Non-Phillies 2023 Major League Season Discussion

zambonir 2023-09-19 23:55:46 UTC #442

From Stark's piece on the Braves

How can we put this into a context that will drive home how astounding it is for any group to slug .500 as a team over a six-month season? What about this: 15 of the 30 teams don’t even have a single qualifying player who is slugging .500 this year, and that group includes the Blue Jays, Yankees, Phillies, Brewers, Giants, Padres and Reds.

But the Braves are almost certainly going to slug .500 — because their slugging percentage has actually been going up all season. It was .448 after April, .458 after May, .493 at the end of June and didn’t top .500 until Aug. 12. So if you toss out the first two months, they’re slugging .526.

Does a .526 slug seem good? It ought to … since it’s essentially the same as Mike Schmidt’s career slugging percentage. Yep, it doesn’t sound real, all right.

bkeich 2023-09-20 05:58:18 UTC #443

We really need someone to eliminate the Braves for us to repeat last season. They really are much better than the Phillies, no shame in that, they are much better than everyone except a couple teams. Not even sure we have a 10% chance in a 7 game series.

The big hope is they get picked off before they get to us.

mdougherty12 2023-09-20 06:32:20 UTC #444

The most likely scenario has the Braves facing the Phils, or the team that beats the Phils in the Wild Card round, in the Division Series.

bkeich 2023-09-20 06:35:54 UTC #445

Yep. I know. Being the #4 seed looks ugly this season

xogfog 2023-09-20 10:03:44 UTC #446

Well the good news is that it would be a 5 game series.

zambonir 2023-09-20 11:28:43 UTC #447

About the only chance the Phillies have of not playing the Braves would be to start tanking for the 5 or 6 seed, and that would be a profoundly flawed approach (both competitively and financially).

I actually disagree though. The Phillies can hang with the Braves; their best chance is the five game series rather than the NLCS. And an NLDS against LA would be harder, merely for the travel (plus the Dodgers are still pretty good).

Premature to even think about that, the wild card round won't be easy either!

andyb 2023-09-20 12:30:40 UTC #448

That is important. A couple of Wheeler wins and then scrounge one somewhere else is a possible scenario.

Might as well play the best in the postseason too. While everyone wants to avoid the Braves, I imagine the Braves have bad memories from last season too. Maybe we sneak Hoskins on the roster as a pinch hitter just to mess with them. Can't imagine Castro sniffing an AB during the postseason anyway. It might be like the presence of Matt Stairs causing Jonathan Broxton to break out into a sweat.

zambonir 2023-09-20 12:35:44 UTC #449

I don't think Hoskins will realistically be ready for that round. And they probably will carry the max pitchers for it too (in the wild card, maybe not).

But again: premature. Gotta not only win the first round, but do so in a way that sets Wheeler up to even make two starts. Even then, wouldn't like our chances in a Game 5. Winning in four like last year is probably the best path, even if there's no way to repeat what happened with Strider last year.

andyb 2023-09-20 12:52:09 UTC #450

The other team may not know he is not ready. He does not actually have to play.

zambonir 2023-09-20 13:39:10 UTC #451

I mean... they would know. If he's not with the team in the wild card round that would mean he's actively working out in Clearwater, and if he is with the team, they're probably not going to limit him to secret/indoor BP.

I also still don't think they will carry an extra hitter in the second round. Maybe not even the first. Last year's usage patterns certainly suggest that was overkill, but if they do it's not going to be to for bluffing purposes. Castros isn't really in the picture either way IMO, the extra spot would go to Pache once roster is back to 26.

Sabin 2023-09-20 16:06:30 UTC #452

And suddenly the Princess Bride comes to mind..

allentown 2023-09-20 16:11:18 UTC #453

I agree. Even if he is physically ready, the Phillies need to make sure he isn't. He'll be sooo rusty. He'll have no minor league games to get back in a hitting groove. We know he will be a big defensive negative. Waving the white flag to play him in the playoffs.

To AndyB: and that just wastes a roster spot which we might need during playoffs.

zambonir 2023-09-20 16:30:48 UTC #454

I mean I get andy's argument, it's a roster spot they likely won't need, especially if they carry five. A guy who can hit just one home run for you might be more useful than carrying Pache. But Pache obviously gives you more utility, including as a ghost or pinch runner. And if Castro actually is a candidate I'd definitely take Hoskins. There is no chance he plays a game at 1B and maybe not DH either. Bench only.

But I just think the timetable is probably longer. And there's not going to be cloak and dagger. If we hear that Rhys is facing live pitching sometime between now and the end of the regular season he might be a consideration by the NLCS but the NLDS starts just two weeks from Saturday.

andyb 2023-09-20 16:43:07 UTC #455

No ghost runners in the playoffs at least. I actually wish Pache was a better baserunner. He definitely appears likely to not get many starts if at all in the postseason. Imagine Sosa is more likely to get in the lineup than Pache is against a left-handed pitcher.

It really feels like we are going with a set lineup with the only possible platoon being Marsh and Rojas. Cave will probably be around. Just not sure he'll get into many games. We also hope Bryce will be a full time 1B and not DH.

xogfog 2023-09-20 17:00:26 UTC #456

I wonder if that will be the only platoon, because today for instance, Bryce isn't at 1B, which means he might not be ready to play 1B every day.

zambonir 2023-09-20 17:21:21 UTC #457

ah right forgot about the ghost runner. But all the more reason to keep a guy who can pinch-run, pinch-hit or double-switch in an extra-innings game then.

I think Harper will play 1B full-time. Maybe he misses one per series. At this point they are past needing to test his ability to do it and more into resting him so he'll be able to do it, I reckon.

Cave would presumably PH for Rojas and then move into LF a few times. I could see them doing the Pache/Rojas OF against a lefty once or twice though. It's just hard to tell what Pache is capable of at this point given how small the sample is and how much time he missed.

LoneStarPhan 2023-09-20 23:07:31 UTC #458

While it is a relatively small sample size, Rojas has better BA, OBP, SGL, and OPS against RHP than Cave does. Against LHP, Cave is much worse than Rojas. So why would Cave pinch hit for Rojas ever against any pitcher?

zambonir 2023-09-20 23:21:35 UTC #459

Well you answered your own question. Our manager consistently presses platoon match-ups, which do trump small sample size. So much so that he probably will in fact start Cave/Marsh against some RHP instead of Marsh/Rojas. And if he ever does do a Pache/Rojas starting OF Cave would still probably get in (though after Marsh).

I would personally just take the defense (including Marsh, who looks really good in LF, while Rojas also makes Castellanos better).

phillychuck 2023-09-20 23:29:43 UTC #460

I think z has nailed this pretty well..statistics don't always tell the whole story, and a manager may trust his own perception of talent beyond what the stats say, especially when the stats are limited by sample size. I don't share Rob's enthusiasm for Cave, but he knows a lot more than I do...

allentown 2023-09-20 23:30:53 UTC #461

I think that's a stretch. He's just being stubborn.