Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion

[zambonir]

I think there are certain pitchers (ours and opposing) they like to do it with and others where they don't. I suspect the absence of Crawford has something to do with it recently (even though he wasn't exactly filling the role of "second lead-off hitter").

[tom81]

Crawford profiles as the kind of hitter you would want to bat 9th, high OBA with little power. The rest of the guys hitting 8th profile more as lower OBA but higher SLG. These type of guys are more likely to drive in runs than Crawford so have more value hitting 8th.

[Patchmk88]

Interesting article on Arrieta. Predicts that his perphial stats will decline steeply due to low strikeout and high walk totals. Not sure how much I agree. Although his strikeouts are down, the opposition isn’t getting good contact against him.

Jake Arrieta has stopped striking people out

[Austinfan]

Nothing that should surprise most people here, Arrieta is no longer an elite starter, and the Phillies aren't paying him as one, Nola is the better pitcher at this point, and Pivetta may soon surpass him.

But his contract only requires him to put up 9-10 WAR over three years, which is basically a #2/#3 starter, which he still is and should be for another year or two. His velocity is actually up a notch over last season.
Arrieta has good stuff, but average command, his movement makes hard contact more difficult, and he's pitching more to contact. But he has four solid pitches and his 2 seamer has great movement. If he finished the year as a 3.50 ERA/FIP starter with 30 starts and 180+ innings and 3-4 WAR, he's earned his money.

As long as you accept Arrieta for what he is, solid veteran pitching depth, it was a fine signing.
He'll buy time for De Los Santos, Irvin, Romero, Kilome, Sanchez, Medina et al to develop.

If you fooled yourself into thinking we added an elite starter, well, prepare to be disappointed.

[andyb]

Seems a pretty mediocre article to me based on small sample size stats. It is also wrong at the end when it talks about reduced velocity. Arrieta has actually rebounded some from last year and is close to what he was in 2016 the last month. Maybe the better velocity coupled with movement is letting him pitch to contact more. And maybe his K rate settles in closer to 8.0/9 as the sample increases.

He is clearly an evolving pitcher, but there is little evidence he is in a huge decline yet or has "stopped striking people out". Nola is also striking fewer people out this year and we are not (and should not) be discussing his "decline".

[Patchmk88]

I agree with you.

[phillychuck]

Just a discussion-prompting question--how good would this team be if Williams, Hoskins, Kingery, Altherr, Crawford, and Santana were playing even close to their projections?

[flyers19rw]

Additionally, Arrieta had no spring training which has to be factored into his early performances. He's about a month behind where other pitchers are and is just rounding into what should be his year long form.

[allentown]

Well they couldn't all play at once. Santana started awful, but is now hitting well. I think his May numbers are on projection. Really, he has started slowly in recent years, so his whole year is pretty much on projection. Williams hasn't played much -- started cold but has done well as a PH recently. Would he perform on projection if played regularly? Hoskins carried the team early, now slumping. These things often even out. I don't know what a realistic projection is for Crawford or Kingery this year. Kingery has about the same OPS as he did his first half season in Reading.

[EastFallowfield]

Read something on Talking Chop about how so many Braves are doing so much better than their projections and isn't it neat and all but thought along these lines, that the Phils are a half game back without being all that close to firing on all cylinders'.

[andyb]

Though conversely our pitching has generally been better than projected, especially in the starting rotation. One could argue that all 5 spots, even the Lively/Eflin combo has outperformed pre-season projections.

So yes, if the offense was hitting all projections we'd probably be 3-5 games better. But that is asking the question of what happens if all our bad performers get better while all our good performers remain good - and that is a little SSS unrealistic.

[allentown]

Yeah, it's a lousy article. His walk rate is exactly the same as last year and better than 2016. His HR rate is about half what it was in his last 3 Chicago seasons. His K-rate is off by about a quarter on the year.

[EastFallowfield]

Our hitters will probably hit for more power and our pitchers pitch worse at home once the weather heats up and it's hittin' season or whatever Charlie used to call it.

[Austinfan]

I don't think our young pitchers will pitch quite this well, but I also think people underestimated them - it's not unusual for a talented young pitcher to struggle their first time around in the majors, then make a big jump once they tweak their mechanics and understand they have to pitch rather than just rear back and throw hard.

And we do have reinforcements in Lehigh if anyone falters.

[andyb]

Athletic mailbag on Hoskins. Sarris thinks since he retooled his swing with an upper cut, he is now vulnerable to pitches up and away. The league adjusted on him. Now we'll see if he can adjust back.

A beer, a ballgame, a bag of mail: Week Nine

[phillychuck]

Why the bleep would anyone mess with that perfect swing he showed last season? If it ain't broke (and he surely wasn't broke) don't fix it.

BTW, the league didn't adjust to him, he changed something at the request of the coaches that made him vulnerable. That's just incredibly stupid. You have a player who sets all sorts of historic records and you try to change his swing? Morons!

[zambonir]

Well, whatever the coaches had him doing coming out of spring training seemed just as good as what he was doing last year. But he had levelled off last September as well.

I think it's nothing with nothing, normal slumps, normal adjustments, league would have done so regardless of whether they tweaked anything.

[andyb]

Retooling was probably the wrong word because that was done before last year. It is mainly that pitchers have found a weakness up and away where his swing makes it tough for him to do much with that pitch. It is the league adjusting to him. Now he'll need to adjust back.

[Austinfan]

His real problem is timing, he's lunging at breaking stuff away instead of keeping his hands back, and is caught off guard by FBs inside.
I think at some point he'll break out and this will all be moot.

[andyb]

The data says otherwise. He is doing fine on fastballs on the inside half of the plate. It is fastballs up and away that are killing him. Maybe he is too anxious up there. Or maybe simply pitchers have figured out the pitch that he has a tough time hitting. The article speculates that laying off them may not be enough.