Prospect Lists - Phillies and Overall - 2022-2025

[Austinfan]

Yeah, Martin was a weird pick, tools but this organization seemed at least in the past to downgrade actual baseball skills and were first tool oriented, then "three tool outcome" oriented, and definitely confused.

Moniak, Haseley, etc. weren't awful picks, but they didn't develop at all.
Maton developed more in the majors away from their minor league coaching staff, we're seeing the same with Vierling.
Cozens, Ortiz seemed on the same trajectory. Never fixing a long power swing that sabotages contact.
With 95 MPH now the ML norm, you have to make bat speed a priority.

On the other hand, De La Cruz really turned the corner this year, Rojas as taken off since he hit Reading, and so on.
So maybe there's hope?

[Matt_Winkelman]

I will actually say on Maton and Vierling, the problem wasn't the minor league staff that one is actually the major league staff (also affected Bohm). As I wrote about a couple of times before the old hitting coach started making them do completely different things that involved hitting the ball directly into the ground. During 2021, because of COVID restrictions AAA was actually isolated from the rest of the minors so the major league hitting coach drove instruction there. That was all compounded by Girardi making it a toxic environment for young players.

That hitting coach was fired and you can immediately see all of those guys start to revert towards pre 2021 (and 2020 for Bohm) trends in their hitting profiles. Now there is a factor with Kevin Long being very very good at what he does, but also there is no really dev or swing changes you are seeing for guys between the majors and the minors.

[Austinfan]

Supposedly they fired a bunch of people before the season and standardized coaching at all levels.
How has that worked out? PR or actual substance?

[Matt_Winkelman]

I think there was more collaboration and consistency in the org, but they didn't find any diamonds in the rough and I think ultimately on the domestic side they just utterly lack talent due to poor talent acquisition and a couple of drafts that were very pitcher heavy. So I think there was actual substance, and it was not a finished product, but also that doesn't mean that things are turned around and while I like their pitcher drafting, the hitter drafting really does make you raise an eyebrow.

So substance but not enough yet? They do actually care about trying to make it all work vs the old regime which felt like it had no plan.

[Austinfan]

Yeah, that's what I figure. It would take 2-3 years to have a real impact, you're not going to take a kid in the lower minors and turn him into a star overnight, but consistent instruction from level to level would at least end the pattern of players "breaking out" then regressing.

I like that both the GCL (or whatever they call it these days) and Clearwater, now low A, are in the same complex, so you can give the young players hands on instruction, from their entry in the minors through the FCL in the fall, before you push them up to Lakewood.

Has anyone got Middleton to spend more money on his minor league players? It doesn't make sense to penny pinch in the minors then overspend in the majors - those stories about kids struggling to eat three squares and find a place to live simply aren't pretty for a rich organization.

[andyb]

Ortiz isn't that long ago,

It was 7+ years ago when we signed him. Probably 9 years since we agreed with him. It has been awhile. Ortiz is on his 3rd or 4th GM...

Sal is still here of course. Good scout, lousy negotiator.

[andyb]

Martin was not a weird pick. Just likely a bad one. Guys with 50 SB speed and 20 HR power that can play SS are very valuable (Trea Turner!!!!). He just could not hit and our organization is not the greatest at teaching that.

Guessing that all 30 organizations would love to have Martin's tools to develop in a prospect. The payoff when an organization is successful at developing such a talent are worth it.

[Austinfan]

Tools make more sense in an 18 year old, where there's the possibility you can teach him to use them.
College juniors should be much closer to finished products, 3 years plus wood league play, though in Martin's case, injury and COVID wiped out his junior season.

This is where scouting matters, his power didn't translate at all to the minors, college bats/ballpark effect?
He had elevated BABIP in college which has also evaporated in the minors.
Now .227 BABIP is ridiculously low, but even with a .300 BABIP he'd have hit around .235 in Lakewood at 23 years old.

[andyb]

Tools matter regardless of age. Martin's problem had nothing to with college competition and ballpark effects and elevated BABIP (as a fast player with power he SHOULD have a high BABIP. That is part of what tools get you). Martin's problem was simply knowledge of the strike zone and simply striking out too much.

But every team would still tackle that problem. It was a good gamble by the Phillies. We just do not do a great job of developing hit tools among toolsy prospects. That is an organizational problem. Drafting toolsy players is still good. Developing them is what is hard.

[Austinfan]

Depends where you draft them, Boyd in the 11th rd, every time, even with a middle round bonus.
Third round is iffy, odds aren't great, but you can get solid prospects there.
Somewhere around the 5th or 6th round you can gamble on tools because the odds of hitting on any player is low.
1st round? If you're aren't pretty sure you've got a future ML player, pass.

So Simmons in the 6th rd is fine, Radcliffe in the 5th,Ttonkel in the 9th, but Baylor in the 3rd was probably a reach.

