Phillies Acquire OF Harrison Bader from Twins

[zambonir]

Oh I am not holding it against him, it's just when his defensive stats for this season are discussed they are mostly in LF. But he is surely better in CF than Marsh and Marsh is best in LF.

I'm assuming Kepler is gone if he's reduced to just playing LF once or twice a week with Marsh back in CF. Better to just have Bader play CF with just the odd day off and Rojas spells Marsh in LF [at least while Kemp is our 3B].

I guess Rojas could also be optioned if they keep Kepler, just not sure they should do that.

We'll see what the next four hours bring.

[andyb]

Looks like Bader will cost a bit more money than initially thought. About $1.3 million in remaining salary. $500K assignment bonus. $1.5 million buyout. Buyout could increase another $1.5 million if he passes 500 plate appearances. He'll get there playing full time (at 307 now, 54 games remaining. $200K at 400, 425, 450. $450K at 475, 500.

All multiplied by 110% and he could cost Middleton more than $10 million total.

[allentown]

A guy with plus o-WAR and d-WAR. Has a very nice overallo rWAR going. An interesting guy -- 9 years in majors and never had a negative WAR season. Very hot over the past month. Also unusual that he has virtually no platoon split.

[bigegypt0417]

he's having a good season but it's basically his average season...that's a really broad brush you're painting with...

[andyb]

Feel like one of Wilson, Hicklen or Stevenson is a DFA.

For now it is a fungible pitcher:

Phillies Designate Brett De Geus For Assignment

Athletic has a Bader fan grading the trade:

Trade grade: Phillies upgrade outfield, acquire defensive wiz Harrison Bader...

[zambonir]

But isn't the buyout only if Bader triggers the mutual option and Phillies decline? A) He won't and B) if he does they can just pick up their end because they're already on the hook for $3M.

[andyb]

I think the buyout is just code for more guaranteed salary and it must be paid UNLESS the option is mutually agreed upon.

It is a way to make a lower cash salary offer to a player like Bader for a cash flow poor team like the Twins. But it is guaranteed salary for Bader.

[zambonir]

Oh, I see now. I was only looking at BBRef which shows his 2025 salary as 6.25M and then the mutual option with no dollar figure. But looking at Cot's his 2025 salary is actually 4 million plus a 750K signing bonus plus the $1.5 million guaranteed portion of the buyout.

And he would get $10 million next year so I guess it's not impossible he'd take it, but probably not so long as his good season continues.

[Jazzhead]

I like the Bader trade. He should be playing CF most days, with Marsh and Rojas in left. The key to success this year is to support the pitching, and that means speed and arm strength in the OF. Since Kemp is playing third these days, that means that Kepler is the odd man out, unless Rojas can still be optioned,

[julio]

Since Kemp is playing third these days, that means that Kepler is the odd man out, unless Rojas can still be optioned,

Rojas has two option years remaining. Quick lookup on Fangraphs.

[Jazzhead]

Thanks

[Jazzhead]

Acquiring two closer-capable relievers (one said to be the best available) and a Gold Glove CF while limiting the significant cost to Abel and Tait strikes me as a pretty darn good trade deadline get.

[zambonir]

Assuming Robertson thrives, the benefit of getting him for only $ can't be overstated.

Phillies press release just went out. Never mind whether it was a great deal or the fact that the Phillies are hyping it here [as one would expect]. It's just amazing to see it be entirely centered around OPS and Statcast metrics and advanced defensive stats. 10 years ago this front office was only just beginning to believe in any of that stuff.

Similarly, I noticed Dombrowski had 15 members of his front office with him in the box at the White Sox game. I gotta think Ruben was only with a couple of assistant GMs and Mike Ondo in his day.

> Bader, 31, has played 96 games for the Twins this season and combined to slash .258/.339/.439 with a .778 OPS in 307 plate appearances. In 88 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, he has a .774 OPS and in 219 plate appearances against right-handers, he has posted a .779 OPS. A veteran of 31 postseason games, Bader has an .809 OPS with five home runs in 72 career playoff plate appearances.

