Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[Taudawg]

If we expect the Phillies to stay under the third tier CBT without a trade or two, the team is going to be much of same. They'll replace a couple departing relievers with a couple relievers and add an outfielder marginally better to or equal to Hays. 2024 was a great season that ended in disappointment, but it is also unlikely repeatable. The Braves back at full strength will be favorites to win the East, and the Mets have the deepest pockets and lots of CBT space to acquire improvements. Every NL team except the Marlins and Rockies will expect to contend next year. The Phillies will have to trade away something of value in order to make enough space to add a difference making player(s), OR they have to spend beyond the third tier.

The fans would hate it, but I might just run it back without signing any FAs and see where things stand in July.

[andyb]

If we expand it to include a right handed hitting left fielder, does that improve our options?

Here is the full MLB Rumors preview. Certainly Teoscar Hernandez would fit the "bat for hire" mode. Dodgers can probably pay him more though. Tyler O'Neill is the other starting quality right-handed LF and he offers more defense and much less consistency and health.

Previewing The 2024-25 MLB Free Agent Class: Corner Outfield

[Taudawg]

Teoscar for certain takes them into the 3rd tier of CBT. He made 23.5 this year. O'Neill probably does as well. Both strike out a ton. It's not my money, but going into the 3rd tier of CBT with an aging team feels like a rabbit hole that results in no championships and a long rebuild.

[Austinfan]

Given that Crawford and Ricones are good candidates to push for PT in 2026, do they want another longer term OF contract?

[zambonir]

I think there is definitely some pressure to not run it back (and placate fans like Ed, who is hardly in the minority and which also includes a lot of media).

The team is probably still good enough to run it back, but you'd also be betting on the older players not declining, the younger players who didn't improve enough doing so (along with Bohm having an equally good year), the other NL East teams not being greater competition, and the rotation staying healthy. Those are all big asks.

But free agency might not be the answer, and simply filling the hole in LF might not be either. A trade or two seems more likely, whether that means boldly moving on from one of the younger players or finding a way to unload Nick, or both.

[EDmuch]

I think it is a bit over optimistic to assume both Crawford and Rincones will arrive by 2026 ready to be contributing major leaguers. And Crawford, when he arrives, is more likely to be a candidate to replace Rojas and become what the Phils hoped Rojas would become. When it comes to a power bat corner outfielder Rincones is more likely to be replacing Castellanos in 2027.

[EDmuch]

So there is still going to be a need to obtain more offense from left field next year. I do agree, however, that that list of available FAs's this off-season seems rather limited. A trade, with Rincones as the bait, may be the only answer.

[andyb]

Not sure Rincones gets you much.

[xogfog]

I think Bohm has to go in the trade for a LF bat and Sosa or another inexpensive 3B option would hold the fort until Miller is ready.

[EDmuch]

Yeah, I could see a decision to move on from Bohm. as part of a trade.

[bkox]

I think Bohm has to go in the trade for a LF bat

Bohm had a .779 OPS in 2024. (6th among all MLB 3rd basemen)

There were only 16 OFers in all of MLB with a higher OPS in 2024. (there may be more if you qualify with less ABs)

Trading Bohm for a LF straight up is probably just going to get worse overall production.

[zambonir]

Bohm, Marsh, Stott and Rojas could all be available for the right deal/return. Stott still strikes me as having the highest/longest shelf life (with even average offense he's a 3 WAR player already) though I'd rather see a cheap glove-first guy at 2B than 3B. Subtracting Bohm and adding a LF does lose you some offense w/o a second move.

Suarez is actually the most sensible person to trade for a starting-caliber position player if you're not sure you're going to extend him.

With any of the above it has to be someone really good coming back, without having to also throw in a top prospect. If they are still interested in Crochet or Robert (another guy with the same offensive game as everyone else the Phillies already have) or players like them, vets with increasing salaries and short control windows won't get it done.

[andyb]

They really need to evaluate whether Rojas is worth playing. 0.7 WAR this year in a little more than half a season of playing time. The defense can be better (there were mistakes in the first half), but the offense is just not acceptable. I know a 601 OPS is not too far from the 650 we all thought would make him a plus regular, but it is the OBP component that is not acceptable. A .279 OBP just does not cut it and even though the second half was better, a 301 OBP on his good split does not give one confidence. His 650 OPS really needs to be something like a 270/310/340 triple slash and he is not close to that. Any attempt at power just invites too much swing and miss.