[allentown]

I agree completely. There are few H.S. players who meet this qualification for a first rounder and they are generally snapped up in the first half dozen picks. I think as many H.S. gems are found in later rounds than in the first. The Phillies have done okay with H.S. pitchers, but have done as well or better with H.S. position players selected outside the first round.

[andyb]

Martin was drafted in the 3rd round. First round tools with uneven performance that pushed him to the 3rd round. Lots of teams probably thought about drafting him there. Clearly the Phillies liked him enough to give him an above slot bonus, but neither the amount or draft position surprised people. Remember as someone who could play SS he was seen to have a higher floor than some of the toolsy outfielders drafted in similar position.

To me this is more a development failure than a scouting failure. Everyone knew he had a lousy hit tool. We were just unable to develop it. Moniak is kind of the opposite. We scouted him as having a plus hit tool and he really did not have one. Moniak is more of a scouting disappointment.

[allentown]

Moniak is kind of the opposite. We scouted him as having a plus hit tool and he really did not have one. Moniak is more of a scouting disappointment.

I think equally a development failure. Changed his swing because they wanted power.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Not to put them off the hook (because they probably factor into the player's decision), but Moniak, like Kingery before him has a swing coach outside of the Phillies and did not really listen to the Phillies coaches until Kevin Long told him this spring training almost exactly what they had been telling him.

This actually shows up in the Joe Dillon fiasco as Moniak is one of the few hitters to show zero trend changes when exposed to Dillon.

His problem also wasn't entirely hit tool as in contact and swing, it was that his pitch recognition and approach were mostly garbage.

[Austinfan]

Moniak was the development failure, consensus best swing out of HS. The pitch recognition is a scouting failure, I mean they made a movie about "hitting the curve" - being able to see spin is a key element of being a top hitter. And not being coachable is also a scouting failure, anyone can look at film, one of the key roles of a scout is to dig around for information about the player's character, intelligence, motor, work ethic, coachability, etc.

A college player out of a major program with a lousy hit tool isn't a top prospect (i.e. top 100).

[andyb]

BA Top 10

Painter
Abel
McGarry
Crawford
Rojas
Lee
Miller
Rincones
Muzziotti
Wilson

Any insights from the chat last week? Looks like it is behind the paywall this year. Note my public library's free magazine app does have Baseball America (used to be Libby, now Magzter library) so the issue with the East division prospects is available there (plus the article on Painter).

[kmc1019]

Andy - highlights from BA chat:

2023 Philadelphia Phillies Top 10 Prospects Chat

Just running through the conversation sequentially:
-DeLaCruz profiles as power bat off the bench; big leaguer though unlikely starter
-Rickardo Perez' year in FCL was impressive, more power than hit; not great catcher but not enough power to move to 1B or athleticism to move anywhere else
-Kendall Simmons took a big step forward in high-A in the eyes of the organization, but 2023 will be make or break year
-Crawford likely ends up as "table setter with plus defense and 25 steals"
-Viars "still one of better prospects in system" despite bad 2022
-NPG is an "exciting bat" and Boyd "an impressive athlete", both could break out in full season ball next year
-Despite Rojas' explosiveness and defense, Crawford a better bet for long-term starter due to superior hit tool
-McGarry most likely highest value as closer with explosive arsenal
-Marchan not a valuable trade chip due to lack of hitting
-Casey Martin unlikely to thrive without swing overhaul
-Crouse still viable as bullpen piece or long reliever
-Rincones better prospect as LH hitter than Ethan Wilson
-Painter, Miller and McGarry (as a reliever) all likely in Philly by end of 2023, Abel less likely
-Abel likely ends up as solid #3 starter than 1 or 2
-Ortiz regressed in 2022, tough to see a big league career

These statements were in response to written questions from readers. Nothing especially insightful in my opinion, but hope this helps.

[andyb]

Baseball Prospectus list out today (behind paywall but Painter of course is number one).

2023 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects
by @jaseidler , @Matt_Winkelman , and BP Prospect Staff https://t.co/DnLdCePuTP pic.twitter.com/HncHadxHfA

— Baseball Prospectus ( @baseballpro ) November 28, 2022

[Matt_Winkelman]

I won't give away our writeups, but here is the list that was a composite and not Jarrett or my specific list...
Painter
-gap-
Abel
McGarry
-gap-
Lee
Crawford
Rojas
-giant chasm-
Bergolla
McFarlane
Muzziotti
De La Cruz
Baker
Rincones
Morales
Miller
Pauaka-Grego
Estanista
Boyd
Viars
Perez
Kerkering

If you have any process questions I am happy to answer. A lot of the ranks within those groups are just general preferences and there is not much if any gaps.

[andyb]

Thanks. The industry (not just you) is definitely starting to rate Lee higher. Definitely should get to see him against higher level pitching this season. He is really hard to project (like Curtis Mead too). I think he is a bit better defensively than Mead, but do we really think he can be a good middle infielder at least at 2B?