Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[Matt_Winkelman]

I don't think so, but I don't know if there has been a game since. I am not even really saying where there is smoke there is fire as much as when there is smoke you should probably keep an eye on it. I also am guessing since it is the same area they are being extra cautious in the same way if a pitcher with any history of arm injuries experiences soreness you are extra careful.

[Austinfan]

Think you'd be extra cautious with a kid who's just finished his growth spurt and hasn't filled out or been in a pro training program for long. Sometimes with young players it's a matter of balancing muscle strength and fixing mechanical issues.

Lot of young 'injury prone' players become durable in their 20s. If in three years he has a history of dings, etc., then I'd worry.

[Squire]

Updated BA Top 100

14 Andrew Painter RHP

48 Aidan Miller, SS/3B

67 Eduardo Tait, C

88 Justin Crawford, OF

[allentown]

That gives our farm almost exactly average strength at the front-end list of our prospects.

[andyb]

System is definitely top heavy. The emergence of Tait and Escobar is helping though even if there is not as much depth as one would like. We are still helped by Painter of course who would have graduated 2 years ago absent injury.

[Squire]

Someone must have graduated because Aroon Escobar moves into the BA Top 100 as #100

[Austinfan]

A little above average - 100/30 = 3.3. We have 4. With Escobar, 5.

[andyb]

A meaningless stat based largely on the age and timing of prospects, and Painter not graduating in 2023 like he should have. It is still a below average system that is a little top heavy. Our 11-20 prospects are pretty mediocre compared to the rest of the league.

[phillychuck]

Chace getting TJ surgery doesn’t help since he’s close to a top 100 based on the end of his season last year.

[zambonir]

I wonder if this makes him more likely to be traded. The epitome of trading future WAR for present WAR.

At least he opens up a spot on the 40-man when needed.

[andyb]

With Chace one actually has to ask the question of whether the Phillies broke him. He never really went more than 4 innings when he got here because the Orioles do tandem starts through AA. We extended him beyond that gradually in his time with the team post deadline. There was no overuse, but the Phillies did extend his workload right when his stuff was ticking up (potentially from a Phillies adjustment too).

Increased velocity and spin comes with costs that we just don't understand and certainly can't control.

[Austinfan]

If you have to baby a SP past his early 20s, he's not very valuable.
18-21, until a kid physically matures, it makes sense to be catious, after that if he has to be protected, move him to the pen.
You want your SPs to average at least 6 IP per game, or you're going to burn through your bullpen.

[phillychuck]

There is no team in the major leagues whose starting pitchers averaged 6 IP last year as far as I can determine. Padres were highest at 5.78, and about half the teams were below 5.0 (Phils were second at 5.70). 6 IP average is a ridiculously high standard.

[zambonir]

He was only in A ball last year except for a little bit. Pretty normal to have light workloads there regardless. Heck we have a six-man in AAA. No question the Phillies changed some things with him but sometimes pitchers just break.

Was Painter not physically mature? (That's to AF)

[Austinfan]

What you want and what you get are two different things.
The better starters do average 6+ innings (though 7 IP per start is truly rare).
You hope your best prospects become better than average ML pitchers.
What you don't want is to pay $20+M a year to a 5 IP with a 4.50+ ERA/FIP.

[andyb]

No question the Phillies changed some things with him but sometimes pitchers just break.

But when they break right after we made the change (and the analytics stuff around spin rate may be more important than the increased innings) one certainly needs to pose the question even if there is no obvious answer.

[Matt_Winkelman]

He broke a full offseason later, one where he didn’t throw. The Phillies also did not ask him to go full effort or max spin. They asked him to pitch deeper, throw more strikes, throw less fastballs, and embrace a more diverse arsenal (literally what they do with all of their pitchers). He was much more efficient and looked much more like a pitcher than a thrower. In general the Phillies pitching philosophy has led to less injuries than others, it doesn’t mean it couldn’t hurt someone or that all injuries are prevented, but it is not a high risk thing.

[phillychuck]

What you want and what you get are two different things.
The better starters do average 6+ innings (though 7 IP per start is truly rare).
You hope your best prospects become better than average ML pitchers.
What you don't want is to pay $20+M a year to a 5 IP with a 4.50+ ERA/FIP.

That is not what you said, you said, "You want your SPs to average at least 6 IP per game, or you're going to burn through your bullpen.” And I pointed out correctly, that not one single staff in the big leagues averaged 6 IP. Just admit you said something wrong, and move on. Don’t try to change what you said.

[Austinfan]

You win. I surrender.

[schillingfan]

A bit harsh PC. It’s not unreasonable expect your better starting pitches to go six innings. That is different from expecting your starters to all be capable of insistent six innings. If Chance is a prospect as a starter, I would expect him to be able to go six innings, when he reaches the majors. Pretty much all our starters are exerted to go six innings, because we are lucky enough to have a good and deep pitching staff. Most teams have fungible fourth and fif starters. Whether a starting prospect should go six innings in AA, is a different question.