Minor League Games - Monday, July 24, 2017

fish 2017-07-25 03:19:26 UTC #61

Sanchez' velocity was typical, and he got his fastball near the zone regularly. The breakingball was slurvy- not that good except that he was throwing it hard. Change flashed good, mostly because it was a good change off his fastball with decent arm speed. He looked to be flying open tonight making it appear that he was throwing with more effort than he usually does. Up in the zone quite a bit as a result.

zambonir 2017-07-25 03:22:57 UTC #62

Heh, my answer was gonna be "not be a 1B."

bkox 2017-07-25 03:24:59 UTC #63

Yeah thats a good point. First 1B is #23 but hes also listed as /lhp. Then Smith at 41.

bkox 2017-07-25 03:32:33 UTC #64

Quick synopsis:

Braves and White Sox lead with 9 in the top 100 each. Phillies have 6, 3 teams, including the Marlins, have 0 in the top 100.

Sixto was one of the biggest gainers. Crawford the second biggest faller (their term)

Austinfan 2017-07-25 03:59:11 UTC #65

Both. About a decade ago the Phillies had a kid like that who looked great in the low minors, I thought he had a real chance, until someone pointed out he lacked bat speed.
Since then I've gotten more skeptical about rookie and even A ball performance, you can "fake" your way through in the lower levels, junk ball pitchers and disciplined hitters do it all the time.
In AA, you see a lot of ML quality FBs and if you can't handle a 93-95 MPH FB, they'll pound you all day.

andyb 2017-07-25 04:04:12 UTC #66

Players with good plate discipline usually dominate the low minors. Young pitchers can't throw strikes with their offspeed stuff. A hitter with discipline will draw lots of walks AND get lots of fastballs to hit in favorable counts. It is in the upper levels where you get a read on them when they face pitchers who can throw strikes with multiple pitches.

Nothing to get excited about with Listi. He's older than Crawford. Would really need to get to Reading next year to be even close to age appropriate.

Austinfan 2017-07-25 11:34:39 UTC #67

Of course he's older, he's a college player.
No college junior will be "age appropriate" by your standards, much less a college senior.

Schneier, Guthrie and Fitch are all 21 at Williamsport. Whereas Oritz is 18, and most HS players are in their second season (after GCL) and are 19-20.
Now Listi is old, he's 23, had a breakout season as a senior, so he's worth watching to see if that was just being older or a sign he figured something out that could carry over to professional ball.
Since part of that breakout season was better plate discipline, it could have been an artifact of taking advantage of younger college pitchers.

I take the Missouri attitude, I don't conclude a player can't play, but whether they're a LA player or overage college player, "show me."
If Listi is for real, he'll hit both A ball teams next year and be in Reading in 2019 and Philly in 2020.

andyb 2017-07-25 11:58:52 UTC #68

But there is just a 99.9% he is not for real. Nothing he does in Williamsport means that much and it is not like he is even tearing up the place for a first baseman. If you want to look at a college pick who might be a little better than anticipated look at Colby Fitch. Listi is a curiosity more than anything else. Great kid who is probably a good influence on these clubs but unfortunately little chance of making it.

Austinfan 2017-07-25 12:06:12 UTC #69

But that's why we follow the minor league boxscores - to be the first to identify the "1%."
Even a highly touted HS player has maybe a 5% chance outside the 1st round.

Squire 2017-07-25 12:39:41 UTC #70

The only omission from the MLB.com Top 30 to me is Andrew Pullin. I know he hasn't had the best first month at AAA but still everyone else gets and adjustment month so he should too. I think he is in the 20-30 range for me.

allentown 2017-07-25 12:45:33 UTC #71

That's a very good representation from Phillies. I wonder where Williams would rank had he not been promoted. With our lower minors depth, that's enough #30-100 2nd tier prospects to rank us in the top 5-6 orgs.

andyb 2017-07-25 12:59:21 UTC #72

Well Williams is behind Haseley on their top 30 list, so I am guessing they would have put him in the 125 range. Not that it really matters. His rating fell last year and this year he started to play better a month into the AAA season - then got promoted. So the better play really did not have the right timing to sink in for those who do the rankings. Everyone is of course concerned about the BB/K ratio but he seems to be getting better at working counts and laying off pitches.

