allentown, andy et all...not that it will change anyone's mind, time and historical perspective will likely take care of that but since you continue to insist I am not presenting enough evidence, I will take one more swipe at it. Dr. Ioannidis and Dr. Katz early on were saying there should be no lockdown, simply protect the elderly population and that eventually [sooner rather than later] this virus, much like other coronas would weaken and lose its strength. They were saying this back in March and neither has changed his mind. They were never huge proponents or opponents of masks but felt that if it made people feel more comfortable then wear them. They advocated for the social distancing and stay home if you are sick. They both though taking the kids out of schools was a huge mistake, still do.
As for Dr. Michael Levitt, he won a Nobel Peace Price in 2013 and is a nationally recognized virologist at Stanford University and wrote an article on March 13 in the LA Times insisting there should be no lockdown and "things were going to be fine." His prediction was that based on his studies of other countries and his knowledge of coronas the deaths would spike and then drop precipitously. He has remained [all 3 of them actually] at the forefront of presenting the view that this will not last nearly as long as the doomsayers indicate and that good social distancing and hand washing will do the trick. All three insisted that there should never have been any panic or fear.
I could go on and on about these three, its easy enough to find and they are interviewed publicly by stations interested in hearing their views, which means not very many. In my view, one of these gentleman should have been on the task force, differing and contrasting views are generally healthy when forming such important decisions. That this wasn't done was a mistake in my opinion.
Now the numbers. I mentioned that about a month ago the number of ill patients vs recovered patients worldwide was in the positive, not a good thing at all. This was based on the John Hopkins Worldometer, the site that is widely acclaimed to be the most accurate of all sites, and one that the CDC often quotes from. I began to notice the numbers
shift a month ago and since then they have overwhelmingly been headed in the proper direction...today it sits at 5 million, 615 thousand recovered and 4 million, 230 thousand still ill. A net positive of 1.4 million in a month. Even better, of those that are ill world wide, 99% of them [4.175 million] are mild vs 1% [ 57,000] that are serious or critical. Even one is too many but these numbers speak to a virus that is weakening, better health care, more understanding of the virus, and a younger population testing positive with largely asymptomatic conditions.
Also, in the United States, another number that is trending positive is the number of recovered vs the number of fatalities. Over 1.1 million have now recovered while the fatality rate sits at 128,000. The US has finally creeped over 90% recovered, no small feat after being in the 76-78% range during April/early May. And while 128,000 is a terrible number the reality is that at least 1/3 of those were caused by poor nursing home practices from 5-6 governors. I am not going to repeat their names, we all know who they are. But now that the nursing homes are being better cared for the fatality number continues to drop, as I anticipate it will continue to do so.
Look, if we relate this to baseball, if a Phillie player starts his season hitting poorly but for the past several months has continually been hitting better and raising his average, the logical assumption is that he is going to finish his season hitting well, there is little evidence to suggest otherwise and ample evidence to suggest it is so. This is the same evidence I use to support my case that the virus is weakening, not mutating and not the danger it presented back in April. It was an unknown terror then, it is not so now, we know so much more.
This is no argument for or against masks, I told julio when asked that if/when I have to wear one I will. And I understand that for some on this site, this virus may be extremely personal and I never want to come across as insensitive, my mother is an assisted living home and many of my friends on this site are in that danger zone age wise [as am I!] But its important to allow optimism to float to the surface when floating sure seems in order. And that is where I believe we are now and will continue to say so until/unless I see otherwise.