Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

[tom81]

I disagree; protection has been valuable to Schwarber this season. Look at his OPS by month and by far his worst month was June when Harper wasn't in the lineup to protect him.
Split BA OBP SLG OPS
April/March 0.245 0.398 0.538 0.936
May 0.288 0.403 0.644 1.047
June 0.214 0.347 0.408 0.756
July 0.264 0.368 0.725 1.093
August 0.375 0.412 1 1.412

And also compare their time in each batting order slot, Schwarber has more AB's hitting 1st and 2nd than he does hitting 3rd and 4th and Harper has most of all his ABs hitting 3rd.

[zambonir]

Yeah the RHBs [including Bader] and Kepler aren't going to turn into something they're not [or someone they were three years ago]. But when Harper and Schwarber are hot and the pitching is at its best they are a championship caliber team. 9-6 now since the break and that's with Wheeler struggling by his standards in two Ls, plus one poor start by Sanchez. It just has to be in alignment when it counts. The more power they have the better they do at other aspects of the offensive game too.

[phillychuck]

I don’t know. The image below is Schwarber’s OPS by lineup position. The only place he has struggled this year is batting first, when he honestly has the most protection.

There really is almost no difference between 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. To me he hits just as well in 3rd and 4th holes where his protection is mediocre.

[Austinfan]

His problem with Harper out may have been as much the pressure to carry the team (trying to do too much) as lack of protection.
Or he's just a streaky hitter who has a similar pattern over most of his career irregardless of protection.

[zambonir]

That's interesting. Especially since he did not lead off even one time in June. Hit second the entire month except for three times 4th and once 3rd.

No doubt this is all a lesson in the folly of the monthly cherry-pick [which I certainly love too]. But I do think that while protection is largely a myth in the context of an overall line-ups, it also seems likely he - and everyone else - did not see nearly as many fastballs without Bryce in the line-up.

And of course he has a great career OPS as a lead-off hitter, though it's still only his third-best [fourth if you include a small number batting 8th].

[BostonRoss]

Schwarber is a streaky hitter who is on a roll now (OPS of 1.260 since the ASB). Of course he will cool down at some point, as he did in June. I think most hitters are somewhat streaky ("seeing (or not seeing) the ball well"). I suspect that's just a statistical likelihood.

[zambonir]

Yup they're all streaky, that's why the playoffs is mostly about the right lucky cluster of hitters getting hot for the right two weeks, or about having a couple of guys step up if a couple of others fall off. '23 and '24 NLDS Nick Castellanos might be the greatest hitter in Phillies history. '23 NLCS, not so much. Don't really expect any of them to be enough if Harper and Schwarber struggle, but need one or two of them to augment Harper and Schwarber.

And of course when you are a great player your highs are higher than everyone else, and your lows not as low either. Schwarber's worst OPS month would still be second on the team right now [because Trea wasn't good in July, and invisible so far in August].

[tom81]

True not much difference for him with lineup position. The big difference is the lack of Harper in the lineup when he didn’t hit so well and the other teams pitched him more carefully as he was the only one in the lineup that scared them. June

[andyb]

[andyb]

Alvarado now has 2 weeks to rehab before August 19th.

[zambonir]

Certainly not hard to see how you want to pitch him. As few fastballs and sinkers as possible, as many breaking balls as possible. With or without Harper in front of him, imagine what he'd get with a #5 hitter people actually feared. Bohm made them pay behind Harper when he was hot last year. Casty and JT could do it when they were better hitters.

[Austinfan]

I'd like to see the LHP/RHP breakdown, bet the sliders are from LHPs. He does chase them.

[andyb]

RHPs don't throw many sliders to LH bats, so that question really does not mean too much.

[zambonir]

Well, they probably can't be that many, since 319 of his PAs are against RHP to only 179 against LHP. And he has a 1.044 OPS against LHPs [.935 RHP]. If what Andy says is correct and they are almost all from LHPs, he's actually still getting his pitch to hit.

[andyb]

If what Andy says is correct and they are almost all from LHPs, he's actually still getting his pitch to hit.

Only 75 plate appearances ended with a slider and those are not all against LHPs but most probably are. Though in the majority of LHP plate appearances he is probably checking his swing and getting a fastball at some point. The slider can be the one pitch to get him out while also being a pitch often not in the strike zone that helps him get ahead in the count to get another pitch.

[zambonir]

There is probably some value to Schwarber getting to watch Harper's ABs, just as Harper likes to hit third so he can see the pitcher a couple of times. But both it and the concept of protection are incremental, not huge differences.

Meanwhile: Ross back, Johnson down.

[andyb]

Schwarber has a high OBP so second is really not the worst place for him. His RBI count suggests the back of the lineup (Marsh, Stott, Kepler, etc.) are getting on base at a decent clip relative to other backs of lineup (other than Rojas). So while we don't have much power there, they are contributing to the RBI count.

[zambonir]

Yeah I don't think it really matters where he hits, it just seemed a quirk of the June slump that he was moved from 4th to 2nd in Harper's absence. And then he just never moved back, and got going again. And of course being in same line-up as Harper makes everyone better.

23 of his 40 HRs are solo shots. Four of those while leading off a game and 10 while leading off an inning [including those four, obviously].

[schillingfan]

The biggest thing I see (flawed non-analytical perception) is that Schwarzenegger is not swinging at the low and away off the plate pitchers from left handlers. Ditto Harper when he is swinging good like now.

[phillychuck]

Did that auto-correct or are you proposing a nickname?