July 2, 2017 International Signing Period

[allentown]

This seems like the sort of pitcher who would just miss the 40-man.

[andyb]

And prospects like that just have little value to teams with depth (which we do).

This glut of middle infielders on our 40 is also crying out for a trade. Someone like Eleizer Alvarez is actually a top 30 prospect but has little value with his options clock started and likely utility player ceiling. In other words if he is not going to be much better than Floriman he is not that valuable even though he is a top 30 prospect since he'll probably use up his options before he is ready.

I think the Phillies did get a decent haul in this international period. They have just not been aggressive about maximizing that haul. Same thing in 2016, We were more aggressive in 2015 but that was more about one player (Ortiz). When we have had the opportunity to be more aggressive in 2016 and 2017 we have not been so far. We had the top pool in 2016 and were satisfied with it rather than wanting to add another $2 million plus to it by trading for slots.

[zambonir]

The fact that they haven't been that aggressive is what makes me think it's as much Sal as Klentak. That there simply wasn't anyone else he wanted to sign, or the team had already reached a limit of how many players it felt the development system could accomodate. It just doesn't make sense given the tiny amount of money involved and the availability of allocation. I think if it turns out they need allocation, they'll get it, but the process is to identify the players Sal wants and the money first, not stockpile the money to use on whoever and whatever. Surely, with the Braves thing, they are working on it if they want it..

But Joseph is not a good candidate to be traded at the moment because he comes with the acquisition cost of fitting him on your roster. Even for the low price of allocation a team probably doesn't want him that badly. Ditto Appel (but if a team does want him they probably put a claim in during the DFA period, if so it might not be a team that has allocation to trade).

[andyb]

Sal may not be used to spending money. It is a different type of talent acquisition and we might be getting beat out on the better players since teams that were used to surpassing the pool limits (when that was legal) have more experience and better relationships with the agents that steer the $2 million plus signees.

I don't think we can say the team just decided the players they got were good enough. That is a cop out. We have not figured out how to be one of the top spenders in Latin America. We are efficient. But we are not producing a whole lot of stars with our approach. Ortiz might be the first one. Sixto does not count because his stardom is a combination of scouting and luck. We would have signed a player like Sixto regardless of what our pool limit was (and we probably would have expected a reliever that threw in the low 90s - hence the luck).

[zambonir]

Sal may not be used to spending money. It is a different type of talent acquisition and we might be getting beat out on the better players since teams that were used to surpassing the pool limits (when that was legal) have more experience and better relationships with the agents that steer the $2 million plus signees.

That's certainly possible. Of course our domestic scouting director also has a decade-plus of international connections/experience. With the Braves, no less.

[zambonir]

Report: Ohtani seeks proposals for best MLB fit

I would love to know if the Phillies are truly prepared to do this.

Balelo's memo asks for a team to evaluate Ohtani's talent as a pitcher and as a hitter; to explain its player development, medical training and player performance philosophies and facilities; to describe its minor league and spring training facilities; to detail resources for Ohtani's cultural assimilation into the team's city; to demonstrate a vision for how Ohtani could integrate into the team's organization; and to tell Ohtani why the team is a desirable place to play.

Each team was asked to provide its answers in both languages as soon as possible. Clubs were told not to include any financial terms of a possible contract.

[zambonir]

Brandon McCarthy (a well-known Twitter joker) makes the Dodgers' pitch

Brandon McCarthy (BMcCarthy32)

[andyb]

At least the Phillies are making a pitch:

Phillies make case to sign Shohei Ohtani

There is a case with the Phillies:
- young and rising team
- unlimited money to pay contract renewal
- RH first baseman would allow left-handed Ohtani to be the primary reserve
- Ohtani hitting MORE valuable in the NL because pitchers on average are bad hitters and Ohtani might not be much better than the average DH he would replace in the AL
- Young, analytically inclined manager and GM
- Enough starting options to realistically go to a 6-man rotation potentially
- Informed fans with their own message board (OK I have begun to reach....)

[teabag259]

I’d love to be proven wrong but I think the Phils are a year or two away from being in a position to get guys like Otani. There just isn’t enough tangible proof of success or imminent success...yet. Guy like him don’t normally sign with teams with long stretches of on field failures.

[zambonir]

That story doesn't actually say anything about them making their pitch. It has exactly no information about if and how the Phillies are presenting their case. The only people quoted in the story are the "associate director for special projects for the Japan America Society of Greater Philadelphia" and someone "who is affiliated with the Japanese Association of Greater Philadelphia."

It does mention that Kapler played in Japan, as did Charlie, and that they had Taguchi and Iguchi.

I get that this front office isn't especially interested in conducting business through the media and that is a good thing but it shouldn't be that hard to at least get a "front office source" to confirm they are working on the memo and offer some small crumb of what the Phillies have to offer, even if it's canned for public consumption. IMO, while i look forward to being proven wrong, they aren't actually trying very hard on this one. The top front office guys probably have better things to do, because they know this isn't happening.

[andyb]

I did laugh a little about the line of Manuel being beloved in Japan - where he played before Ohtani was born. If I were 23 years old I am not sure I would care too much about what the Phillies did in the 1980s for example

[zambonir]

I do think there's a strong case to be made for the NL. He wants to play the field. And in the AL it almost wouldn't make sense for him to bat on the day he pitched, though if he's that good (at both sides of the game) it probably doesn't matter if you lose the DH once late in the game (assuming you're winning).

