I don't worry until 40 games, SSS the first couple weeks.
Good signs:
1) Garcia is clearly >> Nick, just on defense, already saved 2 hits in 5 games. If he hits as well or better that's about a 2 WAR turnaround just based on defense.
2) Painter is as advertised, 4 seamer 96-97 at 70-80 pitches, 2 seamer (need to use more), slider (a little erratic), curve (killer), changeup (improved as game went along). Sweeper seems superfluous. Thought it wasn't a great performance, release point on breaking stuff was too early at times, resulting in pitches up in the zone. Imagine when he figures it out.
3) Crawford is as advertised, GBs but also line drives, we'll see how he holds up, but I can see him leading off by June.
4) Bohm, Stott, Realmuto, meh. Get healthy Miller, and hopefully Escobar is for real. They need a young catcher.
5) BP a little shaky, but the raw talent is there, they won 96 last year, they should win 95-100 this year if Garcia and Crawford can improve the hitting a little. And if Wheeler is back.