Minor League Games - Thursday, August 17, 2017

[allentown]

Although at this time last year, there were board members comparing valentin and kingery and who was the better prospect

I know. I was one of them.

[bigegypt0417]

Although at this time last year, there were board members comparing valentin and kingery and who was the better prospect

I know. I was one of them.

And it was a valid debate at the time. It also points to why drafts take a while to work themselves out.

[andyb]

It was definitely a valid debate at the time. I took it as an example where scouting reports and tools were just as important as stats at various levels relative to age. Valentin as the kid of a major leaguer had some advantages that allowed him to move fairly quickly through the early minors. Kingery also moved relatively quickly for a college player. A HS draftee does have an age advantage potentially at each level but that is mitigated somewhat when the HS pick is very polished (like the kid of a major leaguer). They move through the lower minors more quickly because they already know lots of what is taught there.

Now Kingery's power is a bit of a surprise (though he seems to be settling down and looking more like a 12-15 HR guy). He always had scouts touting his athleticism, defense, and general hitting ability. He moved quickly and had relatively short 1-2 month adjustments at the beginning of most levels. All those things contributed to the view that he was better than Valentin even though Valentin had an edge in age/level raw stats.

[schooldoc]

Moniak almost has to be playing through some kind of injury in order to be this bad. I just have this feeling we will hear about it after the minor league season ends, with his continuing to play justified by the reasoning that the Phillies wanted him to experience a full minor league season and that learning to play through nagging injuries is all part of the process. Short-sighted and silly? Yes. Something the Phillies would do/say? I wouldn't put it past them.

[fish]

It doesn't matter where you are and what your circumstance...you have to wait several years to judge a draft. Why does where you are in a rebuild matter?

If you are drafting late and forfeiting picks, yes, it will take longer to judge. But when you are drafting as early as the Phils have, you have access to the best players. The cream, more often than not, rises to the top quickly. Very good players usually show they can play from the get-go.

I'm not saying everyone picked in the last 3 years is a bust, but you can compare what other teams are doing and have done to realize this isn't going very well.

[bigegypt0417]

Moniak almost has to be playing through some kind of injury in order to be this bad. I just have this feeling we will hear about it after the minor league season ends, with his continuing to play justified by the reasoning that the Phillies wanted him to experience a full minor league season and that learning to play through nagging injuries is all part of the process. Short-sighted and silly? Yes. Something the Phillies would do/say? I wouldn't put it past them.

Or he's just super tired and they have decided to push him further so he understand what he needs to prepare for this off-season. It doesn't always have to be sinister.

[bigegypt0417]

It doesn't matter where you are and what your circumstance...you have to wait several years to judge a draft. Why does where you are in a rebuild matter?

If you are drafting late and forfeiting picks, yes, it will take longer to judge. But when you are drafting as early as the Phils have, you have access to the best players. The cream, more often than not, rises to the top quickly. Very good players usually show they can play from the get-go.

I'm not saying everyone picked in the last 3 years is a bust, but you can compare what other teams are doing and have done to realize this isn't going very well.

Anecdote aside...when you draft a bunch of top picks and they are HS players it will take longer.

Draft position may shorten the timeline somewhat but not enough for you to make a judgment this fast.

[schooldoc]

I don't think your theory and mine are that far off except for the use of the word "sinister," which implies some conscious desire on the Phillies' part to hurt the kid. I don't think that at all. I would say that if he's "super-tired," it might be a wise decision to just shut him down rather than risk injury or further erosion of his confidence that another 2-3 weeks of play might bring about. Based on the data already available to us (Moniak's 2nd half performance to this point), I think it's already clear to him and the team that he needs to build endurance to play Feb-Sept. What does another 2-3 weeks really prove?

[bigegypt0417]

I don't think your theory and mine are that far off except for the use of the word "sinister," which implies some conscious desire on the Phillies' part to hurt the kid. I don't think that at all. I would say that if he's "super-tired," it might be a wise decision to just shut him down rather than risk injury or further erosion of his confidence that another 2-3 weeks of play might bring about. Based on the data already available to us (Moniak's 2nd half performance to this point), I think it's already clear to him and the team that he needs to build endurance to play Feb-Sept. What does another 2-3 weeks really prove?

Short-sighted and silly? Yes. Something the Phillies would do/say? I wouldn't put it past them.

Kind of seemed like you were hinting the Phillies are intentionally letting him play hurt.

Further eroding of his confidence?

Man, these kids are made of tissue paper it seems.

lol

[andyb]

I am fine with Moniak playing while he is struggling. It is all part of the learning process as long as he is healthy. Maybe he is pressing now since he sees Haseley playing the same position. He could even have started pressing right after the draft because drafting Haseley could easily have been seen as threatening and he is a 19-year-old kid who can read what is on the internet.

I think Moniak is still a very good prospect. Higher ceiling and more likely to stick in CF than Haseley. But it is also becoming quite apparent that he was not the best choice we could have made. There is a reason teams select college players with really high draft picks unless the HS players blow you away. Moniak does not have the tool to blow you away since he does not have that much power. The hit tool being more raw than imagined is on the Phillies scouts. They just look like they were wrong about that. He is not that rare "safe" but only "medium" ceiling HS talent. He is more of a typical raw HS pick with a mid-level ceiling.

[fish]

Anecdote aside...when you draft a bunch of top picks and they are HS players it will take longer.

Draft position may shorten the timeline somewhat but not enough for you to make a judgment this fast.

I just feel that the reason a draft is hard to evaluate is because you can't really tell who is a performing well in the lower levels that will flame out in the upper levels. Significantly less-so because a guy under-performing at the lower levels may be a better performer in the upper levels.

Sure- every once in a while you get a guy who isn't great in the minors and matures into a good big leaguer in the second half of their 20s, but that's more like bonus.