Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

[Austinfan]

If Anthony keeps kitting, he's going to be a candidate for a DH platoon next year.

The problem with Schwarber is he got into shape, extended his career a few years but the cliff is looming.

[phillychuck]

The Phillies will now be having the same problem Howie and the Eagles had in 2018...lots of franchise-important players, beloved* by the fan base, reaching their inevitable decline. Schwarber, Realmuto, even Harper and Turner. It’s going to be tough to figure out which ones to retain. To say nothing of Wheeler and Nola...

*Casty not beloved... !!

[zambonir]

Casty actually is pretty beloved, if you attend the games. He is likeable and colorful and has had a ton of big hits (not to mention his Internet cult following and his kid). Plenty of fans also parrot the announcers and the eye test (and Thomson) to say he's not so bad out there and have never heard of OAA or care about WAR. But nobody's going to want him to re-sign either.

I don't think there's really any sentiment involved with any of it. It is legit hard to decide if Schwarber and JT are the correct options at their position for a few more years, though of course it depends on what they might sign for too. Suarez too even though I personally think that's already a fait accompli. And they've already taken the ability to make any tough decisions about Harper and Turner off the table, except about role and playing time eventually. Ditto Nola. (If Wheeler doesn't retire, he'll start taking one-year deals I reckon).

Marsh is fine as our LF, but he's also not our LF. So the options are stick with what we've got (plus a RH LF platoon bat as ever, possibly Kemp), play Rojas in CF more often and Casty in RF less (to make playing time for Kepler), or give Crawford a look (but then you still have too many LHBs with limited offensive pop). The ideal thing would be to just trade Kepler for a RHB. But he probably doesn't get you an everyday player.

[BostonRoss]

The Phillies will now be having the same problem Howie and the Eagles had in 2018...lots of franchise-important players, beloved* by the fan base, reaching their inevitable decline. Schwarber, Realmuto, even Harper and Turner. It’s going to be tough to figure out which ones to retain. To say nothing of Wheeler and Nola...

*Casty not beloved... !!

Reminds me of the Phillies in 2012

[zambonir]

For sure but I think the difference is Schwarber is clearly at the top of his game and JT is still among the top 1/3 of catchers in the game. Whereas that team's Harper had already been in decline for several seasons and you could see the three 33 year-olds (Chase, Rollins, Ruiz) heading into decline if not decrepitness.

And yet - had the pitching not broken down (or been adequately replaced) and had they not salary-dumped Pence and even Vic - the 2012-2014 Phillies still could have won. In 2014 the WARS at age 35 were Chase 3.7, Jimmy 4.1 and Chooch 3.3. Plus 36 year-old Marlon Byrd, 3.6, and a 2.8 WAR from Papelbon and 2.0 from Giles It was the rotation besides Hamels and Howard/Asche/Dom/Revere keeping that team from doing better.

[allentown]

Yes. Let's hope it also REALLY reminds DD and Montgomery of 2012. Or 1994. Rewarding popular aging stars from the last WS team with too many years and $, in order to appease the local fans and media does not end well. And when it ends badly, the media and fans turn ugly quite fast. With overly long contracts and big piles of $ to Turner and Harper (and maybe also Nola) likely to turn south before long, today's Phillies are particularly at risk. Resign the present stars and there won't be enough $ to sign the needed younger stars. Schwarber, JT, Casty, Ranger, Bohm -- they can't afford to keep most of them. I'd keep Marsh. I'm coming around to trade Abel, hope that Painter stays healthy, and resign Ranger.

[zambonir]

Let's hope it also REALLY reminds DD and Montgomery of 2012

Probably Montgomery won't know either way.

Resign the present stars and there won't be enough $ to sign the needed younger stars.

What younger stars? We don't have any.

I don't think they are going to keep Bohm, maybe not even for 2026. Marsh and Stott don't reach free agency until 2028. But if Schwarber and JT aren't on the team in 2026 and 2027 they are going to be spending considerable money or trade assets on a new catcher and a new slugger (whether he's a DH or another position). There's still no one on the farm to fill either of those spots, even if Crawford and Miller become regulars. That still seems like a more crucial thing to focus on than Ranger given how deep the rotation already is, unless Nola's situation becomes more catastrophic.

To me the lesson of 2012 is more that if the team hadn't been cheap then they could have kept Pence, re-signed Vic (who had a couple of good years and a championship left in him) or replaced him with someone better than Ben Revere, and devoted $ to replacing Halladay and Lee and Howard, all of which they did on the cheap or out of desperation (with Burnett). That would have extended the window for 2-3 years. The current window is still open for as long as Wheeler's contract, at least. This a very different team and time.

What they will do come 2028 or 2029 if Nola, Turner and Harper are no longer stars is another story, but that's why they are better off trying to run it back with the likes of Schwarber on a 3-4 year deal rather than having to hand out seven or 10 years to one or two new free agents. Because there's still not enough help coming from the farm at the corners between now and then.

[allentown]

What younger stars? We don't have any.

Near-term position-player stars will come via free agency (or trade) just as the current aging stars were. Just like this past off-season, there won't be a FA star or near-star signing unless big contracts are shed, because the Phillies budget doesnt allow it.

[andyb]

What younger stars? We don't have any.

Well we do in the pitching rotation. Which ones we keep will be an interesting question.

[zambonir]

Well, Ranger once again looks like a star but that can still change on a dime. Luzardo also not a sure thing. Sanchez is locked up until 2030. Painter and Abel controlled too.

