Phillies Magic Number and NL Postseason Seed Thread

zambonir 2024-09-25 18:19:25 UTC #175

oh, got it, these particular games. a hurricane, even, right? (some concerts I know about were already postponed in GA). is the football stadium available? Gotta think they will try like hell to just get one in and then maybe another won't be needed by Sunday.

but I'd watch the heck out of it.

zambonir 2024-09-25 22:16:20 UTC #176

Glad this doesn't affect us really. Also means the Mets no longer have the luxury of finishing the season in Milwaukee and staying there. Would be something if these games determined the 5th seed though and then they winner had to fly west. Also messes with their pitching.

zambonir 2024-09-25 23:50:42 UTC #177

I bet Rowdy Tellez would have put Pittsburgh over on the Brewers.

zambonir 2024-09-26 00:53:54 UTC #178

Phils win, Brewers lose

el-pietro 2024-09-26 00:54:16 UTC #179

Phillies win
Brewers lose
We have the bye! All that's left is the number 1 seed and home field advantage!

bkeich 2024-09-26 01:19:14 UTC #180

Go for #1. Not kill ourselves to get it, but no reason not to play at home against the Dodgers.

Give everyone at least 1 game off. Pull starters early.

zambonir 2024-09-26 02:46:21 UTC #181

That's obviously the goal. And surely they can win two against the Nats, even on the road. Rest is up to the Dodgers. Or Padres.

But of course we still don't know that the West winner will come out of the NLDS.

The bye means there's no harm in pushing for it, but home field in the NLCS is no good if we're #1 and lose to the Padres before even getting there when the Brewers or the 6 seed might be easier. Just no way to know any of it for sure.

bkeich 2024-09-26 03:02:17 UTC #182

1 Seed Magic Number: 4.

Phillies have 3 games left, Dodgers 5. It actually is in the Dodgers hands, they can win out and there is nothing the Phillies can do. But, 1 loss and we are in the drivers seat.

xogfog 2024-09-26 08:32:59 UTC #183

Well the good news is the Yankees lost, so regardless if the Phillies finish behind the Dodgers, if the Phillies win out they would have home field advantage in the World Series.

zambonir 2024-09-26 11:39:12 UTC #184

Not sure I expect the team that just went 1-2 and 1-3 in their last two road series to win out away. We swept the Nats at home once but have lost one in DC and one in Philly the other times.

But no reason to think the other teams will win out either. Hoping for Astros or Orioles in the WS anyway.

zambonir 2024-09-26 18:06:00 UTC #185

Two notable scenarios (out of 64 major variations and 1,536 actual different outcomes)

What would render Monday’s doubleheader completely unnecessary?

There are a couple scenarios in which the National League playoff field is set and seeded by Sunday night. This would require:

• A Royals sweep of the Braves

• The Padres to take two of three from the Diamondbacks

• The Mets to win the series over the Brewers

In these cases, the Padres would host the Mets and the Brewers would host the Diamondbacks. The Braves would be eliminated.

And also, if either Atlanta or Arizona is eliminated before Monday (the Mets can't be) it's possible the commissioner would cancel the games and determine the 5th and 6th seeds some other way.

andyb 2024-09-26 18:35:06 UTC #186

Translation - root for the Braves so both the Braves and Mets lose because their pitching staffs get overworked on Monday.

zambonir 2024-09-26 18:56:02 UTC #187

Yeah, though I'm not sure the long-term effect of that will ultimately help the Phillies. Possibly just the opposite, in that it increases the likelihood that we see the Brewers or Padres instead of the Mets, Braves or DBacks.

andyb 2024-09-26 19:07:23 UTC #188

But that is overthinking. The Braves and Mets are both the enemy so we should root for the toughest postseason path for both of them.

zambonir 2024-09-26 19:14:05 UTC #189

I guess. I think it would be fun to play and beat either of them because they are the enemy. And I think it would be good if our opponent has a long tough WC series rather than two easy games (as we ultimately did before knocking off the Braves).

xogfog 2024-09-27 06:49:05 UTC #190

I was really hoping the Padres would have beaten the Dodgers today, took a 2-0 lead into the 7th, and lost 7-2. Now we need to Rockies to beat the Dodgers at least once.

phillychuck 2024-09-27 11:53:48 UTC #191

Padres clinched the night before this game...might have been a bit of a hangover late.

zambonir 2024-09-27 13:03:52 UTC #192

They had a shot at the division though, shouldn't have been celebrating the playoff spot too hard in the middle of a series against their direct (and biggest) rival.

Still don't really see us going 3-0. Haven't swept a road series the entire second half. The Dodgers are certainly not guaranteed to sweep either but we probably need them to lose twice. At least there's no real reason not go hard all weekend. And if guys rest, that doesn't mean the bench guys can't step up as they often have.

bkeich 2024-09-27 13:18:01 UTC #193

So, both Phils and Dodgers have clinched bye’s. 3 games, Dodgers up 1, both teams probably resting players some.

Somewhat weird way to end the season. Maybe there needs to be more incentive for each seed spot…. Start the series up a game? More home games for #1 (more than just the odd game)? Or am I making it more than it should be?

zambonir 2024-09-27 13:25:09 UTC #194

I don't think anyone thinks there's an issue with the race for the #1 seeds, if anything people want to make it harder for the wild cards (with the idea you mentioned, the high seeds in the WC round start up 1-0).

And the last weekend of the season has been meaningless more often than not for all but a few teams for years.

I'm pretty much agnostic about the #1 seed at this point. Content to play the Brewers or the #6 and who knows if the Dodgers will make it out of their half. If the #6 is a Mets or Braves team that still has to play Monday they probably won't make it out either. I think avoiding the two West teams in the NLDS is probably wise (if still not fully controllable).