> Via Statcast, Bader is running the highest hard-hit rate of his career at 40.1%. He has seen his average bat speed increase 2.1 mph from 71.2 last season to 73.3 in 2025 which is the eighth-largest year-to-year increase of any of the 171 qualified hitters in baseball.

> Defensively, Bader, a 2021 National League Gold Glove Award winner, has appeared in 496.0 innings for the Twins in left field this season, accumulating 8 Defensive Runs Saved and 4 Outs Above Average. He has 179.2 innings in center field where he has 5 Defensive Runs Saved and 1 Out Above Average. He also has appeared in 41.0 innings in right field.

[Austinfan]

This is more like the moves they should be making, Mendez is a longshot to be anything more than a bench player and the young pitcher is a lottery ticket who is probably 5-6 years away if ever.

But they should have signed him instead of Kepler, when you have Marsh and won't bench Casty, why would you pay $10M on the hope that Kepler would repeat his one good season?

[dicemen99]

Assuming Robertson thrives, the benefit of getting him for only $ can't be overstated.

Phillies press release just went out. Never mind whether it was a great deal or the fact that the Phillies are hyping it here [as one would expect]. It's just amazing to see it be entirely centered around OPS and Statcast metrics and advanced defensive stats. 10 years ago this front office was only just beginning to believe in any of that stuff.

Similarly, I noticed Dombrowski had 15 members of his front office with him in the box at the White Sox game. I gotta think Ruben was only with a couple of assistant GMs and Mike Ondo in his day.

> Bader, 31, has played 96 games for the Twins this season and combined to slash .258/.339/.439 with a .778 OPS in 307 plate appearances. In 88 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, he has a .774 OPS and in 219 plate appearances against right-handers, he has posted a .779 OPS. A veteran of 31 postseason games, Bader has an .809 OPS with five home runs in 72 career playoff plate appearances.

> Via Statcast, Bader is running the highest hard-hit rate of his career at 40.1%. He has seen his average bat speed increase 2.1 mph from 71.2 last season to 73.3 in 2025 which is the eighth-largest year-to-year increase of any of the 171 qualified hitters in baseball.

> Defensively, Bader, a 2021 National League Gold Glove Award winner, has appeared in 496.0 innings for the Twins in left field this season, accumulating 8 Defensive Runs Saved and 4 Outs Above Average. He has 179.2 innings in center field where he has 5 Defensive Runs Saved and 1 Out Above Average. He also has appeared in 41.0 innings in right field.

Yeah, I noticed that as well. This is the first time I've seen them do anything like this.

And they're bringing aboard a guy that those metrics really favor. What a coincidence! Where were those stats at Nick's signing?

[phillychuck]

Of course, that is ignoring other metrics, like the season he’s having now is way out of line offensively with his career production, and should be subject to regression. He is a better hitter, specifically for power, vs LHP in his career...he’s probably best as a platoon OF vs lefties, the short side of the platoon, but that handedness is needed for this team. He also has an extremely high, extremely stable chase rate. I don’t like that his BB% is just as low vs lefties as it is vs righties since we could use some help with our OBP. His more advanced defensive metrics also show him to be an average CF over his career, not an excellent one, as his small sample seems to support this season.

I know it’s not up to the Phils to show the negative metrics, but we would be aware they are present.

[zambonir]

Of course it is skewed. But do you really think the increased bat speed will just go away? Especially considering he was injured in '22 and '23?

Mostly I don't hate or love it any more than the other options. Laureano might have been nice but he is also a guy who wasn't this good from 2022 to 2024 [though he got going in Atlanta].

[Dirk41]

He doesn't have a college degree. He hits baseballs

[phillychuck]

I think I would have liked Alex Call better. No super option seemed to be available. I think they overpaid a bit for Bader, but not terribly. I don’t like trading away prospects at the deadline in general, so my “priors” predispose me to dislike these trades. Let’s hope his resurgence continues.

What were his injuries in 2022/23? And what did he do to increase his bat speed this season?

[allentown]

I think I would have liked Alex Call better.

Why? He's a negative defender and Bader has more HR power and is less a SSS good season.