I like Iowa's chances better merely because it's still 7 weeks away and at a neutral(ish) site. Penn State only has two weeks, so who even knows what's up with Clifford, and the game is in Columbus.
Michigan very much in the conversation too (at the very least to beat Penn State, we'll see about the Buckeyes). And Iowa could easily trip againt Minnesota or Wisconsin (much as Bama did against the Aggies). Let's face it, it still doesn't look like anyone can hang with the SEC (Oklahoma and Oregon included).