Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion

[Austinfan]

Oh God, here comes the Phillies linked with every "name" this winter.
I don't think they look twice at Harper unless his price comes way down - he's too erratic to give a big contract.
I'm not sure they want Machado as a shortstop.
I can't see spending ridiculous money on a closer who may be on the downslide when you have SD, and Neris might have regained his splitter.

I think however Klentak will use this nonsense as cover as he goes after his real targets.

[LoneStarPhan]

I would think they would be looking for a veteran left hander for the bullpen. Loup is a free agent and I don't think he fills the need for 2019. Morgan, Davis, and others from the system might end up in the pen, but a solid veteran left hander would be a good addition.

[zambonir]

We're familiar with your default position of never signing free agents ever. If they could get Kimbrel on a shorter deal I can definitely see it, just as they got Arrieta. And they for sure still want Machado, wherever. They still don't actually have a shortstop. Given the excellent state of the rotation, one bullpen piece and one bat does make sense, though I could still see them trading for a pitcher (or a reliever).

I agree Harper is probably off the table but we won't know for sure until the market opens. I just don't like him, really, though I'm sure I'd get over it once he put the hat on.

[LoneStarPhan]

I would definitely push hard for Machado and go all out to get him signed.

I would not do the same for Harper. I would look for value if the free agent market lags and leaves some useful veterans unsigned late in the game. I would not pay Harper the money he is going to be asking and would much rather wait for Trout in another two years or less. I would explore a trade for Trout this off season, next July, and in off season 2019, and July 2020. At some point, the Angels might want to start a rebuild and consider a deal the Phillies might do.

I expect Klentak will follow the pattern he did this past off season. He signed three free agents fairly early and probably paid a little more than others were offering. Then he added more value later when cost and/or years went down.

[zambonir]

He had to overpay last year to get those guys onto a 66-win team. That won't be a problem this time, though obviously Machado is a whole other situation.

[DurhamBull]

To me the most interesting thing in that article wasn't the speculation, it was the description of the team's assets (emphasis mine):

"They have the controllable ace (Aaron Nola), cornerstone position players (Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, Nick Williams and Odubel Herrera) and prospects (Sixto Sanchez, Alec Bohm, Adonis Media) to set up a perennial contender."

At least in this article, Franco has graduated to a "cornerstone"! I hope to see more people describing Franco that way.

[Philsmania]

I hope Harper is off their table. The problem is that many low-information fans think he is as elite as Trout and these low-information fans but tickets and they'll be furious if the Phillies whiff on Machado and then pass on Harper.

[Austinfan]

I don't want Machado as SS and Franco/Bohm at 3B the next five years, while defense may be overrated, that's really a bad combination in a game that is heavily RH. I think Machado has peaked, and what you see is all you're gonna get as a hitter, while he'll go downhill at SS quickly as his range steadily deteriorates. So while he'd be value at 3B, he'll be a gross overpay at SS.

I'd rather resign Ramos for a 2-3 year deal and gradually work in Alfaro, who is a long way from being a reliable ML hitter.
I'd sign Harper if his market collapses, he's fine value at $20-25M for 3-5 years, just not a megadeal.
I'd keep Bour and overpay him to eventually phase out Santana next year, and Hoskins can start playing 1B against LH to eventually move there when we sign Trout in 2021. But I'm not stripping the farm system for one year of his play.
I'd re-up Hernandez and buy time for Kingery, Crawford and all the LA IFs climbing the system ladder.

I'm not giving big money to a RP unless he's exceptional and in his prime, not based on past performance at a position notorious for players falling off the cliff. Keep stockpiling young arms and rotate them in, you need 8-9 RPs in any season.

[andyb]

There is evidence that Machado is not as bad at SS as the initial stats seem. His initial bad ratings were due to a small sample of 56 plays.

Sarris: Is Manny Machado really as bad as he's looked at...

Plus he is grading out much better with the Dodgers. He is 26. I think it is possible he could be close to average defensively at SS for 4-5 years. Do I think 3B is a better fit? Yes. But that does not mean he could not be a really good SS.

And you are willing to re-up Hernandez who is 2 years older and is showing some signs of slippage already?

