Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[phillychuck]

One of the major problems with Casty right now is that his perceived value (by his teammates) is much, much higher than a replacement level (at best) RF. He is a 'star' at some level to Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Realmuto, etc... If the Phils trade him or try to reduce his role significantly they face rebellion from the troops. I think they are stuck with playing him 150+ games if he's healthy. That is the practical situation. Ballplayers don't believe in WAR. And they see him make good plays at the limit of his range, so they don't trust the defensive stats, either.

Takes a really strong manager to deal with that, and Rob isn't a strong-personality manager.

We have dug ourselves into a hole, and we ain't gettin' out easily.

[BaseballCat]

Cleveland has traded people in the past when they become too expensive. Would they do it this early? I would not give Painter, but I would consider Crawford in the right package for Kwan.

[Austinfan]

If Ricones/Crawford are ready mid-season, a platoon with Castellanos would be a nice way to break them in.
Castellanos might have value for a team that needs a DH who can hit.

[BaseballCat]

Four gold glove finalists for the Phillies - Harper, Stott, Marsh and Wheeler

2024 MLB Gold Glove finalists: Yankees' Juan Soto, Phillies' Bryce Harper among...

[VoteForKalas]

We could not trade Rollins, Hamels, Utley or Howard either because of perceived clubhouse issues.

The Phillies hopefully have learned the lessons from that irresponsible and nonsensical approach this time.

What needs to be guiding light is winning and fielding a team capable of maximizing our chances to win a WS trophy. Everything else is noise.

So if that means trading a starting player, so be it. DD has a mission like everyone else in the organization and that is to win.

Players will get over losing a teammate if it is part of a rational and comprehensive plan and it helps the team be better. That is the bottom line - this team has flaws that are NOT new just this season and it is time for DD to address them.

That includes not only all the OF positions, but also the pen and bench along with the offenses approach at the plate.

The issues are not only having to play Schwarber at only DH, but playing Casty in RF, Turner at SS and putting too much on Realmuto. We have several overpaid players who are not performing to expectations and that is unacceptable. They need to be pushed and guided to improve during the off-season and be reminded nothing is guaranteed. Urgency needs to be clearly communicated to everyone in the organization; the window is closing and only consistent development and better performance will keep it open.

[zambonir]

I don't think fallout in the clubhouse is an obstacle to trading Castellanos. His salary and performance is. Including the good parts of his performance in that he's not automatically easily replaced. But if they have a clear path to acquire a new corner OF bat, by all means they should consider it (and Marsh/Hays would look pretty good in RF if there was a new LF with a big bat).

And this was still obviously a very good team, especially when you factor in the performance of Ranger, Walker and the other fringe pitchers (i.e they really were a 100-win quality club if they'd been prioritizing wins in the last month). The NLDS loss doesn't change that anymore than it meant the Braves were a bad team in 2022 or 2023. But as time marches on and the window closed they need to be proactive. Some things can probably wait until the deadline (maybe someone like Kwan or Kyle Tucker is available then if their teams are faltering) but those moves also cost you.

I don't really see Rincones or Crawford as big factors in 2025 for any reason other than injuries (much as it was for Rojas in '23).

[flyers19rw]

Then the inmates are running the asylum. This isn't a social club; it's a business where the whole has not matched the sum of its parts. Time to break it up. Detroit has been rumored to want a RH power bat for the OF. That might be a great fit for Nick. He came up there and might not mind a return tour with the Tigers. If JT wants to stay in Philly, he's going to need to lighten his work load and take a cut in pay. DD may say today that o changes are on the horizon but that's just playing poker. If he runs it back, the Phillies are a third place team in the East and out of the POs next season. I can't see Middleton playing that route.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I don’t get all the Castellanos hate popping up in this thread. Yes, he’s got his flaws and it was a signing that was questionable due to the redundancy with Schwarber. But I think Nick was our second best hitter in the second half of the season behind Harper, and we probably would have gone 0-3 versus the Mets in the playoffs if not for his contributions in game #2. Realistically, the Phillies best chance to compete next season is to run it back with most of the same players, unless they want to exceed the next CBT threshold. Getting rid of Castellanos, which will most likely require picking up a good portion of his remaining salary, is going to make the team less competitive next year IMHO.

[phillychuck]

Realistically, in pro sports, the inmates (players) ARE running the asylum to some extent. Pro teams don't trade away players who have high perceived value on the team, they especially don't pay to dump them. This is particularly true in baseball, although basketball has these issues, too. (Right here in Philly the Sixers couldn't dump Harris, at least partly because he was a valued member of a contending team.)

Hockey not so much because of contract-to-value issues with a tight cap and an old-school mindset, and football teams trade good players all the time for cap flexibility (Haason Reddick). Today, it's as much the players' team as it is the owners', especially in baseball. Ask LeBron and Harper and Embiid if they have say in personnel decisions...

