highly unlikely.

[andyb]

I have no argument with the statement that pitch shape is more important these days in scouting. What Kalk is saying is that there are aspects of it that seem hard to teach. That is a bit of a new statement and I would love to see other informed opinions on that. I know Matt has written extensively about how the Phillies have valued pitch shape the last few years but it is unclear to me as to know if the Phillies think they can teach it to prospects that do not have it. It is possible they are just adding a bit of weight in their scouting to pitch shape in addition to the other attributes.

[Austinfan]

There is also the "Red Queen" effect.
As teams chase velocity, hitters are selected for bat speed.

But this makes both offspeed and FBs with movement more effective, since hitters have less time to react to a pitch that varies from the "norm." And makes velocity less valuable on the margin, b/c if everyone throws 92+, hitters get used to hitting 96 MPH FBs without good movement.

I think the confusion is between the absolute value of velocity and the relative value.

The absolute value has raised the minimum velocity for most pitchers (Ranger an outlier with his 90 MPH FB), but this also squeezes the range as only a few pitchers can throw 96+ on a consistent basis (add a couple MPH out of the bullpen). Physiological limits start setting in. So as the minimum velocity rises, the majority of pitchers fall into a smaller range of velocities and hitters are self selected for those who can hit that velocity.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Bat speed isn’t about pitch velocity, yes higher velocity creates hated, but bat speed matters for two basic reasons.

Hitting the ball is a very basic physics equation where mass x velocity determines the outcome of a collision. The faster you swing a bat without giving up bat weight determines how hard you hit the ball.

The faster you swing the more time you have to make swing decisions.

Now there is also bat speed vs swing length.

[Austinfan]

"The faster you swing the more time you have to make swing decisions."

That's directly related to velocity, higher velocity reduces your decision time, higher bat speed balances that.

Red Queen applies to all competitive situations:

The Red Queen hypothesis is an evolutionary concept describing how species must constantly adapt, evolve, and compete to survive in a changing environment, similar to the Red Queen in Alice in Wonderland who tells Alice, "it takes all the running you can do to keep in the same place".

Example, rule changes in ice hockey encouraged more speed, average weight dropped 5 lbs, top speed increased by 1-2 MPH over last decade . Colorado, TB were high speed teams. Then FLA responded by getting bigger, still above average but much slower than top teams. One reason was the increase in speed shifted the minimum skater closer to the long tail, so slow big players were eliminated, but mobile big players could thrive against a smaller league.

Shift toward the passing game caused NFL defenses to get smaller and faster to improve coverage, but then made them vulnerable to power running games.

And so on.

[Austinfan]

I am disappointed that there are no Firesign Theatre fans on this site!