Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

[zambonir]

Not coincidentally, Murphy argues that Stott is the most replaceable/upgradeable spot if the Phillies really did want to get a full-time bat. There just aren't many OFs out there who would be clear upgrades over Marsh and Kepler so long as they hold steady at 100 OPS+. Though he also notes that CF and 2B are the worst-producing positions in MLB leaguewide, and concludes there just isn't much of an upgrade to be made at 2B either. OF Platoon bat as usual and focus on the bullpen.

Determining who would be replaced if Phillies add a hitter at the trade deadline...

This is about Marsh vs. Rojas but probably applies to Nick vs. Rojas too, so long as he is also remains a 105-110 OPS+ guy. Johan is 64. Yes he still beats Nick in WAR.

The question of Marsh vs. Johan Rojas in center field should not be a thing anymore. The Phillies are 16-18 in Rojas’ starts, 25-13 in Marsh’s starts. Ooh and ahh all you want over Rojas’ highlight reel in the field. There is no amount of defense that can save as many runs as a player costs you when he has a .280 on base percentage and .587 OPS. The latter mark ranks 266th among 289 major league hitters with at least 125 plate appearances. In his last 32 games, Rojas is 8-for-55 with 16 strikeouts, four walks, and one extra base hit.

It is really too bad Crawford isn't a RHB or Kemp isn't an OF. Also, Sosa has had his usual correction (now 88 OPS+) to where you don't need to play him more, let alone in the OF.

[julio]

06/18/25 Texas Rangers traded RHP Nolan Hoffman to Philadelphia Phillies for cash.
06/18/25 Philadelphia Phillies optioned RHP Nolan Hoffman to Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

Nolan Hoffman Minor, College & Fall Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

Rangers Trade Reliever Nolan Hoffman To Phillies

[zambonir]

What is the advantage of immediately adding him to the 40? Is it just to do a nice thing for him (i.e. AAA pay bump until called up) since they have room or is there some kind of transactional reason?

[julio]

What is the advantage of immediately adding him to the 40? Is it just to do a nice thing for him (i.e. AAA pay bump until called up) since they have room or is there some kind of transactional reason?

I don't think there was any transactional need, at least not under the rules. What kind of agreement Hoffman may have had with the Rangers (he was signed as a non-roster player with a spring training invite), I do not know. There may have been an agreement about his being added to the Rangers' 40-man, or else released/traded? If so, the Phils may be honoring that?

Or, they could anticipate getting him on the reliever shuttle from Lehigh Valley. Remains to be seen.

[Austinfan]

My point with Castellanos and JT is they want to play everyday at the detriment of their performance.
Castellanos should be a platoon RF (see his splits,
2025: RC+ against LH 126, RH 98, last season 125, 98. Given his fielding, he's below replacement against RH pitching.

JT needs to play less, RC+ peaked in 2020, 2022, last three seasons 102, 109, 90.
His workload is going to impact his hitting as he ages.

[zambonir]

I think if he had an opt-out they would have just had to release him not shop him. For sure the Phillies intend to use him; seems like he still needs some work but maybe they figure his arm slot make him a good change of pace or guy for the next doubleheader or bullpen game

It is true JT and Nick could both stand to play less but not necessarily true the alternatives are good enough. Last night makes the most sense but only occasionally, not against every RHP. If the Phillies thought Rojas could do that they wouldn't have moved Marsh back to centerfield in the first place. What Nick wants is irrelevant but there's no indication the front office or manager are anywhere near platooning him.

[julio]

JT needs to play less, RC+ peaked in 2020, 2022, last three seasons 102, 109, 90.
His workload is going to impact his hitting as he ages.

His workload - and his age - already appear to be impacting his hitting. The relevant questions are "How much decline?" and "How quickly?"

[Matt_Winkelman]

Hoffman had an upward mobility clause. My understanding is that means his current team if they didn’t want to add him to the 40 sent out an email to the 29 other teams (his agent probably did as well). If a team has interest he could force his release or the team could trade him to one of those teams who then adds him to the 40.

In this case, the Phillies had an open 40 spot and he has all his options so it just costs them cash to take a look and see if he is better than say Devin Sweet.

