Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[andyb]

The minor league stats and major league recency stats suggest the 601 OPS from last year is closer to his true ability than the SSS stats from last year. Cal Stevenson put up a 900 OPS in AAA last year and is a marginal big league bat at best.

Rojas could still get better and he did get good winter experience this year, but he is most likely not going to get a chance this Spring even if he hits very well. Marsh and Kepler and Castellanos are all ahead of him against RHP. He'll get his chances, but winning a full time job in the Spring without injuries is just near impossible. Everyone just needs to stop quoting the 2023 SSS stats because they are just not that meaningful even on defense which regressed some in 2024. He was a 0.7 WAR player last year in 363 PA. That is the base he needs to improve upon. He just was not that good last year.

[zambonir]

Ironically I see his 2024 as being similar to Castellanos's 2024. They were both more like the players they need to be in the second half after especially putrid April/May starts (for Rojas, in the field too when that was supposed to be his strength). But Rojas's .674 OPS + great defense still was not enough for the Phillies to believe, both when they got Hays and now. Nick's .839 and poor defense was. That is a choice they are making though you can argue neither player stopped the team from having a great offense (and winning at an insane pace when they weren't producing, less so when they were). I believe they were both around -1.0 WAR out of the gate, and had to play much better to get back to where they wound up on the year.

With Kepler only signed for one year and Schwarber's deal up there is still a path for Rojas. Next year's OF is not going to be Rojas, Crawford, Marsh or Rojas, Crawford, Castellanos. At lot can happen between now and then.

[andyb]

I am not against Rojas as a player or really positive about Castellanos. It is just realistic to look at the roles on this roster assuming Castellanos is going to play 150+ games a year. I hope they sub for him defensively more and get him a rest day every now and then, but it is really going to take poor performance over several months (into June) for his role to change substantially.

So the bigger questions in the OF are more about how well Kepler hits (and whether he has big enough platoon splits so he only plays against RHP). Whether Marsh can hit lefties a little more. And whether Schwarber plays the field more often. Those are the immediate variables to consider. I think Rojas and Wilson (or whomever wins the last roster spot) will play against LHP, but that might be dictated as much by how Kepler and Marsh hit than whatever Wilson or Rojas do.

[zambonir]

Dinner at the Harpers' house?

Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola missed Monday’s workout with food poisoning, but Thomson said they are both “feeling better.”

[BostonRoss]

I hope they’re not drinking raw milk

[zambonir]

Well yeah that was my suggestion. Harper still seems to be plugging it but he also featured grass-fed Maple Hill in his recent Tik Tok which is just standard pasteurized supermarket stuff.

[zambonir]

Gelb suggests that Marsh (who had an .867 OPS against lefties in limited PAs after August 1) should just play every day to finally see if he can do it, which would further marginalize Rojas and leads to this suggestion:

• Edmundo Sosa’s outfield adventure this spring will include center field, Thomson said. Sosa is working with the infielders most days but is dedicating some practice time to the outfield group. If Sosa can prove he’s capable in the outfield this spring, that could prompt the Phillies to carry a different bench bat over Rojas. Something to monitor.

Seems unlikely they'd actually want Sosa to make CF starts though. If they really wanted Rojas to play every day in AAA they could add Mercado.

[andyb]

I wonder if they are a little shaky on Wilson getting a backup roster spot. He seems a decent bat against LHP and already has the OF experience that Sosa does not to go along with his ability to be a second backup in the infield.

If they actually did leave Rojas in the minors I guess Sosa could be a better CF potentially than Wilson. Just not guaranteed. Rojas in the minors would open it up to an extra bench bat noting that Clemens (who would have a role subbing for Bohm occasionally) is out of options.

