You just proved my point, "They know the 22 year old would require a higher draft pick". i.e. is more valuable.
Which is why over time draft position reflects expected value, which is a product of both upside and the probability of reaching said upside. However, you also have to adjust for risk b/c the supply of top draft picks/bonus babies is limited, so a team can't count on the law of large numbers - so they discount the riskier player.
By the time the Phillies picked, Abel's higher risk was balanced by his higher upside. But the higher risk of HS pitchers means you will have more flops for every guy who develops into a top starter. Because you may only draft 3 or 4 HS pitchers at the top of the draft over a decade, bad luck can make you look like an awful drafter, whereas hit one "lottery ticket" (late round pick) HS pitcher and all the misses are forgotten.