Phillies 2026 News and Discussion

[Philsmania]

And, the Union is charging. Yeah, it seems like the Phillies are becoming the weak link of Philadelphia sports.

[Philsmania]

We are going to miss the playoffs. We had our ace facing a Nats lineup without their three best players in the starting lineup (Wood, Abrams, Lile) and we lose. We score zero runs in four innings against the worst bullpen in MLB. The Brewers and Rays will chew us up next week

Truth is, this team has been Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde all season long. They start 9-19 and then go 38-18. Then, after a mediocre 7-6 run up to the ASB (in which they have a -17 RD, so they probably weren't as good as that record), they come out of the break with a dismal 3-10 run. But, then the calendar flips to August and they go 21-7. Now, they are 5-7 so far in September. Seriously, I could see this team falling out of the Postseason (If the Phillies of April and late-July show up) and I could see it getting to October, getting hot and winning the WS (if the Phillies of May, June and especially August show up).

[zambonir]

As EF pointed out in the game thread (and has already been discussed a few times) this isn't even worse than September of 2022 (yet). What feels worse is watching the team's one clear strength crack open.

Not ready to put my hopes on any of those other teams to play for a championship this year either though.

[zambonir]

It's hard to make much sense of the season with the poor start (and no Wheeler). But in the current moment, it does seem like they get exposed by better teams, in which they have no margin for error with the bullpen or the secondary hitters going cold. That amazing August run came against zero teams with winning records, save for one game on August 31 against Arizona. This month, it's been all teams with winning records (yeah, even Houston now). And they're 5-8 now.

They could absolutely still go on a run. The hitters can get hot. The bullpen can get lucky. But it really requires the best version of at least two starting pitchers. Preferably three. And the team was still losing games having that in '24 and '25.

[flyers19rw]

I'm having a hard time finding a one clear strength for this club. The SP was not in shape all season. Two of the five slots were always weak. The BP has been a sieve aside from Duran. The sluggers don't slug on a consistent basis and the rest of the lineup has been weak all season except for Marsh's flukey first half. The defense leaves a lot to be desired. The base running is beyond atrocious. That's all before the mismanagement of the roster by Thomson and Mattingly get factored into the equation. So where is this one clear strength?

[Philsmania]

I would say the rotation definitely clicked in August, even with Wheeler's mini-funk. Also, that month, the bullpen seemed to settle down with Bowlan and Mayza in the 8th and McFarlane and Raley in the 7th emerging as the "bridge to Duran". But, alas, the bullpen settling down proved fleeting and the rotation is cracking with injuries and exhaustion.

[zambonir]

Just because two of the five SP slots were weak doesn't mean it isn't still one of MLB's very best rotations. There are probably 20 teams with three worse top pitchers whose 4 and 5s are also worse. That's one of those things where you have to recognize what the other teams have, not a platonic ideal.

Phillies starters are #1 in strikeouts, and #7 in ERA and WHIP (I suspect those were higher back when the the top three were better, even if the other two have been better since). They are also second in WAR and first in xFIP (hardly surprising they are let down by defense).

And of course Nola and Painter's improvement was pretty important given Wheeler's rough patch and Sanchez not being as great.

[Philsmania]

It's hard to make much sense of the season with the poor start (and no Wheeler). But in the current moment, it does seem like they get exposed by better teams, in which they have no margin for error with the bullpen or the secondary hitters going cold. That amazing August run came against zero teams with winning records, save for one game on August 31 against Arizona. This month, it's been all teams with winning records (yeah, even Houston now). And they're 5-8 now.

They could absolutely still go on a run. The hitters can get hot. The bullpen can get lucky. But it really requires the best version of at least two starting pitchers. Preferably three. And the team was still losing games having that in '24 and '25.

24-32 (.428) against teams with winning records. The good teams expose our deepest, darkest flaws.

[zambonir]

We could have dismissed that as a product of the poor start. 3-13 against Arizona, Chicago and Atlanta in April; so they are 21-19 since then. But September is not telling an encouraging story.

