Fangraphs puts us at 49% to make it with most of that being wild card at this point.
I think if we sweep we'll get in somewhere, but honestly who knows. So much comes down to the attitude of the teams who are already in. The Rays have clinched the division and have a two game lead over the twins for the 1 seed. Toronto is likely a more preferable opponent than Cleveland in a 3 game series given the disparity of Starting Pitching between those two so Tampa has motivation to win at least one game against us.
Their probables are Morton and Yarbrough with Sunday TBD. Snell would be on normal rest for Sunday if they need him. Nola vs Snell and a competent bullpen could be a fun matchup with something on the line for both teams. We will miss Glasnow so that something.
The Yankees are currently the fifth seed and would be on the road to the White Sox who are the fourth seed, but that seed could end up being the Twins or Cleveland, so there is motivation for the Yankees to move up for home field advantage for whatever thats worth. They have Happ going in game one against the Marlins and he has been very good apart from two rough outings. ERA of 3.25 on the season witha WHIl of 1.06, which is inflated by those two outings. Deivi Garcia likely to pitch in one of the other games, hes been fine. If they need him Cole would be available Sunday but that seems unlikely
The Twins have loads to fight for, Kenta Maeda will miss this series against Cincinatti but they have Berrios, Pineda and Hill all of whom would be the number 3 pitcher for the Phillies.They will likely have Mahle, Castillo and Gray going up against the Twins