[zambonir]

For sure Wilson's option might leave him on the fringe at least to start. Rojas as your 4th OF and RHB, Clemens as the LHB who is more of an IF. Or Mercado instead of Wilson and Clemens as the guy you hope gets a big PH regardless of platoon side. I don't think they would let Wilson near CF, they never played Hays there even though he has (and so has Kepler). Stevenson played it some last year IIRC. Of course they also had Pache. Mercado has been good defensively in CF over his career.

From the story below:

“My mindset is there’s some strategy to it for regular season,” Thomson said. “Spring training, there’s guys that are fighting for a job, a Wes Wilson, those guys that are really battling for that last spot. If you need to use it in the first inning, go ahead and use it. If they’re going to punch you out and you think it’s a ball, use it.”

Phillies will get their first look at robot umps in spring games: ‘There is some...

[allentown]

Or it could simply be a continuation of the Phillies attempt to emulate the Dodgers success with fairly extreme positional flexibility among several position players.

[zambonir]

I assume you are being sarcastic given the limited success stories there. But really this is nothing with nothing, standard utility IF stuff (Cesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis and Michael Martinez all played CF a few times, and Bruntlett the OF). And they said all the same stuff last year about Sosa (CF in spring training, LF after Turner got healthy) without it ever happening.

[Austinfan]

You want guys to have this flexibility in case of emergency, break glass and put Sosa in the OF.
Say Castellanos got injured in the 6th inning after you pinched hit with Marsh.

I wouldn't read much more into it, with a 5 man bench, bench players have to play multiple positions.

[BostonRoss]

I like having Rojas on the bench since he has some skills that other players, including starters, don't have--namely defense and speed.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't read much more into it, with a 5 man bench, bench players have to play multiple positions.

A four man bench, even! (And one of them is a catcher.)

I think it's pretty likely Rojas is the 4th OF and the truth is in a true CF emergency they should probably just play Kepler or Turner (with Wilson in LF or Sosa or Stott at SS). But they also tried Kingery and Dalton Guthrie in CF. Even Nick Maton got 10 games at the corner OF spots in 2022. It's just part of defensive utility guy's job.

Assuming good health and no changes to the 40 I guess we could bet on which is more likely, Kyle Schwarber playing multiple games at 1B or Sosa getting even one start in CF.

[Austinfan]

About even. Sosa is more likely to play 3B and Bohm moving to 1B to rest Harper.
Unless Rojas is optioned, Sosa will only play CF in an emergency. They'd probably try Wilson first if he makes the team.

[zambonir]

They wouldn't try Wilson, they'd use Kepler and play Wilson in LF. An actual IL injury to Kepler or Marsh and Mercado probably comes up.

Hey we have another guy with CF experience, the 1B

[zambonir]

Didn't see that one coming

Phillies will give former prospect Kelly Dugan ‘a second chance’ with spring...

This is really just for a documentary he's been making with Mike Tollin, who has that kind of juice.

[andyb]

It helps to have a filmmaker father. 1180 OPS last year in Grand Junction but not sure the league quality is that good and altitude probably helped.

[zambonir]

Yeah I'm sure if Dugan played for Clearwater exclusively he'd be great. Pioneer League used be low A, perhaps it's a tick better now if they have more Indy vet types.

If he just stays in camp for a week or is actually signed to a minor league deal as a AAAA guy, the director gets his ending/extra scenes. And if he goes 0-4 in his only game in ST they also get their ending.

[allentown]

I remember watching Dugan at Reading and know what an excellent season he had in the lower minors at age 21. He played well at Reading, not nearly as well as he did at Lakewood but quite well. He couldn't seem to stay healthy. I think it something of a con to talk of a 'comeback'. He never made the majors and basically had 2 plus have seasons in AA (one in Reading, once outside Phillies org) and two okay AA half season. A big letdown after how good he was a Lakewood. He's 34 now and hasn't played in the official minor leagues since he was 26. I was a Phillies Today subscriber at the time and after following his Lakewood year in A ball couldn't wait to see him at Reading. We did see him once in Lakewood. I think he was a real talent.