MLB (Non-Phils) News and Notes 2016

[Slinging_Southpaw]

Hyun Soo Kim - I struggle with the idea that anyone would want to take on his contract when the player hasn't proved he can play at the MLB level. He has no MLB experience, the Orioles aren't playing him because of his inability to hit MLB pitching so why would the Phillies want to gamble on a player like that? And why would anyone think he is a decent hitting outfielder given his performance this spring?

The Orioles gave him a 2 year contract based on that. None of the Cubans that everyone is throwing money at has any Major League experience either.
I keep hearing everyone say "it's only money", this is a chance to back it up. It's not all that much money either.

[baseballoldie]

But Hyun Soo Kim now has some experience and the results have not been good. The Cuban players are getting this windfall of cash based on the results of other Cuban players that have had success but its clearly hit or miss, with some big misses (Olivera, Castillo) and a lot of hits. I would much rather take a flyer on a player that hasn't had any MLB experience than on a player like Hyun Soo Kim that already has shown little against MLB competition and comes with baggage in the sense of an unwillingness to go down to the minors to work on his game. I would expect Kim is headed back to Korea after this year with the Orioles buying out next year.

[LoneStarPhan]

It's only money, but if they are spending it, then I hope it is on a player that actually will hit well now. Not sure Kim is that player. But yes, I'd love to see them bring in a bat for the short term.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

But Hyun Soo Kim now has some experience and the results have not been good. The Cuban players are getting this windfall of cash based on the results of other Cuban players that have had success but its clearly hit or miss, with some big misses (Olivera, Castillo) and a lot of hits. I would much rather take a flyer on a player that hasn't had any MLB experience than on a player like Hyun Soo Kim that already has shown little against MLB competition and comes with baggage in the sense of an unwillingness to go down to the minors to work on his game. I would expect Kim is headed back to Korea after this year with the Orioles buying out next year.

15 AB's, 9 hits, .600/.647/.667, 1.314 OPS
That's not terrible in a SSS

[David_Criss]

Kim would need some AAA time, I would think.

[baseballoldie]

Which Kim is unwilling to accept. That's the problem with his contract. Orioles wanted to send him down to work on things but his contract allows him to block a demotion to the minors and he blocked it. So the Orioles are stuck with him.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

I doubt the O's would trade Hyun Soo Kim. Didn't he sign just before Christmas? Way way way to early for them to give up on him is my thought process if I am the Orioles.

I'd agree with this, if he had allowed them to send him to AAA, but they're playing him once every 5 or 6 days(not how treat someone you're all in on.). Rickard has slowed down after a hot start, so he may start seeing more time in LF soon. Also, Pedro Alvarez has been terrible at DH so far, so he could start to see some AB's there, but he had 3 hits on 4/30 and didn't get into another game until 5/5. That's how you treat someone in the dog house.

[schooldoc]

Stephen Strasburg won't be a free agent after the season. Instead, he signs an extension with the Nats for 7 years, $175 million. There are opt-outs after year 3 (2019) and 4 (2020).

I had interest in him for the Phils.

si.com/mlb/2016/05/09/stephe ... even-years

[harrisburghusker]

Way too much for him

[flyers19rw]

Way too much for him

Especially with his health history. The Nats throw money around like crazy.

[el-pietro]

Bryce Harper was just thrown out for something he apparently he said from within the dugout. Commentary team think the called strike three to Espinosa was high (it wasn't).

Harper claiming he said nothing. Even if he did, I have no idea how the ump could pick out Harper over anyone else. He was behind several people.

Doesn't matter though as the next at bat is a walk off home run for Washington.

I've never heard the Nationals broadcast team before. I don't care for them. Felt very biased.

[schooldoc]

Nats broadcast team is awful, has been for years.

With this signing of Strasburg, they'll have to commit something in the neighborhood of $100 million a year to three players (Scherzer, Stras, Harper) beginning in 2019 if they want to keep Bryce Harper. Wow...

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[andyb]

The contract is a little below market. AAV significantly less than Price (7/217) and Grienke (6/206).

This is a good value for the Nats even with the opt out which is the cost of doing business these days.

They were always going to have trouble signing Harper for $40 million plus a year, so at least they retained the next best thing. People always discount baseball inflation which has been running 10% a year the last decade and I would be shocked it is less than 5% a year for the next 7. While the Nats look like they will eventually lose their TV dispute with the Orioles, a loss will still get them an extra $30-$40 million a year.

If I could have signed Strasburg for this deal for the Phillies in the offseason I would have done it in a second. It is a bigger hometown discount than we gave Hamels for someone who arguably is better.

[zambonir]

Yup, I don't think I've ever seen anyone on this board reflexively respond to an elite free agent deal with, "good contract." They are never ideal contracts, but they are almost always fair market value (and fair relative to revenue).

[harrisburghusker]

You go 7 years which is the problem for someone with Strasburg's injury history. I wonder how many times he's going to make all of his starts through those 7 year.

And yeah, Bob Carpenter is horrible

[Austinfan]

Worse than that, I'd never give an opt out, if he stays healthy and pitches well, it's a four year deal, if he gets hurt, you're stuck with the deal. And it's almost impossible to buy injury insurance these days.
At best you "break even," at worst, you lose big.