If we have a chance to get Machado we should and then rearrange all the other pieces around him. When Bohm is ready there are other position options also (LF, 1B) as he is a better athlete than Hoskins.

There is really not a great reason to keep Bour unless you are getting rid of Santana. GMs need to decide. They can't hedge by stacking athletically limited people who are expensive on the bench. It is fine for the short term but not for the long term.

And of course we know you are not giving big money to anyone. I hate $18 million deals for relievers as much as anyone, but I also hate money not spent that just goes into excess profits. So if they could get an expensive 2 or 3 year deal for a reliever I would consider it.

[David_Criss]

I'd rather resign Ramos for a 2-3 year deal and gradually work in Alfaro, who is a long way from being a reliable ML hitter.
I'd sign Harper if his market collapses, he's fine value at $20-25M for 3-5 years, just not a megadeal.
I'd keep Bour and overpay him to eventually phase out Santana next year, and Hoskins can start playing 1B against LH to eventually move there when we sign Trout in 2021. But I'm not stripping the farm system for one year of his play.
I'd re-up Hernandez and buy time for Kingery, Crawford and all the LA IFs climbing the system ladder.

Yes to all of these suggestions. Hernandez isn't a FA for a couple years and as ESPN said last night is perhaps one of the most underated players out there. With Bour, you could maybe trade Santana to an AL team - will have to eat some salary, but.....

[Patchmk88]

It’s always fun when the Mets leader in key hitting statistics for the season now plays for the other team.

[andyb]

Knapp apparently is going to get reps at 1B and 3B and the OF during his 16 days in the minors. This is more about September flexibility I assume though I guess if they continue it next Spring they could seriously consider going with 3 catchers on the bench. A true 1B/3B like Walding is the better fit for that, but it will be interesting to see if this becomes more of an experiment.

[Austinfan]

A third catcher who can play multiple positions and is a switchhitter is far more valuable than Walding on a short bench.
That's because he allow you to use your backup catcher to pinch hit or makes it easier to do double switches.
With Hoskins in LF, playing 1B has the least value on the bench.

[andyb]

Not if the 3rd catcher hardly ever plays catcher, is not better offensively than Walding, and is less good defensively than Walding. I know it is a nice idea to have a 3rd catcher, but that 3rd catcher needs to actually be better at non-catching things than the alternative because the reality is that teams do not need 3 catchers.

[Austinfan]

Since Walding has yet to even hit a ML pitch, it's hard to say he's as good offensively as Knapp.

[andyb]

Since Walding has yet to even hit a ML pitch, it's hard to say he's as good offensively as Knapp.

But you are sure Meneses can? Pretty selective logic there. Analysis of 14 AB versus the last thousand or so in the minors? And is there any evidence Knapp can actually play 1B or 3B or the OF well? I'd venture that it is not hard to say that Knapp is not as good defensively as Walding at those positions.

[Austinfan]

I have no idea whether Walding or Meneses can hit ML pitching, I know that Knapp, while up and down, has shown the basic skills to have a shot at being a solid ML hitter.

One of the problems when you start winning is you can't afford to give a kid 200 PA to see what they have - it becomes WIN NOW BABY.

[zambonir]

Sounds like we got some "injuries"

Philadelphia Phillies (Phillies)

[andyb]

Well Walding and Meneses have had a 900 OPS at AAA which was much better than Knapp. And Knapp at a career 702 OPS is fine for a catcher but actually not fine for anywhere else. And there is no clue he'd be better than awful defensively outside of catcher.

I like Knapp. He is fine as a backup catcher if you spot him against teams that don't run a lot. But there is actually no evidence he has the skills you would want as a bench player in any role other than backup catcher. The other stuff is kind of important on a 4-man bench. But I guess you don't care about that. Once you have a narrative the other facts just don't seem to matter that much.

[andyb]

Sounds like we got some "injuries"

Was expecting something like this. There had to be a reason that Kapler was so aggressive about using the bullpen early the day before a double header. Downside of course is it leaves them with only 1 LHP in the bullpen for 10 days unless they keep Suarez up to be in the bullpen.