Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2026

[BostonRoss]

I still view Painter with a lot of caution. Even seeing him pitch and being amazed at his stuff (though he had command issues that day), I there have been an awful lot of top prospects who never amounted to much, often due to injuries, which Painter has already had. Here are some "can't miss" pitching prospects I remember: Mark Appel, Kyle Drabek, Todd Van Poppel, Mark Prior, Rick Ankiel, ...

[zambonir]

Any pitcher can get hurt any time. But I wouldn't say Prior was a miss. He broke, but had a career first. Appel was pretty much a bust before he even got to AA. I think Painter is more regarded for his stuff than Drabek was, though maybe not by much. He got through the hard part before the injury. Now comes the hardest part.

In 2011 Drabek was the BP #11 prospect for Toronto. Dom Brown was #4. Harper/Trout 1-2. Jeremy Hellickson 9.

[BostonRoss]

We don't know yet if Painter will break. I'd be thrilled if Painter became Strasburg though he eventually broke, too.

Of course, sometimes a top pitching prospect does fulfill his promise. Skenes, so far...

[allentown]

And, there were physical (and makeup) issues about Hamels when we chose him in the first round.

[fish]

We don't know yet if Painter will break.

I’m not worried about him breaking as much as I am that he’ll take several years to blossom- which is typical for highschool pitchers who make it.

[zambonir]

And if that's the case we're looking at a Mick Abel situation. Can he (and the Phillies) survive some bumps at the major league level, or does he need to stay in the minors both for his development and because the Phillies need more than 5th starter type production. And if the latter, does he end up getting traded like Happ and Worley did (and they were both having success).

But for now, barring any other injuries, they just need him to pitch decently while Wheeler is out, and then make a choice between him and Walker.

[andyb]

We are nearing the end of offseason lists (the new MLB.com team list is still to come), but here is the Fangraphs Top 100.

Miller (13)
Painter (27)
No Crawford but good rankings for Tait (46) and Klassen (57)

2026 Top 100 Prospects

[andyb]

In perhaps the final major preseason ranking, MLB slots Francisco Renteria at 5 on our new top 30. Ramon Marquez all the way up to 11. Cade Obermueller at 9 is consistently in the back end of our various top 10 lists.

https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/phillies-top-30-prospects-list-2026-preseason?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/phillies/

[Philsmania]

We are nearing the end of offseason lists (the new MLB.com team list is still to come), but here is the Fangraphs Top 100.

Miller (13)
Painter (27)
No Crawford but good rankings for Tait (46) and Klassen (57)

2026 Top 100 Prospects

Is it possible that they decided to "graduate" Crawford?

[andyb]

Is it possible that they decided to "graduate" Crawford?

No. They just like him less as a prospect than others. We all know his swing and defense are pretty divisive among analysts. We will see how accurate they are this season (with the caveat that all rookies have adjustment issues).

[andyb]

Notes from beyond the top 50:

Phillies 2026 Top Prospects – Emptying the Notebook

[Squire]

RHP Gage Wood enters the MLBPipeline Top 100

https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/2043039290519634015

[andyb]

Graduation day for Crawford and Painter. Spikerman and Heredia back in the top 30 (though the MLB rankings are always weird when they add new players but don't re-rank others. Why is Chace at number 8 for instance? We are down to 2 top 100 prospects (Miller and Wood).

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/phillies

[Matt_Winkelman]

Why wouldn't Chace not be #8? His ranking is essentially frozen until he is back. For me he is #9 on my opening day and now, but I did have McFarlane jump him and I inserted Renteria. Essentially there is no reason to drop him. That all said, the "live" but not live nature of the MLB rankings is very bizarre.

[andyb]

I guess after his surgery I mentally dropped him further in my mind out of the top 10. Admittedly there is little depth in the back of our top 10, but I am always wary of prospects that have a meteoric rise in rankings and then get hurt. Just makes me think that the stuff that made them rise was what got them hurt and may not be sustainable.

[allentown]

I don't believe in freezing seriously injured players in their prospect rank slot. At the least, they lose considerable development time. Then their expected future value must be reduced to account for the fraction of such injuries in which the injured player does not return to form. TJ does not have 100% surgical success rate, the odds on shoulders and backs are probably worse. I certainly don't see Miller as being as valuable a prospect as he was before the repeated serious back woes. He has definitely lost a lot of development time, will be regarded as more prone to further back woes, and may return with less ability than he had. One way to look at it: what team would trade as much for him now as they would have at the end of last season?

[andyb]

It is very possible Wood is our top prospect now. Hard to make a call on Miller without more info, but the longer this goes on I agree he drops in value. He had been in the 10-20 range in most MLB rankings. Guessing he'll be more like 50th in any midseason rankings unless he starts playing again.

[Matt_Winkelman]

I am not saying they are frozen pre-injury, but Chace dropped after the injury and then he froze (from top 5 to the back of the top 10). There is nothing that changes over the course of the normal rehab time.

[allentown]

There is nothing that changes over the course of the normal rehab time.

I totally agree. Miller hasn't been reset yet and his recovery time, and even extent of recovery, are unknown -- at least to us-- at this time. I guess I jumped the shark from the original discussion about Chace, because Miller is top of my mind. I didn't do an adequate segue.

[andyb]

I just come from the perspective that Chace was overrated BEFORE his injury. Yes he flashed good stuff for one season. But he also was a 4-5 inning pitcher and then he broke down when we tried to stretch him out more. Even in that great season he had a 3.59 ERA in only 80.1 innings. 4.5 BB/9 in that year. Griff McGarry flashed as much (and as little) in his time with the Phillies too.

I just never thought he was top 100 material when he was pitching well. He needed to follow that up with some refinement. Now the system's depth was weak so he ranked higher in our system than others, so any top 10 ranking with the Phillies might be 18th in a decent system.

I hope he recovers with stuff similar to before the surgery. I am just going to need to see some actual performance to rank him in the top 10 again.