[zambonir]

They don't pay Dombrowski because it's easy. Honestly I think they could run it back with minimal changes and still be more or less a post-season lock (wild card at least). The factors that led to the Mets making the playoffs and the Braves almost missing them were not due to those teams making either great or poor off-season moves and it's hardly certain both teams will be better next year (if anything the Braves are more likely to bounce back). Ditto what happened to the DBacks, Astros, Rangers and Indians (two teams that failed, one team that's fading, one that is still playing which nobody expected) this year. You just never know.

But, having tried and failed to sign Yamamoto last year, having essentially failed three times with a platoon LF (doing nothing in 23, Merrifield, Hays) and supposedly having serious interest in both Crochet and a CF upgrade last deadline, I doubt they will stand pat.

And I don't think "hate" really has to come into it. You want to trade players while they still have some value and before you are stuck with them... if you can. Nick is hardly the only player they should consider moving on from. The others are all younger and cheaper and would fetch a better return. With Nick you'd just want some prospects and to free up $10 million towards a new guy.

[xyzabc25]

NOTE FROM MOD (PC): OUR NEW USER HAD 4 PENDING POSTS THAT ALL CAME IN TOGETHER BELOW. TRY TO MAKE SENSE OF WHO HE OR SHE IS RESPONDING TO.

I think the likelihood of getting any of them is pretty slim. I would take Doyle and plug him into CF every day. His batting splits are .257 vs L and .262 vs R. We need two-way OF help in the worst way. All of these players are already proving themselves on the bis stage. I'm not sure we can expect Crawford or Miller to produce these kinds of numbers. I would only pursue players who I think want to be Phillies over the long-term who I am also willing to pay at or above market to retain.

[xyzabc25]

Castellanos can be traded if the Phillies are willing to buy down maybe one of the two remaining years on his contract. I wince when a ball is driven into the corner because Casty is so slow, and often clumsy, he will play it into a triple or an inside-the-park HR.

[xyzabc25]

Congrats to them.

[xyzabc25]

Agreed. Painter performed well in his first Arizona Fall league test. If healthy he's a rotation piece in 2025. Ranger Suarez could bring a solid relief pitcher in a trade this winter. Crawford or Miller plus another prospect in the below 10 category might get a Kwan trade done.

[VoteForKalas]

My takeaway from DD's end of season presser is:

Nothing major will be done. Run it back and hope for better performance.

Some of this may be window dressing (pun intended) and not totally indicative of what DD really thinks or what might be done, but he certainly comes across as someone who is satisfied with the status quo with little urgency to change direction.

Schwarber: 31
Turner: 31
Harper: 31
Casty: 32
Realmuto: 33

Glad to hear they have a specific development plan for Rojas' offensive approach again and also a detailed program for Walker to work on.

[zambonir]

Dave's not always known for showing his cards. I guess they did on Turner (or some SS) but the rest of those '23 moves (Walker, Soto, Kimbrel) were pretty surprising when more modest acquisitions were expected. It also surprised me just how high they went on Yamamoto even if he was never that interested.

I gotta imagine WIP is full of people bashing Thomson and Long right now. I'll watch the replay of the presser later.

Over the previous two seasons this team rode out a lot of time without Harper and then without Hoskins all of last year, but with Realmuto plainly not a top offensive player anymore and Turner wearing down this year, the margin for error is thin. At least they finally figured out a way to keep JT under 100 games; will they stick with Marchan and Stubbs next year (since Marchan is always hurt and Stubbs can be optioned) or sign whole new back-up?

[Austinfan]

DD is sort of in a corner, went all in and came up short.
Now his core is aging, but his youth is 2-3 years away.
Doesn't have the cap room for a big splash unless they want major penalties (not just fiscal, but hurt the farm).

He'll run it back with tweaks b/c he has few viable options.
But Painter, Crawford, maybe Ricones might be able to contribute post-All Star break, a lot of teams like this make runs when a couple young players come up and fill holes.

Maybe one second tier move, and a bunch of Hoffman/Ruiz type ST invites.

[zambonir]

They will take the development penalties if they have to. It would only be for one year (with JT and Schwarber off the books next year, followed by Casty and Walker). You can either spend money in free agency and take that hit, or spend prospect capital in trade (whether in the off-season or at the deadline). I'd rather drop 10 places in the first-round than trade one of our Top 5 prospects.

[allentown]

Yes, this is what I mean by the Phillies being a collection of coddled stars, rather than a team -- a team which makes decisions based upon increasing the odds of winning, not ceding control to mutually-supporting fading stars.

[VoteForKalas]

I think Turner is the under the radar problem.

They paid him like a super star and he has not been close to that so far.

He was overall better in 2024 than 2023, but still a .807 OPS is.not enough for what should be expected. At 31, one has to surnise his peak is past and we'll be paying mostly for his decline.

I understand this is the nature of long term deals for most MLB FA because you're paying for what they have already done, not for what he will do during the contract, but it is possible to mitigate risk and select players who have skill sets that age better.