[Callison]

One good decision the Phils made was not to sign a SP at the deadline. IMHO there was plenty of reason to think Nola AND Painter were not gonna compete, but the Phils trusted them and they've both come through. Hoping that was more than just good luck, it sure looks good. Nola has even looked dominant at times. Maybe last month fans would be wondering how many innings he would last, but today they wonder how good he will be. Hope the hitters show up.

[andyb]

Jose Urquidy claimed on waivers to provide bulk innings tomorrow. No corresponding roster move yet other than getting him on the 40 in Killian's spot (so he is not coming back this year).

[David_Criss]

Urquidy over giving Chuck King a shot to eat some innings in a game or two????????????

[zambonir]

That seems like a pretty easy call, going with a AAAA guy who was once an elite major leaguer over a guy who started this year in AA and only turned pro three years ago after not throwing a pitch at all for the two before that.

[Philsmania]

Urquidy's ERA isn't great (4.37) but he's got a modest WHIP (1.191). I like my relievers to not be allowing many baserunners.

[zambonir]

If we've typically looked at guys with a 1.000 OPS in AAA and found it didn't translate to MLB does that mean pitchers should fare better?

I think it's all a coin flip personally, as bad as Rangel has been, he might have come up and eaten a few innings just as well as anyone else, but at some point they also decided he wasn't up to the job in general (when they gave Keller his brief look).

I think the Phillies just really need Luzardo back, not merely because of how good he's been, but because they are going to need as many relief innings out of the rotation as they can get to have a shot at making it through any series (though winning Game 1 of a WC series with seven innings from a starter and a non-save situation would ease the pressure initially.

We ever gonna see the new Hoffman?

[David_Criss]

You make a lot of sense. I hadn't really looked at it that way.

[Carver]

You emphasized the secret to their potential for success in the playoffs - the starters need to gobble up the innings, while they shorten the pen. I don't know where they currently stand, but the Phils were close to the top when it comes to bullpen usage not that long ago (meaning fewest bullpen innings).

If Luzardo is unavailable that will hurt quite a bit, but almost every team would be thrilled to have Wheeler / Sanchez / Nola (current iteration) as their playoff starters.

[zambonir]

If Luzardo is unavailable that will hurt quite a bit, but almost every team would be thrilled to have Wheeler / Sanchez / Nola (current iteration) as their playoff starters.

No doubt, but in that scenario they lose Luzardo both as a starter and the most relief-friendly starter, while Painter is both an unknown in the latter case and could also be needed to start Game 1 of the NLDS if WC goes three. A problem I will take right now.

Neither the Phillies nor the Dodgers used many relievers last year, Dodgers just got better results, including for their starter-turned-closer. The Phillies didn't go back to Robertson in the series after Game 1 but that's also why Kerkering was pitching in Game 4 (and even then only after Luzardo did).

[Carver]

Of course, when you take away from your team strength it will hurt - it could even be fatal if the bats can't step enough to handle the slack. Plus, a shoulder is worrisome indeed, even if right now they see no structural concerns.

We have ten games left to sort things out - will Zeus be able to pitch again in the playoffs; how bad is Bowlan's strained groin; can they shift Painter to a pen arm and so on. It is hard to see the Phils making it to the NLCS, but then again anything can happen in a short series. No one saw them getting to the Series in 2022, while the next three years we fell short of expectations in the playoffs. There is a reason that I don't bet on baseball...or sports in general.

[zambonir]

They definitely need a repeat of 2022 here. Nobody expected them to beat St. Louis, and they might not have had the Cardinals' closer hadn't imploded in Game 1 (I suppose you could say the same about the Phillies bullpen in Game 1 against the Mets in '24). They also weren't supposed to beat the Braves. But even more than that, they didn't have to play the best team in the NLCS, thasnks the #5 seed knocking out LA.

Stick to the 5th or 4th seed this year nd they miss Atlanta in the WC, likely get Milwaukee instead of LA in the NLDS (not that the Brewers are easy) and will miss either LA or Atlanta entirely, should they get that far. Still want the home games though