[andyb]

Or, they could anticipate getting him on the reliever shuttle from Lehigh Valley. Remains to be seen.

They may have already decided he is better than Mercado.

[andyb]

It is true JT and Nick could both stand to play less but not necessarily true the alternatives are good enough.

This is the dilemma they are in. And why I think they will still want a short term deal with JT and they are still stuck with Castellanos for another year. He is just not going to become a platoon player when they have nothing better. And getting someone better is challenging since we don't have any obvious catchers coming up the next few years and our one OF probably replaces Marsh at some point. Otto Kemp is just not going to solve our Castellanos problem even if he might beat out Weston Wilson for that roster spot.

[Austinfan]

Not a high threshold, Mercado is all arm, not a clue how to pitch.
Just proves velocity is overrated, Phillies keep adding high velocity guys who get pounded.
Self-selection means ML hitters can hit any fastball under 100 MPH without movement and location.
That's the difference between a Wheeler 96 MPH 4 seamer high in the K-zone and a Lazardo 98 MPH 4-seamer.

Lazardo and Abel have the same problem with their changeup, if you throw 96-98, a changeup at 90-92 isn't that hard to pick up, whereas Ranger throws 92, but his changeup is 80. Movement, command and change of speeds.

[andyb]

Just proves velocity is overrated, Phillies keep adding high velocity guys who get pounded.

Why does every major league organization value velocity and why does the average keep increasing every year? You just need to stop repeating this untrue canard.

Velocity is hugely important. It is just not the only thing that is important. Changing speeds, control, command, and pitch shape are also important. Velocity is a base that makes everything better though. Maybe this will change if the rules and incentives change, but that has not happened yet.

[VoteForKalas]

It is true JT and Nick could both stand to play less but not necessarily true the alternatives are good enough.

The problem is two-fold: the Phillies have been unable to draft & develop viable alternatives and, because they pay these guys so much and have a bloated payroll otherwise, they cannot afford to sign viable alternatives either.

Until the farm system can actually produce a viable OF or C starter for the big club, that avenue is closed. And until they free up payroll and roster spots, it is going to tough to sign viable options for RF or C in FA and/or trades.

They are stuck doing what they have done, bringing in players without many options due to significant flaws and/or less talent and hoping that someone has a career year or their coaches can help them figure some things out.

Now, Realmuto is up and all I hear is that the Phillies need to extend him again. I love JT, but this just screams incompetence IMO by Phillies management. This is JT's 7th season here and we still have no one viable to replace him. At least this is only Casty's 4th season, but the Phillies ineptitude with farm hand OF has a much longer history unfortunately.

[andyb]

This is JT's 7th season here and we still have no one viable to replace him.

I would amend that a bit. We developed Logan O'Hoppe. We just traded him to hopefully fulfill a need in part BECAUSE we had JT.

No argument on the lack of development among OF. It is why we got Harper and Schwarber and Castellanos and Marsh.

[julio]

I would amend that a bit. We developed Logan O'Hoppe. We just traded him to hopefully fulfill a need in part BECAUSE we had JT.

I guess I would say that they made this trade to address a short-term need, at the cost of creating a longer-term need... which they have not, in the intervening three years, done much of anything to address. Perhaps they had visions of Marchan developing into a starting catcher, but that has always seemed a bit of a stretch?

[andyb]

I can't imagine they have ever thought of Marchan as more than a backup catcher. Stubbs too. They were the inexpensive JT backup pieces that could play decent defense and that is it.

[Austinfan]

That would have been a fine move if they had catching depth lower in the organization (4-5 years away).
And it would never have been needed if they didn't blow every OF draft pick.

[andyb]

Not rationalizing the move. Just noting we did develop a potential JT replacement. We just traded him.

[Florida_Sunshine]

And it seems to me, at the time, the thought process was that JT would last longer than we could keep Logan and to go ahead and trade him for a position of need at that time.

[Matt_Winkelman]

We are talking about Logan O’Hoppe who has a negative WAR, 8 walks to 76 strikeouts and rates out as the worst defensive catcher in baseball. I think he would be better here, but that trade was almost 3 years ago and has been a definitive Phillies win.

They don’t have catcher in the wings because they are generally bad at hitter development, but also how many starting level catchers are just waiting in the minors right now period?