Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

[Callison]

Bader, overshadowed by Duran, didn't take long to show that he's here to contribute. All-world catch today. LOOKS like he can hit some, too - he looks like he's way into weights and takes some powerful cuts. LOOKS like he has a decent eye, too.

Big series against the Rangers, IMHO. The level of baseball seemed really high with all kinds of great D. Like the Tigers, they LOOK ready to playoff and weren't missing their best player, a good measure of how the Phils are playing.

The Phils' pen looked GREAT. Roles are being assigned these days and the pitchers are fitting into them. Still a couple question marks over there, but the core has been dominant.

[phillychuck]

Bader is strong and athletic, but he does not have a decent eye, that’s his flaw as a batter, he chases a lot of pitches and doesn’t draw walks. Maybe thee Phils can work on that...

[EDmuch]

After reading about the chaos in the Mets pitching staff, we are starting to look pretty strong.

[zambonir]

They led the majors with a 2.78 rotation ERA around mid-June. Since then probably close to the worst in MLB.

[Philsmania]

Last year, the Mets gambled with a rotation filled with bounce-back candidates and the gamble paid off. They didn't really do a lot to bolster the rotation in the offseason. Going into the season, I really thought their rotation was going to be a problem. Perhaps I was right after all.

[bigegypt0417]

So they aren't the superior organization?

Mets like making a splash but it's hard to build a complete team that way...

[kmc1019]

If someone had told me at the start of the season that Taijuan Walker's ERA in the major leagues would be nearly 2 runs lower than Andrew Painter's in the minors......

Credit to Walker for the moxie he shows out there without the best stuff. As is the case tonight, he has regularly put the Phillies in a position to win.

[EDmuch]

Six games up.

[bkox]

Phillies now have the 2nd best record in MLB

[EDmuch]

Some credit has to be given to DD’s strategy of maximizing starting pitching

[biggsphils]

Predicting Wheeler goes on 15 day DL when next pitcher is activated (Nola or Alvarodo) something not right with him

[EastFallowfield]

Fangraphs on underperforming and overperforming pitching staffs:

The Underperforming and Overachieving Pitching Staffs of 2025

Phils are right at .000 difference, doing almost exactly as expected.

The top two teams doing better than expected: Rangers and Reds.

[EastFallowfield]

and this from their story on the worst moments of the Mets recent losing streak...

The 10 or 11 Worst Plays of the Mets’ Current Losing Streak

[phillychuck]

I think 8% or so is low for the Mets. They are better than they have been playing, especially their pitching. That would be one time in 12 they would come back, I would think it would be higher than that, but maybe not...

[zambonir]

That just seems like our human nature (and negativity) to think that. We saw what the Phillies did to the Mets in 2007 and we also saw the Mets beat us 7 of the last 11 times in the second half last season (including playoffs) so we imagine them catching up. But the combination of the Mets going on a run, the Phillies slumping and the Mets dominating the remaining head-to-head games is still slim. Even if it actually happens.

[EastFallowfield]

The way the Mets have been wearing out their bullpen gives me hope that their odds will stay low.

[phillychuck]

Nice not to have to worry about the Braves this year...

I do think the models tend to slightly underestimate the chances of outlier events, because they don’t take into account human emotion, both positive and negative. If a team gets on a run, emotion tends to push it in the direction of the run. Confidence and lack of confidence play a huge role in sports.

[Matt_Winkelman]

We are very much into the "it is getting late early" and the math just not being good for certain teams. The Phillies and Mets each have 44 games left.

If the Phillies continue on their current .585 winning percentage (95 win pace) they will go 26-18 over that period. The Mets would need to go 32-12 or a .727 winning percentage or 118 win pace.

If the Phillies scuffle and go .500 the rest of the way they go 22-22 and the Mets would need to go 28-16 or a .636 winning percentage or 103 win pace.

Unless the Phillies just totally collapse the Mets essentially have to go from scuffling to the best team in baseball in order to catch them. Is that chance 8%? I don't know but it is starting to feel very unlikely.

[EastFallowfield]

The emotions around the Mets are really different than this time last year. Last year everything they did down the stretch and in the playoffs was their version of our 2022 season. Losing in the NLCS was fine cause they 'overachieved'.

Now they have higher expectations (especially with all their time in 1st place this year) and they aren't living up to those, so it is indeed getting late early for them.

Here's the lede of the Amazin' Avenue morning post, to illustrate what it's like up here:

The Mets unfortunately return to playing baseball tonight when they face the Braves at Citi Field to begin a three-game series.

[zambonir]

I'm looking forward to the games against the Mets for a playoff-type, rivalry atmosphere. I wouldn't even hate facing them again in October. But right now we have the luxury of focusing on seeding/avoiding the WC as much as winning the NL East.

And at the same time, we have fonder memories of the two post-seasons where they didn't avoid the WC round.