Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

[bigegypt0417]

I guess one thing about not getting the 1.1 pick is that in any draft, the best player to come out of the draft is more often than not, not the first pick. That said, getting the first pick puts the pressure squarely on the Phillies to make the best choice. If they pick in the top couple, they should be able to get a really fine player. Of course, picking first is great and it does carry on to each of the succeeding rounds.

When is there not pressure to make the right pick no matter where you pick in the first round?

[zambonir]

Given how badly things have gone it would be a drag to just miss out on it (and even more of a drag to drop below 3rd, unlikely though that seems).

[bigegypt0417]

NM wrong thread

[teabag259]

Agree with Squire. Getting 1-1 is the most important thing remaining this season.

[zambonir]

I'll be surprised if the White Sox don't take it. And disappointed if the Giants do.

[allentown]

Getting 1-1 is the most important thing remaining this season

I just don't see that happening.

[zambonir]

Every time I think they're going to let it slip away they surprise me. And have you seen tonight's line-up?

[schooldoc]

I certainly want 1/1 and I think Chicago (48 wins to the Phils' 45) is the main threat to steal it from us.

San Fran (51 wins) does play a tough schedule in Sept. against their contending division rivals, but they've played close to .500 ball since the AS break and Bumgarner gives them a chance to beat anybody every 5 days.

It's almost impossible for the Phils to fall out of the top 3.

[bkox]

Philllies remaining schedule has them facing the Cubs for 3, Dodgers for 4, and Washington for 7. Besides the Dodgers, Cubs and As, the entire rest of the schedule is against the NL East.

I assume the Dodgers should be good for us to go 0-4 or 1-3.. BUT.. they will have clinched their division and possibly even best record in MLB by the time they face us in late Sept. So some starters may be getting a rest.

[zambonir]

It's baseball, you just never know. The Phillies might have some fun spoiling though I guess there isn't really even anything at stake for the Nats (not even a seed).

But if they'd lost every game to the Giants that would have been quite the blow (SF currently 51-76 to the Phillies 45-79; that could have been 53-74 to 43-81.But that's still a pretty good "lead" if it was for a wild card berth.)

[harrisburghusker]

9 games left against the Nationals will help

[allentown]

We've still got the lead, but I'm expecting we go 1.2, with the Sox taking 1.1. S.F. is now over .400.

[zambonir]

The Phillies now have a solid 4 game lead over Chicago. I'm sure someone could crunch the probabilities there, and schedule would be a big part of it, but by comparison, Fangraphs says the Yankees have just an 8.5% chance of winning their division at 4.5 games back, and the Brewers a mere 2.8% at 3 games back.The Brewers' wild card probability (at 3.5 games back) is just 8.9%.

So, while we may be guided by our natural pessimism ("they can't even get the pick!") and optimism (we like the players, perceive the team to be improving especially if the injured guys come back) and we've all seen bigger "leads' evaporate the truth is they have a commanding margin and are still on pace to lose 100 games.

[harrisburghusker]

when can we start talking about magic numbers?

[bigegypt0417]

when can we start talking about magic numbers?

not sure we'll be able to do that...the white sox are equally wretched...

[kmc1019]

Just hope for the Phillies to lose each series the rest of the way, even if 2 games to 1. A .333 winning percentage would actually make our record worse (currently at .365) and should be enough to remain in the, er...."front" of the pack.

[LoneStarPhan]

White Sox have now won 3 in a row and moved over .400 (.402) winning percentage. This leaves the Phillies as the only team in MLB under .400 at .370 after the win over the Cubs to start this weekend series.

The reverse standings stand at

Phillies 47-80 .370
White Sox 51-76 .402
Giants 52-77 .403
Reds 55-74 .426
Tigers 55-72 .433
Athletics 55-72 .433

The Phillies are the only MLB team that hasn't won 50 and that has lost 80 games to this point of the season. With 35 games to go, they will end up 60-102 if they continue at the .370 pace. Of course, if they want to avoid losing a hundred, they need 16 more wins. 16 or 35 requires them playing .457 baseball over the remainder of the season.

[zambonir]

Magic # is probably 30 or so right? When do we usually start tracking them in the traditional direction?

[phillychuck]

You get the magic number (either way) by adding wins of one team plus losses of the other and subtracting from 163. At the top of the standings, it's wins of the leader + losses of the trailing team, therefore at the bottom it's losses of the "leader" + wins of the "trailing" team, so right now it's 163-80-51, so the current magic number is 32.

[teabag259]

We need the good teams that we face (I.e. the Cubs) to keep beating us.