Phillies 2026 News and Discussion

[andyb]

It probably assesses the quality of the roster which is a more important factor than a 1%-2% difference in the strength of schedule. Some of those teams sold so presumably have weaker rosters going forward.

[zambonir]

They are both Fangraphs

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/about

To generate the playoff odds, we take the current standings, the remaining schedule, and each team's projected performance. We use those inputs to simulate the remaining season 20,000 times. We aggregate these outcomes to find the probability of winning the division or a Wild Card spot, along with winning the World Series and various playoff rounds. If a team has a 90% chance to make the playoffs it means that 18,000 out of the 20,000 simulated seasons end with the team making the playoffs.

[SOS] is our estimation of the difficulty of each team's remaining schedule. We take the average neutral-opponent winning percentage of each of a team's remaining opponents, weighted by how many times the teams play. This is affected by the projection mode -- if you select FanGraphs Projections mode, strength of schedule will use opponents' forward-looking projections, rather than their performance in the season to date. Note that the winning percentages used for each opponent are not the same as the "ROS W%" column. That column takes the remaining schedule into account, while SOS calculations are performed on neutral-opponent win percentages (which you can find on our projected standings page).

[andyb]

The Ros W% is the difference though and basically it says our roster is better than Arizona's even though we have the same record, the same division deficit, and a slightly harder schedule.

[zambonir]

Rangel down MacFarlane up.

[Philsmania]

Phillies, 80.5% odds of making playoffs, .502 SOS
Arizona,54.2% odds, 496 SOS
San Diego, 36.6% odds, .499 SOS
Miami,10.9% odds, .509 SOS

Cubs and Braves are all but in. Dodgers and Brewers odds are 100%.

Which MLB contenders have the toughest road to the playoffs? Breaking down the...

If it comes down to the last week, we may be in trouble. Our last six regular season games are against the Brewers and Rays at CBP where--as I've harped a great deal--we haven't played very well this season. However, maybe it's possible both teams will just be playing out the string having secured their division titles and possibly HFA in their respective leagues.

[EastFallowfield]

What were the odds for the 2007 Mets in mid September? Or the 64 Phillies?

[zambonir]

Or even the 2024 Mets. But to have a unicorn event like that you have to also be supremely confident that the more likely probability prevails. I'm thinking you don't feel that way right now!

[Austinfan]

Not necessarily. Mounds differ from field to field, Sanchez may feel really comfortable with the CBP mound. And that may have added importance for a guy where command is key to his performance.

[zambonir]

Well, they aren't going to not pitch him in the WC round, which will be on the road, as well Games 1 and 2 of the next one.

If the rotation actually lines up, you might see Luzardo in Game 1 out of the pen, if only for an inning, and then again in Game 3 with Nola. Not having a bye into NLDS means they probably do need four SPs right away, unless they win the WC round 2-0.

[andyb]

There is no real difference in mounds or anything else. There is lots of data to suggest most of these differences are random when it is not an extreme park. Just like clutch hitting mostly does not exist.

[Philsmania]

I don't know. i do remember a lot of chatter about the Vet's mound being taller than average. When the Athletics played at the Vet in 2003, one of the A's pitchers commented that he thought he would get a nosebleed standing on it. Supposedly, Schilling worked with the Vet's grounds crew to get the mound just right.

[andyb]

There are slight differences. But most are meaningless over time. It is grasping at straws to draw too much meaning into home/road differences. We are just not going to jump Luzardo ahead of Sanchez because of that. Far more important will be if one pitches better in September.

[EastFallowfield]

I'm just wondering how close to 100% they were

[majik]

This team is getting dangerously close to that old Don Drysdale quote of “Did we win?” after being away from the team and told that Sandy Koufax has just thrown a no-hitter.

This team has been shutout like 12 times this year and it is this lack of offense that has sent this team home in October the last three years. Situational hitting is a real problem with this team. This team struggles to score with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs. There are a few players that have horrible approaches with 2-0 and 3-1 counts, Trea Turner in particular.

I think we are in for a rude awakening come September when the schedule gets tougher and we are chasing the Diamondbacks and the Padres for the last playoff spot. As of this morning, we find ourselves in a three-way tie for the final two wildcard spots

[zambonir]

Well, you are talking about different eras and playoff berths too. The 1964 Phillies were only competing for one spot, not two, three, four or six. Even the 2007 Mets were competing for four, though they ultimately lost not only to the Phillies for the division but two other wild card contenders. I dunno if the historical data exists for those seasons or not but I'm sure the numbers were high.

The 2024 Mets had just a 26.5% chance at this time in 2026. Braves were at 68.5%. DBacks were 88.6%. In the current scenario, if you are fearing the worst, Phillies are the Dbacks. But it takes both epically good and bad baseball for those swings to happen. Crudely, the Phillies would have missed the playoffs 20 times out of 100 seasons. And we'd remember all 20 of those better than the other ones.

[zambonir]

Everything's going great!

Bryce Harper’s knee soreness flared up after a move to the outfield. He thinks...

Original injury was before the All-Star break. Now it only hurts when he stops or starts in the field. I guess the plus side is less Bohm (but more Schwarber at 1B).

[phillychuck]

Get Bryce the hell out of the outfield...Bohm can get comfortable on the bench 4 or 5 days a week... This has to be the upper management having a meeting with Mattingly and essentially saying "Bryce never plays OF, get it?” You’re fiddling with dynamite. Sometimes it goes BOOM...

[EastFallowfield]

Kinda think that upper management is involved in these kind of decisions already and here we are

[zambonir]

Except that upper management decided to move him to the OF, not Mattingly. They also decided to accommodate Arraez's positional preference. And accomodate Bohm, for that matter. Would be kind of funny if they just end up with Bryce at 1B and Hill/De La Cruz in RF after all. If they really need to move Bryce to DH they could also just play Schwarber in LF and Marsh in RF.

But for now it sounds like they're staying the course, and claiming it's something he'll get past. Mattingly still says he might play 162 games too. Could indeed go BOOM.

[andyb]

I think it is getting pretty clear that we are a better team against right-handed pitching with either Hill or De La Cruz in the lineup over Bohm. I'd keep Bryce at 1B and maybe give him one or two starts in the OF a week. Bohm can play 1B when Bryce DHs or on those occasional OF days.

Even when Hill occasionally looks bad at the plate he still adds on defense and with baserunning. He is having his career year so let's take advantage of it (even though he is too old to really be another Werth).