Phillies Sign OF Kyle Schwarber, 4 Yrs, $79 Million

[julio]

Couple observations:

• Hoskins will be a FA after 2023…probably gone.

• We don’t know the details of the Castellanos contract yet. Opt-outs? We can’t assume that the “glut” of LF/1B/DH types will not resolve itself just yet.

[andyb]

Bohm as a 1B or DH never was really a great plan as his offense is not ideal at 1B and there are better uses for a DH. So there is not really a logjam post-Hoskins because both Schwarber and Castellanos could be out of the outfield by then, largely holding down 1B and DH with an occasional OF appearance to let JT or Harper DH. I think Bryce will be fine in the outfield for another 4 years and we can see where he is at this time.

The Phillies clearly need to be developing better defensive position players, but they should have options on all of this in the next 2-4 years. If Bohm cannot play an acceptable 3B he is likely gone rather than moving down the defensive spectrum.

[allentown]

Couple observations:

Hoskins will be a FA after 2023…probably gone.
We don’t know the details of the Castellanos contract yet. Opt-outs? We can’t assume that the “glut” of LF/1B/DH types will not resolve itself just yet.

I agree with AF that signing both Schwarber and Castellanos was a poor idea, which will bite in coming seasons and which also creates a rather skewed team this year. I would still have signed two big free agents, but just one of those two as they are both very positionally limited. As things played out, the move was to not sign either of them, but to pay for my favorite FA, Correa, who actually solves multiple problems.

Also to your couple observations: Hoskins being gone as a FA after 2023 would be incredibly dumb action for Phillies. They have to get value back in trade, either at this year's deadline or during the next off-season. I'm not at all sure that any opt-outs which may exist in either Schwarber or Castellanos contracts are going to bail us out of this problem. Unless they have great years this year and next, they likely will want to serve out their contracts. It seems neither got as many $ this off-season as they expected to. One might argue that the strike made this not an ideal year to try for a big multi-year deal. I'll argue the contrary position: the first year in which the whole National League needs to roster a credible DH (after many teams, especially the Phillies did not roster anyone who could remotely be considered a credible DH for the inter-league DH games).

Of course, the Phillies are one of the older teams. Some of these duplicative DH-type player problems may be resolved by injury, but that is a horrible resolution of a self-made problem.

The Phillies keep failing and writing off key draft picks and international signees. Some were just horrendous choices at the time, but do we really want to write off Bohm now, as andyb surprisingly seems to be suggesting.

[zambonir]

One might argue that the strike made this not an ideal year to try for a big multi-year deal.

Lockout

[allentown]

Yeah, sorry. Obviously a lockout and totally on the owners and commish.

[andyb]

but do we really want to write off Bohm now, as andyb surprisingly seems to be suggesting.

I was not really suggesting that. I just want Bohm to play 3B and raise his defense while doing so to the acceptable level. If he can't play 3B though do we really think his offense is enough to push Castellanos or Schwarber off of 1B in 2 years? If that is our decision (Bohm can't play 3B but his offense is acceptable at 1B or DH), then we are better off trading Bohm to somebody that wants him at 3B or just needs his bat at 1B/DH.

Unfortunately a Bohm that cannot play 3B (but still has an 800-850 OPS) is not that valuable. We are seeing that with Hoskins. Good offensive player, but the total package just does not have much trade value. He is only valuable to the Phillies when his salary is acceptably low.

[zambonir]

Unfortunately a Bohm that cannot play 3B (but still has an 800-850 OPS) is not that valuable. We are seeing that with Hoskins. Good offensive player, but the total package just does not have much trade value. He is only valuable to the Phillies when his salary is acceptably low.

I agree with the general take on Bohm and it seems the Phillies do too (i.e. their interest in other 3B probably meant trading him, not changing his position). But if Hoskins is not really that valuable why did we just give so much money to two other players with similar limitations. Yeah, they are OFs, but only barely, and one of them is LH. But as Matt pointed out the other day the gulf is not that big.

It is weird to feel like Rhys Hoskins has been lost in the Schwarber/Castellanos signings, but he has been a better or equal hitter to them over his entire time in the majors (both had a better 2021, but Hoskins has been much more steady)

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) March 22, 2022

Here are the numbers (wRC+)
2021: H- 127 / C - 140 / S - 145
20-21: H - 130 / C - 128 / S - 127
19-21: H - 121 / C - 125 / S - 123
18-21: H - 123 / C - 126 / S - 121
17-21: H - 126 / C - 123 / S - 117
Hoskins the youngest of the trio by 12 days, same draft class as Schwarber

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) March 22, 2022

[andyb]

The difference is that Hoskins' salary has been artificially limited by arbitration. So we pay him less than his free agent value.

And while Castellanos and Schwarber are poor outfielders, Hoskins is even worse in the OF as we saw. So their ability to be bad defensively in LF is more than Hoskins' defensive ability. Simply put, a 1B is supposed to hit more than a LF because the position is easier to play.