People keep talking about how it would be hard to reconcile playing everyday with the off-day demands of being a starting pitcher but there isn't really one right way to train between starts, just one traditional way. I kind of think the team that gets him will be the team that is willing to throw out the book on that. A progressive approach to training, nutrition and recovery would certainly help there.

I'll tell you who should really be going after him is the Mets.

[andyb]

I kind of think he'll be a 750-800 OPS hitter. That adds huge value compared to a pitcher in the NL. But in the AL it is only a little better than an average DH so I don't think he would DH more than half the time (assuming he has a 3 day period of non hitting around starts - rest, pitch, rest).

Part of me also thinks that if his offense is really good you want to make him into an Andrew Miller type 2-inning reliever so he can be available to both hit and pitch on more days.

[Squire]

Braves just traded like 1.315 million in their current year international pool to the Angels.

[andyb]

Braves just traded like 1.315 million in their current year international pool to the Angels.

Technically $1.21 million for essentially picking up $5 million of a bad contract (Jim Johnson). Braves got a non-prospect. Angels got the allocations and Johnson.

So tell me again why the Phillies are not doing this?

[zambonir]

Because they haven't found a deal they can make? I mean yes, I get that they should be aggressive but they still have to have the right combination of something to trade, a team that wants what they have and a team that has allocation.

And in Atlanta's case I imagine they wouldnt want to help a division rival cherry-pick their own former players. Whereas the Angels said they did it specifically to offer it to Ohtani. I think the Phillies already know they don't have a real shot at him.

By contrast to that Zolecki article, Oakland:

A’s make official pitch to Japanese star Shohei Ohtani

[andyb]

Because they haven't found a deal they can make? I mean yes, I get that they should be aggressive but they still have to have the right combination of something to trade, a team that wants what they have and a team that has allocation.

And in Atlanta's case I imagine they wouldnt want to help a division rival cherry-pick their own former players

I am so tired of excuse-making like the reasoning here. Nothing personal. Obviously they have not found a match with another team yet. But we have money. Adding allocations is an efficient way to spend money. Other teams have allocations to trade with little cost. We also can easily swallow contracts like Johnson.

This should not be that hard. It is also not rocket science to know that this is the best way they can efficiently add future wins. If Klentak does not get allocations it is a black mark on his record. All the analytics say this is something he should do. And for the moment he is not doing that. At some point one needs to judge a GM on the moves they make. And Klentak has been pretty medioce so far. The Giles deal on balance looks like a disappointment. The deadline dealing in 2016 was a complete failure. 2017 was a bit better but we really did not deal any of the players like Rupp or Galvis where a creative GM would make something happen to improve the team. Drafting has not been wonderful so far (Randolph, Moniak and Haseley are all on Almaraz' watch and none looks like a bargain for the draft position they were selected in).

International allocations are only a small piece of the puzzle. But not trading for them would be a failure and this GM has more of those than successes so far.

[Austinfan]

Well, not quite a fail:
2015: 2-48 Kingery [though the rest of this draft is looking pretty weak]
2016: Moniak, Gowdy and Stobbe are all misses right now, but Irvin, Romero, Hall and Young are looking like steals

[zambonir]

I am so tired of excuse-making like the reasoning here. Nothing personal. Obviously they have not found a match with another team yet. But we have money. Adding allocations is an efficient way to spend money. Other teams have allocations to trade with little cost. We also can easily swallow contracts like Johnson.

Not taken personally. I'm not making an excuse, I just think it's the reality. Though, it's also not something we can criticize until the period is actually over.

They may, for instance, already know what they need to get the Braves guys they want. They may already know they have no shot at the higher-end guys, if they're actually going to get similar bonuses. Or maybe they just don't think it's worth doing, in which case you can continue to criticize them for that belief. I certainly don't think you can say "all the analytics" say they should do it when you don't have access to the team's internal data, or budget, or roster management or scouting reports.

I am just more open to the possibility that they have a reason to not do it. Assuming they don't do it. Because it can't be the money, or as far as we can tell, the inability to be able to get the allocation money

[allentown]

I certainly don't think you can say "all the analytics" say they should do it when you don't have access to the team's internal data, or budget, or roster management or scouting reports.

Of course we can say it. Whatever analytics they have and whatever scouting reports, spending the extra final 30-35% of international allocation available to them will yield more talent than not spending it. Once you have the equation and the data, baseball analytics has to work the same as maximization of any value equation. The goal is to get the most value from the available resources. If you decide to reduce the available resources, the total value will go down. Now, in most years you should get a bigger bang for your buck from the first 0-50% of allocation than from the final 100-150% of allocation, assuming the analytics and scouting reports are accurate. Still total value for 150% of allocation spend yields more value and if you leave some potential spend on the table, your final value will be less than it can and should be. This year may actually be the fairly unique case where the final 50% of allocation spend can be as good value/$ as the first 50% spend, since so many Braves signees have been suddenly liberated and Otani also has been added to the miss. If Klentak doesn't spend, he is letting another opportunity slip by to improve the team. The Phillies do way too much of that. I am hoping that the silence is a prelude to a significant stealth signing, rather than Klentak lethargy. It is a strange state of affairs when MacPhail and Klentak dissuade the owners from spending.