I definitely feel better about our short term outfield of Williams, Herrera, and Altherr. Even Cozens could fit into a rotation at some point next season as several players can play CF and if we have a RH first baseman in Hoskins then Cozens could be the backup there as well. Add Quinn as the defensive and pinch running backup and it is a pretty exciting young outfield that is deep enough to play through any injuries. Unlike last year where half of the OFs we ran out would make you want to cringe.

bigegypt0417 2017-07-25 13:16:04 UTC #73

Well....you mean watch it for AA and above and 23 year olds playing with high school graduates.

You have already said we dismiss most things until Reading...

phillychuck 2017-07-25 13:29:22 UTC #74

OK, I did some googling and can't find a source--do any of you know of a college senior draftee who has made it to the big leagues as an impact player? Would Listi be the first?

I'd estimate his chance to be a major leaguer at significantly worse than 0.5% as a college senior draftee who is old for his class.

Rooting for him if for the story alone!

andyb 2017-07-25 14:04:08 UTC #75

It is rare but I am guessing 4-year seniors make it ever year. The one I can remember without googling was Khalil Greene who got better in his senior year and went from the 14th round as a junior to being a 1st round pick the next year:

I actually consider Listi more like a 22-year-old because he took a year off, but still as a first baseman being overage he SHOULD be putting up a 900+ OPS in Williamsport. Nice story and I do root for him. But older players just generally are not that good and what Listi is doing is most likely a more advanced idea of what to do at the plate which is what you would expect from an older player.

And I think Ortiz might really belong in our top 10 now.

nycphils 2017-07-25 14:18:34 UTC #76

Agree. Can't understand how he could be put in the 20s for our prospects.

bigegypt0417 2017-07-25 14:24:24 UTC #77

I'm sure at the time they were compiling the list there wasn't much available about Ortiz..

his AB's are fun to watch and so many of them end up on twitter.

California_Dreamin 2017-07-25 14:40:44 UTC #78

allentown...I hope you are right in your minor league rankings [top 5-6] but my sense is that we are dropping and that we might not be even top 10 right now. I sure hope I am wrong because since that night nearly two years ago when Hamels was moved I have been super gung ho on our minor league system.

But my sense is that with promotions [Williams, Eflin, Lively, Perkins, Pinto, Pivetta etc] plus a few guys who have had poor seasons up to now [Crawford, Alfaro, Encarnacion, Pujols, Thompson], and our not overly ambitious drafting [safe but not risk taking] and Latin American signings [again, safe and sane but not aggressive] we have dropped several notches.

I base this a lot on the general comments of people like Law, Manuel and Sickels, guys who really scout the minors. Off the top of my head I am sure we rank behind the Braves, White Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Rays, Brewers, Nats and Astros and maybe 1-2 more.

That said, I am encouraged by this years draft, the Phils seem to have picked up a half dozen solid hitting prospects and Seabold looks promising off his early returns. Of course, the rapid rise of Sanchez certainly helps also.

Would be interested in how others on this site who follow the minors closely rank our system. I am open to having my mind changed [would welcome it!] and acknowledge that the last couple of weeks have soured me a bit on whats happening down on the pharm [that 0-5 night a couple of days ago really made me feel we are regressing this summer,]

bigegypt0417 2017-07-25 14:47:52 UTC #79

Our minor league system is full of prospects no matter where the rankings put us. There is no way to look at what we have and care even a little about the rankings. We haven't had this much talent at so many levels in a long time...

Austinfan 2017-07-25 14:48:29 UTC #80

2012 article:

As of Wednesday morning, 917 players had appeared in at least one big-league game this season, according to STATS LLC. Of that group, only 39 — or 4.3 percent — were confirmed by their teams of MLB as having obtained four-year college degrees through a FOXSports.com survey of clubs. However, many got those degrees after being drafted.

Odds are low for two reasons, self-selection, the better players have left school, and age prejudice, since a senior is older, he starts out with a black mark and doesn't get the benefit of the doubt.

To me, the best bets as college seniors:
1) players coming off injuries who stayed in college to show they were healthy
2) SPs with good FBs who lack secondary pitches but are good RP prospects
3) guys who make a big jump their senior year, similar to what Kingery has done in the minors, had they been drafted as juniors the year before, that jump would have come in A ball.