Will Hoskins get $20 million a year in 2 years for 4-5 seasons? Possibly, especially if he maintains his current good but not great offense. Hoskins for $7.6 miilion > Hoskins for $20 million. If Hoskins' offense regresses at all in the next 2 years he'll probably be more of a $10 per year free agent. Then we might even think of retaining him, though the logjam at DH will be worse in 2 years.

Hoskins is a good player, but his offense is not getting any better (see your chart of 126-123-121-130-127). Pretty darn consistent. If that offense slips to 110-115 since Hoskins is past his peak (he is already 29, not 27) then his value slips.

[zambonir]

Well of course he's not getting better, but the two guys we just signed probably aren't either.

The chart is a little confusing (but also so consistent) because Matt went with more statistically relevant groupings of multiple seasons. Year-to-year Hoskins is 158-128-112-138-127. Does he have one more 130+ season in him? Let's hope. Will he be 115 by 2024? Yeah, probably, but so will the new guys.

And who knows, if they had actually stuck with Hoskins at LF he might not have been any worse than Schwarber or Castellanos, though those guys did play more difficult positions earlier in their careers. Not saying they should have kept him there (nor can they put him there now). Obviously they shouldn't have moved him at all.

I think Atown has it right, you've got to trade Rhys next off-season (or this deadline if things don't work out). He's probably a little better than people realize, but I get the appeal of the shiny new toys, and also, as the ostensible homegrown leader of this team along Nola, things have not exactly worked out.

[nycphils]

I’d be willing to deal Hoskins in a deal for a SP or CF who’ve got 2 or more seasons of control left. Will they find such a deal? Don’t know.

[allentown]

I don't think we need two years of control left. I think we have our homegrown CF for next season.

[andyb]

We are kind of stuck with the new guys though. We added 130ish bats now to Hoskins. In 2 years do we add another 115ish bat to what we have? Or find another 130+ player somewhere else?

[Austinfan]

This is why Manning MUST turn around the farm system quickly, you can't buy your way out of a bottom third farm system for very long.
Hoskins for futures isn't the worst outcome next winter, with the DH in the NL, there will be more potential partners.

But you need guys like Vierling, Maton, Muzzioti, Rojas, Garcia, O'hoppe and the young arms to start arriving next year and in a steady stream over the next 2-3 years. A rebound by Kingery or Haseley would work wonders. Some young RP arms (SD is looking promising) would allow us to let a couple of our one year guys walk.

We'll shed $30M next year in Didi and Segura, but we need Stott to take SS until Garcia is ready (if ever), then move to 2B or 3B. Bohm settling in at 3B would help - but you can see the problem - where some teams have young starters and top prospects behind them - we have old starters and question marks behind them.

[allentown]

where some teams have young starters and top prospects behind them - we have old starters and question marks behind them

Yes, that a serious problem, which stems from a decade of inadequate scouting and player development. That is the bread and butter of the baseball professionals in the organization. They consistently failed us, although there are signs that things are turning around. For now, patching with FA is about the best we can do.

[phillychuck]

This is why Manning MUST turn around the farm system quickly, you can't buy your way out of a bottom third farm system for very long.

It would strengthen your argument if you got the name of the farm director correct..Mattingly, not Manning. Manning's are that other sport.

[zambonir]

This is why Manning MUST turn around the farm system quickly, you can't buy your way out of a bottom third farm system for very long.

Mattingly. But it's no easier to turn around a farm system "quickly" as it is to buy your way out.

Hopefully the combination of Mattingly's system and Barber's picks will do what the last four scouting and dev people (combined) could not, with Stott and Bohm at least salvaging the end of Almaraz's run. But it's not like Abel and Painter are going to be able to just step in for Wheeler and Nola either.

[Austinfan]

Drafting and signings have been subpar, but I think the primary problem has been a chaotic development system in which players get different messages at each level as they rise in the system. Without a coherent approach, that reflects both a general philosophy but is also tailored to individual players (i.e. don't take contact hitters and try to turn them into upper cut power hitters, make them contact hitters with more power), prospects seemed to flatline in AA and AAA on a consistent basis. Were they all that bad? Or is something rotten in the state of Florida?

Phillies have a strong contingent of prospects in A ball and GCL this year, top systems seem to be able to launch a couple shooting stars each year - prospects who fly through their systems and to the majors. Who was the last Philly prospect to do so?

[phillychuck]

Matt Vierling. Aaron Nola. Cole Hamels earlier.

[allentown]

If we're going earlier -- Kevin Stocker, without whom there is no Phillies 1993 trip to WS and no Bobby Abreu as a Phillie. We both forgot the most recent, not entirely successful, example : Bohm -- drafted 2018, Phillies starting 3B second half of 2020.

[andyb]

It used to be pretty common for high round college pitchers to blow through the minors. Pat Combs made his minor league debut the year after he was drafted and made the majors at the end of that first year. Bruce Ruffin had 2 half seasons in High A and AA before his debut.

I guess Abel and Painter are on the polished end for HS draft picks, but I expect the Phillies to manage their innings and game their service time so we won't see them until late 2023/2024 respectively at the earliest. Maybe even 2024/2025.