Nor is inflation going to continue, sports are driven by ad revenue, which has migrated to the internet (now up to 50%).
There is simply little room to grow revenues for ML baseball or hockey, the NBA has a greater international potential, but the NFL doesn't travel well. The big deals have been done, buyer's regret will set in, and revenues will plateau.

[andyb]

Worse than that, I'd never give an opt out, if he stays healthy and pitches well, it's a four year deal, if he gets hurt, you're stuck with the deal. And it's almost impossible to buy injury insurance these days.
At best you "break even," at worst, you lose big.

Nor is inflation going to continue, sports are driven by ad revenue, which has migrated to the internet (now up to 50%).
There is simply little room to grow revenues for ML baseball or hockey, the NBA has a greater international potential, but the NFL doesn't travel well. The big deals have been done, buyer's regret will set in, and revenues will plateau.

Simply saying sports inflation will go away is head in the sand logic. It might not be 10% a year, but it certainly will be at least 5% on average. We might all be getting our baseball from MLB.com in 10 years. That is a whole lot of Internet money that could replace advertising dollars (which themselves will never go away - have you seen all the advertising at the ballpark lately?). There is a huge amount of untapped international money.

This is as good a big money contract as there can be. The Nats get a pitcher who is currently and pitching very well. Strasburg has never had a bad year in his career (highest ERA of 3.46 lifetime). He has been worth over 15 WAR in a career spanning 6+ years in which he lost one year plus to the TJ surgery and another cumulative half season to minor injuries. In his 4 post-TJ years he was worth close to 12 WAR. AAV is $25 million. I suspect that is back-loaded a bit as most contracts are. So while you talk about the risk of him leaving after the opt-out, it actually might be a benefit. The 3 years before the opt-out are Strasburg's age 28, 29, and 30 seasons. He is liable to be healthy and very, very good in those seasons. Would you sign Strasburg for 3 years and $65-$70 million total. I would in a second without thinking twice. Then if he wants a 7-year deal for more money in 3 years you simply let him go because those would be his age 31-37 seasons - much more risky than 28-34.

You have never liked a big contract for any team. Your predictions on baseball revenues have not come true in the past and seem unlikely to come true in the future. Getting a star for a below market contract (he'll be the 7th highest paid starter in baseball) who is in the middle of his prime years is a good deal. The Nats seem to think they can manage the financial pieces. The baseball pieces are a huge win for them.

[flyers19rw]

One would think that the Nats would have learned from the Werth signing, that risky contracts often blow up in your face. The opt out is the problem. If he performs well over the next four seasons and thinks that he could get Price/Greinke money or better, he can pull out of the deal. If he blows out his arm, the Nats are stuck with the contract. We've seen the problems with signing pitchers, especially power arms that already have had surgery, into their mid thirties (Strasburg will be twenty-eight in July). If the Phillies had made this move, I wouldn't have been overly excited about it.

[andyb]

One would think that the Nats would have learned from the Werth signing, that risky contracts often blow up in your face. The opt out is the problem. If he performs well over the next four seasons and thinks that he could get Price/Greinke money or better, he can pull out of the deal. If he blows out his arm, the Nats are stuck with the contract. We've seen the problems with signing pitchers, especially power arms that already have had surgery, into their mid thirties (Strasburg will be twenty-eight in July). If the Phillies had made this move, I wouldn't have been overly excited about it.

The Werth contract was a little overpriced, but it would be a mistake to term it a bad deal for the Nats. He gave them 2 legitimately great years. The first couple of years he was a little disappointing, but was still a positive WAR player. The last 2 years have seen him slip defensively but that is the price you pay for a long term deal. One could argue that he gave them credibility, filled a position of need, and that they had the money to spend on something.

Also, I have not seen much evidence that long term deals for power pitchers have fared worse than deals for guys that throw less hard. Often the power pitchers can still win if they throw 93 instead of 96. The non power guys can have trouble slipping from 92 to 89. There are lots of comps for Strasburg that work out if you look at performance in age 28-34 seasons. Sabathia and Verlander for instance look like cautionary tales now, but they would have been fine under the Strasburg contract for age 28-34. Here is the WAR by year from age 28-34:

Sabathia: 6.2, 4.6, 7.5, 3.5, 0.3, -0.6, 1.0 = 22.5 total
Verlander: 8.4, 7.8, 4.6, 1.1, 2.2, -0.1, TBD = 24.0 total so far

Each WAR is worth somewhere between $8 and $9 million today. Over the next 7 years it would be conservative to say they would average $10 million. The chances of Strasburg earning 17-18 WAR over the course of 7 years is pretty good. It does not matter if he is injured and ineffective for 2 years if he is really good for 3 or 4. And the chances of that happening from ages 28-30 are pretty good.

[jferry46]

I love the opt-out. If he pitches well and wants out after 3-4 years, good for him. You got his prime years at market value, let some other team overpay for the downside of his career.

Of course, if he gets hurt, you lose big time but that's the case whether he has an opt-out or not.