And there really aren't any big free agents hitting the market this off-season, which is one of the reasons why Schwarber might be expensive/long. Vladdy is already gone. Tucker is the only other top one and he might stay in Chicago. Bellinger and Bregman and Alonso are there as opt-out guys. Bichette, I don't really see him as a fit for the Phillies. Marcel Ozuna is older than Schwarber.

I can certainly see the argument for putting all your money on Ranger and the bullpen and then patching together the rest of the line-up, which might mean, let's say, Rhys Hoskins on a two-year deal and a really average tandem catcher. But then you are once again wholly reliant on Harper, Turner, Bohm and Castellanos, and without Kyle to boot.

I'd rather sign the 33-34 year-olds we know for 2-3 years then add another 30 year-old on an 8 or 10-year deal.

They should probably keep Abel as an off-season trade chip, but then you risk a fall-off or injury instead of dealing him at peak value. Of course they can also try trading from the major league roster again but that's basically Bohm or Stott or Marsh. Or Sanchez or Luzardo, if you really re-sign Ranger (obviously they aren't going to trade Sanchez though).

[Callison]

Interested to get some additional assessment of Abel yesterday. IMHO, he was just up in the zone WAY too much. In addition, when he missed, he missed in the center of the plate. Not just a matter of the Mets being better than the Marlins. He remains a project and gets slack because he's still learning a lot, but there's no hiding a really bad performance yesterday. AND there was the inability to correct himself, as he did so well against the Marlins.

Quick Loss Ross - "I know some times it's hard to say Sayonara..." no talent is not enough.

Usually there are a couple exciting trade options and a couple mere upgrade trade options for the Phils, but today there seem to be hardly any. I've read the press about Trout. I sure don't like paying him $30M until he's 39, and nobody is gonna like losing the a few of the Phils' prospects that are so surely future All Stars...BUT the addition of Trout could land the Phis a COUPLE of WS along the way. There is ONE exciting trade option. Could also see him playing only 5 or 6 innings a game - reduce the wear and tear on his delicate, aging body - get the Phils ahead when it's an offensive game and sit when it's a defensive game. No doubt he has a personal trainer by now.

If Kepler doesn't start hitting a few more out AND make more consistent solid contact by the AS break, bench him and play Kemp. With more PT, Kemp may find more power, too. Takes enormous discouragement for the Phils to admit they've made another OF mistake, but it is mounting so fast with Kepler, the moment could arrive soon.

Great game today to decide who leads the division. Last outing Luzardo was shaky, but got through 5 with a lead. Rob sent him out for the 6th anyway. The first two batters got on and eventually scored. If he's shaky again and gets through 5 with a lead, here's hoping this time Rob goes to the pen faster... anyone not named Ross or Mercado. OTOH, maybe Luzardo will pitch better in a big game. The Phils could stand it.

[allentown]

'd rather sign the 33-34 year-olds we know for 2-3 years then add another 30 year-old on an 8 or 10-year deal.

I'd give Schwarber fewer years and $ than he'll get on the open market, so I guess I'm not interested.$50 mill/yr for 2 years is as far as I'd go. He's having a great year, but I doubt he'll be good enough 3 yrs from now and there is a limit to the worth of a DH, especially on a team where Harper may be DHing 3 years from now.

To Callison: Trout would be a mistake. He has been fading badly. He produced 1.1 rWAR last season and is on a pace to do the same, or slightly worse, this season -- he's only +0.4 rWAR. so far this season. He'll make $35 million/yr. through 2030. That money can buy a lot more help than a bit more than 5 years of Trout. Even worse, he really needs to be a DH and we already have one today and likely have a different one before 2030. Trout is a big name and a Philly-area favorite, but no sane team can spend $35 million per WAR.

[Austinfan]

Well, the Mets.

[Callison]

To Callison: Trout would be a mistake. He has been fading badly.

yeah, OK - I'm desperate.

Yesterday's game mark's the high point of the season winning the series to lead the division. The Phils, Mets and Braves can all win it so the winner will be ready for post season.

[zambonir]

I don't think the Braves can win the division at this point. Doesn't mean they won't get in the playoffs, as they did last year (albeit on the last possible day).

At some point somebody is going to trade for Trout at 20 cents on the dollar, but probably not yet. He also can't even play RF at the moment.

[andyb]

Do we think that Painter gets called up if he has a good start next time out and Abel is again mediocre? I for one would be thinking about it.

[VoteForKalas]

I guess it depends on what the Phillies' planned innings limit is for Painter this season, where he stands now and whether they see him as a starter or reliever in PHL this season.

I'd give Abel more chances until Nola comes back. I agree Abel is not ready and needs more seasoning, but one bad, one mediocre start weighed against three good starts should buy him more time.

[Austinfan]

Abel is our 5th starter. What is the average 5th starter? 5.00 ERA/FIP?

[andyb]

Abel is our 5th starter. What is the average 5th starter? 5.00 ERA/FIP?

That FIP is 10.74 in his last 3 starts. The league has figured him out to some degree and he does not have the command at the moment to get better hitters out consistently. None of this should be a surprise given his minor league record.

[Philsmania]

Abel is our 5th starter. What is the average 5th starter? 5.00 ERA/FIP?

That FIP is 10.74 in his last 3 starts. The league has figured him out to some degree and he does not have the command at the moment to get better hitters out consistently. None of this should be a surprise given his minor league record.

As much as I said "sell high" on him, there may never really have been a "sell high" market with him.