The offseason strategy is much different if we decide that Rojas does not have a mostly full time job. It probably would be good for him to play in the Dominican League this winter. He needs playing time to work on his offense. Kind of wish the minor league stint this year was longer.

[bkox]

270/310/340

I think we are forgetting how much offense or at least batting average has dropped. 14 Outfielders in all of MLB that had enough PAs to qualify for the batting title hit .270.

The 310 OBP though would be 41st.

[zambonir]

Certainly Rojas needs to be better. He had a .674 OPS in the second half, with most of the better production coming in Aug and Sep rather than after his demotion (which was still in the first half). .303 OBP in second half. I do think you need to write off his poor start (defensively as well) but that doesn't change the question: should he be in AAA, on the bench/short side of platoon, or the everyday CF? Obviously if Marsh is no longer the primary LF that affects Rojas too.

[xogfog]

Rojas is what I remember in the 70's when I grew up watching baseball as a light hitting 8 hole hitter (usually the shortstop back then) defensive stalwart. He is the 9 hole hitter with the DH. Not everybody in the lineup can be a masher. I would like to see his OBP get better, but again, you can't have an all star at every position.

He might stick out more because you are not getting great hitting out of the other outfielders.

[zambonir]

I was fine with the Phillies sticking with Rojas, but they didn't seem to be, even after Pache was no longer there to take some of that playing time. Going with Hays against RHP seemed to be as much about them being down on Rojas as high on Hays, and even when Hays was out they chose to give Stevenson a little run in CF.

In the end Nick and Marsh also weren't bad, at all (albeit only against RHP in Marsh's case and only offensively in Nick's case). The overall mediocre showing by the Phillies OF included Nick and Rojas's first two months as well as Merrifield and Pache.

Marsh put up a 3.1 BBWAR in just 476 PAs. Santander was 2.9 in 665. LF was really not the problem in and of itself but with Bohm and Turner not producing at a high level in the second half, JT's days as that kind of hitter done, and Stott also a disappointing bat, it's an easy place to point.

[xyzabc25]

I agree the outfield is an important area to address this off-season. I also think the Phillies need to begin to turn the page on the existing roster. I'm not talking about dismantling the roster but instead making sure that any steps taken will produce long-term benefits. What that does not mean is repeating move such as Austin Hays, Carlos Estevez, Brandon Marsh as examples. With that in mind here are four candidates that I would vigorously pursue. Stats are 2024 season.FRV = fielding run value.
Jackson Merrill SDP CF age 21 130 wRC+ FRV 10
Brenton Doyle COL CF age 26 wRC+ 97 FRV 15
Steven Kwan CLE LF age 27 wRC+ 131 FRV 6
Jarred Duran BOS LF/CF age 26 wRC+ 129 FRV 12
These are the type of building block players the Phillies need. Will they be difficult to obtain. Absolutely, almost impossible. However, I would rather have any one of them on my roster over the already-being-ballyhooed phenom Jaun Soto.

[BaseballCat]

I was thinking about going after Kwan the other day. Not sure what he would cost as I think he has three more years of control. I think I would offer anything besides Painter and Miller. I was also thinking the other day if having Soto for a year would have put us over the top in this year’s playoffs. San Diego got many players for Soto, but nothing like the package they gave up for him. Are there players like him that we can get for a year to push for another WS sooner than later?

[phillychuck]

Marsh isn't a problem. He was 2.5 fWAR in 475 ABs. He needs to be used less vs lefties of course, but that's not his fault. He's still pretty cheap, too.

Resolving the "rotation" in CF and LF would help this team a lot, and I think Marsh is at least part of the solution.

Hays, Rojas, Clemens, Wilson, etc will have to step up or be replaced. It would help if Casty were a 140 OPS monster in RF, but he's not, nor will he be in the future in all likelihood. It would also help if Justin Crawford becomes a 120 OPS high OBP CF who can play regularly, but that's something you can't count on for 2025. And Miller is one or two years away even if he's as good as we hope.

They need more production out of the OF and out of catcher. I'm interested to see how DD proceeds.